While generations born in the mid-20th century lived most of their lives in relatively stable climates, for children born today, extreme weather suitable for the spread of wildfires is becoming relentless. reality. Research study published in the magazine Environmental Research Letters reveals deep intergenerational inequality in exposure to this risk across Europe.

84 percent increase: The relentless math of climate change

According to scientists' findings, Europeans born in 2025 face an average of 3.2 years of longer exposure extreme fire weather than those born in 1950. This represents an average increase in lifetime risk of 84 %.

This difference is not just due to today's children living longer. A breakdown of the data showed that up to 86% of this increase across Europe is due to climate change itself and the increasing frequency of extremes. In the most affected southern European countries, climate change even explains more than 90 % the difference between generations.

Southern Europe on the front lines: Portugal's warning finger

The impacts are not evenly distributed. The most significant increase in exposure is projected in Southern and Eastern Europe, with parts of Western and Central Europe also affected.

The example of Portugal – one of the countries most at risk from forest fires in Europe – is particularly alarming:

• Generation 1950: A person born in 1950 in Portugal will spend approximately 10% of their lifetime exposed to extreme fire weather conditions. 3.4 years.
• Generation 2025: A child born in 2025 will spend up to 6.5 years – almost double.
• Regional extremes: In the most exposed inland regions of northeastern Portugal, lifetime exposure will increase by up to 2.5 times.

Every degree counts: What will additional warming bring?

The study uses a new open analytical tool dem4cli, which combines demographic data with climate risk models. The researchers used it to calculate how many additional days of extreme fire risk each 1°C of global warming will bring by 2100 for different age groups:

• To a person born in the year 1990 each degree of warming adds 68 days extreme fire weather during life.
• To a person born in the year 2000 adds 106 days.
• To a child born in 2025 However, every additional 1°C of warming adds up to 272 days (almost three-quarters of the year) of living in extremely dangerous conditions.

Climate policy as a protective shield for the youngest

Although younger generations are at the highest risk, at the same time have the most to gain from rapid and ambitious emission reductions.

Consistently meeting the Paris Agreement goals and limiting warming to 1.5°C would reduce the lifetime exposure of children born in 2025 in Portugal by more than one year (by 1.1 years) compared to current policy direction. On a European scale, this reduction would represent 1.3 years.

What legacy will we leave behind?

Extreme fire weather is not just a temporary seasonal fluctuation, but a burden that accumulates over a lifetime. Political decisions on emissions made today will directly determine the living conditions of children and future generations. Climate protection is therefore not just an abstract goal, but a preventive policy to protect the safety and health of the youngest generations. JRi&CO2AI