IPCC

Governments have postponed a decision on the timing of a climate science assessment at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) meeting for the third time, as they failed to reach a consensus on harmonization. (more…)

Climate risk assessment is key in quantifying and communicating risks in a clear and concise manner. Due to the rapidly occurring climate changes, the need for a more complex integration and a more effective overview of the available and relevant data that are part of these assessments, especially on the temporal and spatial dynamics of risk, is growing. In this paper, we describe the benefits, challenges and opportunities for increasing the availability of temporal and spatial data needed to support climate risk assessment through the development of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) atlas, integrated within IPCC working groups. We suggest that using a climate risk framework to organize this Atlas will result in a more practical resource for understanding and informing the risk assessments carried out by the IPCC, as well as making the methodologies and results more accessible to a wider audience. (Andrés Alegría, Elvira Poloczanska, Hans Poertne, more at nature.com)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses emissions scenarios to examine a range of future climate outcomes, but does not assign probabilities to individual scenarios. However, the IPCC authors have their own views on the likelihood of different climate outcomes, which are important to understand because the authors have expertise and considerable influence. Here we present the results of a survey of 211 IPCC authors on the likelihood of four key climate outcomes. We find that most authors are skeptical that warming will be limited to the Paris targets well below 2°C, but are more optimistic that net zero CO ₂ will be reached during the second half of this century. When asked about their peers' beliefs, the authors' responses showed strong correlations between personal and peer beliefs, suggesting that participants with extreme beliefs perceive their own estimates to be closer to the community average than they actually are. (Seth Wynes, Steven J. Davis, H. Damon Matthews, more at nature.com)

How hot will it be? This is one of the most important and difficult remaining questions about our changing climate. The answer depends not only on how sensitive our climate is to greenhouse gases, but also on how much carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases we choose to emit as a civilization in the coming decades.

To help think more clearly about this question, we asked authors who contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports to share their best guesses about where the world is headed. ( Seth Wynes, University of Waterloo, H. Damon Matthews, Concordia University, more at theconversation.com)

Delegates at the 61st meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in Sofia, Bulgaria failed to agree on a timetable for the upcoming seventh assessment report. At the week-long meeting, more than 230 delegates from 195 member governments returned to an outstanding topic from the previous meeting in January - finalizing the timetable for the IPCC's seventh assessment report cycle (AR7).

AR7 will be the last round of IPCC reports summarizing the latest published climate science. (More on carbonbrief.com)

The Seventh Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) can and must be ready in time for the Second Global Inventory (GST). The IPCC report plays a key role in assessing the science of climate change and informing government decisions, particularly in the context of multilateral negotiations.

GST is a key element of the Paris Agreement to assess the world's progress towards long-term climate goals. It must be conducted "in the light of fairness and the best available science", emphasizing the importance of IPCC assessments as the primary input for GST. (Youba Sokona, more at climatechangenews.com)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been successful in establishing the scientific evidence base for global debates on climate action. In an apparent attempt to emulate this model, the governments of the United Kingdom (UK) and South Korea released a preliminary 130-page independent expert report at the AI Security Summit in Seoul in May 2024. The interim report is touted as bringing together "for the first time ever... experts nominated by 30 countries, the European Union (EU) and the United Nations (UN) and other leading global experts to provide a common, evidence-based scientific basis for discussions and decisions on general AI Security'. (Caryn Sandler, Peter Waters, more at lexology.com)

A research team closes the information gap in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and presents surprising data. It is probably one of the most important climate protection questions: How much CO₂ can humans produce to keep the global temperature from rising by more than 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times? The Paris Climate Agreement states that every effort should be made to achieve this goal.

Now updated data from The Global Climate Change Initiative shows: The CO₂ budget is falling faster than expected. Humans can still produce around 200 billion tons of CO₂, otherwise there is a 50 percent chance that the Paris target will not be met.

In concrete terms, this means: With current global emissions of around 40 billion tonnes, the CO₂ budget will run out in 2029. If you want to stay “well below 2 degrees of warming”, as required by the Paris Agreement, you have more time: the CO₂ budget will then last until 2051. (Martin Läubli, more at bazonline.ch)

According to the latest IPCC report on climate adaptation, the disasters caused by the climate crisis are already worse than scientists originally predicted. And now scientists have presented evidence that further warming is blocked. This means that the risk of disasters will increase even if the world succeeds in curbing emissions of the greenhouse gases that drive a changing climate.

Here's the thing - a natural hazard like a flood or fire doesn't have to become a disaster. By proactively taking measures to reduce the risk that hazards pose, impacts can be managed while resilience is strengthened. WWF works to integrate environmentally responsible practices into disaster response, recovery, reconstruction and risk reduction programs and policies. (Daniel Vernick, more at worldwildlife.org)

Limiting climate change involves making informed policy decisions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created by the United Nations in 1988 to provide scientific information on climate change to policymakers around the world. The IPCC's secondary audience includes experts from science, education, business and non-governmental organizations, as well as representatives of the media and the general public worldwide. Celsius (Lynn 2018). (Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Lila Rabinovich, more at link.springer.com)

What is the basis of the mitigation measures in the assessment reports of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? What are integrated assessment models? Are these models governed by the principle of justice? Story so far: In a study published on March 4, researchers analyzed more than 500 future emissions scenarios that UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) evaluated in his latest reports. These scenarios relate to mitigation measures such as reducing carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels and increasing carbon sequestration through forestry. It found that in all 556 scenarios, disparities in income, energy consumption and emissions between developed and developing countries are projected to continue until 2050. (More on www.thehindu.com)

According to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), human activities have significantly affected the planet. As global emissions of greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide) continue to rise, so do global temperatures – with serious ecological consequences. Between 2011 and 2020, global surface temperatures rose an estimated 1.07 °C (2.01 °F) above the 1850–1900 average. At this rate, temperatures could increase further by 1.5 °C to 2 °C (2.7 °F to 3.6 °F), depending on whether we can reach net zero by 2050. (Matt Williams, Universe Today, More at phys.org)

Jim Skea, the new chairman of the influential of the UN Climate Science Panel , has doubts about the world's ability to meet the Paris Agreement's most ambitious temperature target, but wants to make it easier for governments to act.

The overall picture: In an interview with Axios, Skea said that policymakers are signaling that they need more information that could be more actionable, faster, than what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has historically produced.

• "It's a bit of an evolution for the IPCC to do that, especially when we're being asked not to be prescriptive policy, but to act," Skea said. "It's also a fine tightrope to walk on."
• For example, the next major assessment report is not scheduled to be completed and fully published until 2030, but countries have until 2028 to report to the global community on emissions reductions to date and set new reduction targets.
• The Nobel Prize-winning body is made up of volunteer scientists from around the world. The main question facing the IPCC is how much of the next report (or other scientific product) can be produced and delivered to policymakers in time for their deadline.

(Andrew Freedman)

The chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Jim Skea assured that scientists have long been warning about the harmful effects of climate change. Skea, elected IPCC chairman on July 26, spoke in Anadolu (AA) about the growing effects of global warming and the measures that need to be taken by 2030, which is being described as the "period of climate change action". "We are in a period of action until 2030. If plans for additional oil and gas reserves are approved, future governments will face a difficult choice between keeping fossil fuels underground and deciding to meet climate targets," he said. (AA / London / Nuran Erkul Kaya)

  IPCC WGI Interactive Atlas

A new tool for flexible spatial and temporal analyzes of most observed and projected climate change information, supported by Working Group I's contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, including a regional synthesis for climate impact factors (CIDs).

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A Scottish scientist has been chosen to lead one of the world's most influential bodies on climate change. Professor Jim Skea, from Dundee, has been elected chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Last year, the head of the UN called her work a "red code for humanity". Professor Skea said he was "humbled and deeply honoured" to be elected IPCC chair. The scientist, a former physics student at the University of Edinburgh, is Professor of Sustainable Energy at Imperial College London and co-founder of the UK Climate Change Committee. He was elected in the second round by a vote of 90 to 69 and will lead the IPCC through its seventh assessment cycle.

    Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), the IPCC aims to provide governments at all levels with scientific information that they can use in climate policymaking. IPCC reports are also a key input into international climate change negotiations. The IPCC is an organization of governments that are members of the UN or WMO. The IPCC currently has 195 members. Thousands of people from all over the world participate in the work of the IPCC. For the assessment reports, experts volunteer their time as IPCC authors to review thousands of scientific papers published each year to provide a comprehensive summary of knowledge about the drivers of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and how these risks can be reduced through adaptation and mitigation. Open and transparent peer review by experts and governments around the world is an essential part of the IPCC process to ensure an objective and complete assessment and to take into account diversity of opinion and expertise. Through its assessments, the IPCC identifies the strength of scientific consensus in various areas and indicates where further research is needed. The IPCC does not conduct its own research.

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The latest assessment of the climate system paints a clear picture of how human activity has led to unprecedented changes in the climate system.   A report on the science of climate change by the Intergovernmental panel for climate change (IPCC) in 2021 she described in detail the "unequivocal" role of humans and concluded that halting further warming would require "substantial and sustained" reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. While the IPCC reports provide politicians and governments with vital and authoritative evidence on climate change, the enormous time and effort that goes into them means that they are only updated every 5 to 10 years. (Dr Debbie Rosen, Prof Piers Forster)

Over-reliance on carbon capture and storage technology could lead the world to climate tipping points, the head of the world's climate science office has warned. Hoesung Lee, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said the use of technologies that capture or remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere was "no free lunch" and that countries should be careful. Lee noted that the IPCC found it likely that the global temperature could rise by more than 1.5°C from pre-industrial levels, but then return to below 1.5°C by the end of the century. "The jargon for that is overshooting," he said. “Methods to remove carbon dioxide will be in high demand if this exceedance actually occurs.” (Fiona Harvey)

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