The world in 2025 faces not only gradual warming but also the potential activation of critical “tipping points” in the climate system. These points represent thresholds beyond which sudden and often irreversible changes can occur. changes with large-scale global impacts. Two of the most significant threats looming are the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the possibility of large-scale volcanic eruptions.

Weakening and potential collapse of the AMOC

One of the key and critical "tipping points" in the global climate system is Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)The AMOC is a vast network of currents in the Atlantic Ocean that circulates warm water northward and cold water southward. This system is vital for the distribution of nutrients that support ocean life and influences climate, making some parts of the world warmer than they otherwise would be.

Historical analyses of ice cores suggest that changes in the AMOC flow have been linked to abrupt climate changes in the distant past. There have been warning signs of a weakening of this circulation over the past century. A recent 2023 analysis by researchers at the University of Copenhagen concluded that there is 95% probability that the AMOC will collapse between 2025 and 2095, with the most likely date being the 2050s if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current rate. Although other researchers question the possibility of predicting such an event with such precision, the potential consequences of any shift in the AMOC are vast.

Impacts of AMOC change:

• Northern Europe could become colder and drier, with more intense storms, shorter growing seasons and summers more prone to drought.
• On northeast coast of America Ocean temperatures could continue to rise, negatively affecting fisheries, accelerating the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and leading to rising sea levels.
• Intertropical Convergence Zone, the tropical belt where weather systems from both hemispheres meet, could shift south, causing droughts in Africa and Central America, affecting tens of millions of people.

Moreover, these changes could occur much more suddenly than the gradual process of climate change to which we are accustomed.

The threat of major volcanic eruptions

Although volcanic eruptions are not directly linked to greenhouse gas emissions and are not a "tipping point" in the same climatic sense as the AMOC, they do represent sudden risk with widespread global impacts, which could dramatically change the climate and disrupt life on Earth.

Ice core analysis suggests that there is a one in six chance of a major volcanic eruption (magnitude 7)Such an event, comparable to the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815, could cool the climate, significantly affect food production, and disrupt aviation, shipping, and communications infrastructure for months or even years.

Volcanology experts Michael Cassidy and Lara Mani warn that the world is "woefully unprepared" They point out that far more resources are spent monitoring the smaller risk of asteroids than monitoring volcanoes. In 2025, volcano watchers are concerned about the situation in Iceland (where an eruption in 2010 disrupted transatlantic air travel for several days) and volcanoes near large population centers in Italy, Indonesia, and the Philippines. A major eruption would have a truly global impact.

These threats highlight the urgent need not only to review and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also to strengthen global preparedness for sudden and potentially catastrophic events that could destabilize our world. JRi