Past, present and future forest growth has been, is and will be influenced by climate variability. This multifaceted relationship has been assessed in several regional studies, but spatially resolved large-scale analyses are largely lacking. Here we estimate recent changes in the growth of 5800 beech trees ( Fagus sylvatica L.) from 324 sites, representing the entire geographic and climatic range of the species. Future growth trends were projected considering the most modern climate scenarios. Validated models indicate a decline in growth over a large distribution area in recent decades and project significant future growth declines ranging from -20 % to more than -50 % by 2090, depending on the region and climate change scenario (i.e. CMIP6 SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Projected forest productivity losses are most pronounced towards the southern distribution limit. Fagus sylvatica , in regions where persistent high-pressure atmospheric systems are expected to increase drought severity. Projected growth changes in the 21st ^century in Europe indicate serious ecological and economic consequences that require immediate adaptation of forests. (Edurne Martinez del Castillo, Christian S. Zang, Martin de Luis, more on nature.com)

From tiny and impoverished Mayotte to oil-rich Saudi Arabia, prosperous European cities to overcrowded slums in Africa, nothing has been spared the devastating impact of supercharged climate disasters in 2024. (More on phys.org)

The new EU Deforestation Regulation requires companies trading in livestock, cocoa, coffee, oil palm, rubber, soy and timber, as well as products derived from these commodities, to carry out extensive due diligence along the value chain to ensure that the goods do not originate from recent (after 31 December 2020) deforestation, forest degradation or breaches of local environmental and social laws. Although the European Commission has proposed postponing the implementation of the EUDR by 12 months, companies should already consider the impact of the EUDR on their supply chain due diligence to prepare for the new obligations that apply from 30 December 2025. (Genevra Forwood, Clare Connellan, Sara Nordin, more at lexology.com)

Climate change is having far-reaching consequences for our environment, and one of the most striking manifestations is the changing patterns of intense precipitation, including atmospheric rivers. These narrow bands of concentrated moist air currents bring heavy rain and strong winds that can have devastating consequences, especially in coastal areas.

What are atmospheric rivers?

Atmospheric rivers are natural phenomena that transport moisture from tropical regions to higher latitudes. When the moisture from these currents is released as precipitation over land, it can lead to extreme flooding and soil erosion. Researchers have noted that as the planet warms, these phenomena are increasing in intensity and frequency.

The impact of rising temperatures

As global temperatures rise, the atmosphere's ability to hold moisture increases. This phenomenon, fueled by greenhouse gases, means that atmospheric rivers have the potential to carry more water and cause more damage. In areas such as coastal California and western Europe, these intense systems can cause significant material damage, threaten infrastructure and lead to loss of life.

Prepare for the future

Scientists warn that it is essential that we start preparing for these changing climate conditions. This requires improving early warning systems, strengthening protection measures in vulnerable areas and implementing effective water resource management systems. In addition, it is crucial that we step up efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which can help mitigate further global warming.

From a global perspective, it is essential that policymakers, scientists and society as a whole work together to develop strategies and solutions to mitigate the impact of these extreme weather events. It is clear that atmospheric rivers are just one of many examples of how climate change is reshaping our world and posing new challenges that we must effectively address. Spring

Climate change is causing glaciers to melt faster, leading to rising sea levels. Scientists are using modern technology to accurately track these changes and predict their consequences.

Satellite Technology and GPS Monitoring

Satellite technology plays a key role in monitoring changes in the ice sheets. Professor Shfaqat Abbas Khan from DTU Space uses data from 61 GPS stations located along the coast of Greenland, known as the GNET network. These stations, managed by the Danish Climate Data Agency, measure changes in the height of Greenland's mountains with an accuracy of one tenth of a millimeter. As the ice sheet melts, the pressure on the mountains decreases, causing them to rise. For example, in the period 2013–2023, some areas have seen an increase in height of up to 20 cm.

Postglacial Uplift

It is important to note that not all changes in the terrain are caused by the current melting of glaciers. After the last ice age, there is a so-called postglacial uplift, where the land is still "straightening" after the retreat of ancient glaciers. Senior researcher Valentina Barletta from the Center for Ice Sheet and Sea Level Prediction (CISP) emphasizes that the Earth behaves like memory foam: after the pressure is released, it slowly returns to its original shape. Therefore, measurements need to correct for the data on the uplift of the ground to accurately determine the contribution of the current melting of ice to the changes in the height of the terrain.

Sea Level Rise Prediction

Accurate measurements and models are needed to predict future sea level rise. Estimates for 2100 range from 20cm to 3m, depending on the rate of glacier melt and greenhouse gas emissions. Professor Khan, head of the Centre for Ice Sheet and Sea Level Prediction, stresses that without space technology we would not have the precise data needed to make these predictions.

Global Implications and the Need for International Cooperation

Rising sea levels pose a threat to coastal communities around the world. Accurate predictions are key to planning adaptation measures and mitigating the risks associated with climate change. International cooperation and the use of modern technologies are essential to effectively address current challenges. Spring

Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry totaled 37.01 billion metric tons (GtCO₂) in 2023. Emissions are projected to increase by 1.08 percent in 2024, reaching a record high of 37.41 GtCO₂. Global CO₂ emissions have increased by more than 60 percent since 1990.

Who are the largest issuers?

The largest contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions is China, followed by the United States. China has not always been the world's largest emitter, but rapid economic growth and industrialization in recent decades have seen emissions surge. Since 1990, China's CO₂ emissions have increased by almost 450 percent. By comparison, the United States' CO₂ emissions have fallen by 6.1 percent. However, the North American country remains the largest carbon polluter in history.

Global events cause emissions to drop

The COVID-19 outbreak caused global CO₂ emissions to fall by about 5.5 percent in 2020 due to lockdowns and other restrictions. However, this was not the only time in recent history when a major global event caused emissions to fall. For example, the global recession caused CO₂ levels to fall by almost two percent in 2009, while the recession of the early 1980s also had a significant impact on emissions. The largest annual percentage reduction was at the end of World War II in 1945, when emissions fell by 17 percent. (More on statista.com)

Recently published IPBES report (Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) provides new insights into the interconnectedness of biodiversity, food systems, water resources, health and climate. This comprehensive document highlights the need for an integrated approach to addressing global challenges and offers the following five key findings:

1. Biodiversity as the basis of sustainable ecosystems

Biodiversity is key to maintaining the ecosystem functions that support life on Earth. The report points out that healthy ecosystems are essential for ensuring food security and clean water resources, and therefore its protection is essential for sustainable development.

2. Linking food systems and climate

Food production is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Transforming food systems towards sustainable practices can reduce their environmental impact while improving population health and nutrition. The report calls for the implementation of agroecological methods and reducing food waste.

3. Pressurized water sources

The report warns of growing water scarcity due to climate change and inappropriate management. Efficient use of water resources and protection of freshwater ecosystems are essential to maintain their availability for future generations.

4. Health and the environment are interconnected

Human health is closely linked to the state of the environment. Degradation of ecosystems can lead to the spread of diseases and a deterioration in the quality of life. The report highlights the need to reduce environmental risks by preserving biodiversity and improving air and water quality.

5. Integrated approach to climate change

Addressing climate change must include protecting biodiversity and improving food and water security. The report recommends adopting policies that take into account the interlinkages between these areas and promote synergistic solutions.

These IPBES findings underscore the urgency of coordinated global action to ensure a sustainable future for all life on Earth. The report is a stark reminder that actions in one area affect many others, and that solutions need to be viewed holistically and in a way that takes into account interrelationships. Spring

Document provides a detailed overview of the key themes and ideas presented in the article “Cascading tipping points in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean” by Kubiszewski et al. (2024). The article focuses on eight potential tipping points in the Antarctic region that could have serious and irreversible consequences for Antarctica, the Southern Ocean, and the entire planet.

The Antarctic and Southern Ocean (A&SO) region plays a key role in the Earth's physical and biological systems. Human-induced climate change and other human activities in the region are leading to multiple potential interacting tipping points. The authors identify eight such points, which include:

• Physical: Ice sheets and ocean circulation
• Biological: Species displacement, invasive species and melting permafrost
• Chemical: Ocean acidification and pollution
• Social: Antarctic Treaty System (ATS)

Turning points

Each of the eight tipping points is discussed in detail in the article, outlining current trends and the potential consequences of crossing the tipping point.

Ice sheets:

• The main risk is marine ice sheet instability (MISI) and ice shelf collapse.
• This would lead to global sea level rise, changes in local primary production, disruption of benthic communities, and expansion of ice-free areas.

Ocean acidification:

• Increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are leading to ocean acidification.
• This threatens calcifying organisms, alters food chains and reduces fisheries production.

Ocean circulation:

• Melting ice sheets and changes in sea ice formation affect the density and nutrient content of ocean water.
• Slowing ocean circulation could disrupt the global transport of heat, gases, oxygen and nutrients.

Species movement:

• Changes in ocean temperatures and the expansion of ice-free areas are leading to the displacement of species.
• This can lead to the loss of species, the emergence of new ecosystems, and the homogenization of ecosystems.

Invasive species:

• Human activity and climate change increase the risk of invasive species introduction.
• Invasive species can compete with endemic species, alter ecosystems and lead to biodiversity loss.

Permafrost:

• Melting permafrost releases ancient viruses, bacteria, and other microorganisms.
• These microorganisms represent potential pathogens that could spread through polar food chains and threaten human health.

Pollution:

• Human activities in Antarctica, as well as the long-distance transport of pollutants, lead to air, water and soil pollution.
• Pollution threatens biodiversity, leads to bioaccumulation and biomagnification of pollutants, and increases the risk of oil spills.

Antarctic Treaty System:

• Increasing development pressures, geopolitical tensions, and worsening environmental pressures are weakening the ATS.
• A weakening of the ATS could lead to reduced environmental protection, increased pollution, and impaired cooperation between nations.

Breakpoint interactions

The authors emphasize that the tipping points in Antarctica are interconnected. A change at one point can trigger a cascade of changes at other points.

For example:

• Melting ice sheets affect ocean circulation, species distribution, and the functioning of the ATS.
• Climate change and pollution increase the risk of invasive species introduction and accelerate the melting of permafrost.
• A weakening of the ATS could lead to increased pollution and disruption of ecosystem protection.

Consequences of exceeding breaking points

The authors warn that crossing tipping points in Antarctica would have serious and irreversible consequences for the global Earth system. In addition to global sea level rise, it could lead to:

• Disruption of global climate and ocean circulation
• Loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services
• Increased risk of disease and threats to human health
• Geopolitical instability and conflict

Conclusion

The authors emphasize the need to better understand the interactions between Antarctic tipping points and their potential implications for the global Earth system. They also emphasize the importance of strengthening the ATS and taking action to mitigate climate change and reduce pollution.

Quotes from the article

• “The Antarctic and Southern Ocean (A&SO) region is one of the most remote parts of our planet. However, it is also one of the most important for the regulation and stability of climate and oceans.” (Kubiszewski et al., 2024)
• “If any one of the Antarctic ice sheets were to tip over, it would put significant pressure on many of the other fault points.” (Kubiszewski et al., 2024)
• “Antarctic tipping points pose a significant danger to global society.” (Kubiszewski et al., 2024)

Additional information

The article also includes a table summarizing the characteristics of each tipping point, including driving variables, thresholds, time frames, and potential impacts.

In addition, the article includes maps that show the location of human activities and potential tipping points in Antarctica.

We call for action

The authors call for further research, strengthened international cooperation, and action to protect the Antarctic region and mitigate global threats. Spring

The stakes couldn’t be higher. Climate change is not a distant or theoretical threat – it’s here. The past two years have been a stark reminder of this reality, with 2023 becoming the warmest year on record, soon to be surpassed by 2024. From unprecedented floods in Valencia and central Europe to droughts in southern Europe, the warning signs are clear: we must act now. Beyond the human suffering – which is priceless – all these events show that the costs of inaction are far greater than the costs of taking action now. (More on eea.europa.eu)

Carbon emissions from fossil fuel pollution continued to rise slightly in 2023 to 36.8 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide, setting another new record despite increasingly urgent warnings from scientists about the need for sharp and immediate reductions.

Preliminary estimates compiled as part of the Global Carbon Budget project indicate that the amount of carbon dioxide (CO ₂ ) released into the atmosphere by fossil fuels will increase by another 0.8 % in 2024, which would increase annual emissions to 37.4 billion metric tons of CO ₂ .  (More on noaa.gov)

The European Climate Foundation (ECF) is a foundation (Stichting) under Dutch law. The ECF was established in The Hague in early 2008 as a major philanthropic initiative under the name “Stichting European Climate Foundation”.

Our mission is to support organizations and activities that improve lives, influence the public debate on climate action, facilitate urgent and ambitious policies in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement, and help ensure a socially responsible transition to a sustainable economy in Europe and around the world. (More on europeanclimate.org)