Sustainability is no longer a marginal environmental topic. By the mid-21st century, it is becoming the main framework for economic growth, investment and competitiveness. The question is therefore not, whether should be the economy sustainable, but What proportion of sustainable activities must make up the economy?, to make growth possible, stable and resilient to climate and systemic risks in the long term.

Based on EU strategies, IEA, IPCC and financial institutions' scenarios, four key parameters can be identified that define sustainable economic growth by 2050.

1. Share of the green economy in GDP

The green economy – i.e. the production of environmental goods and services – today represents approximately 2.5 % GDP. These are mainly the sectors of renewable energy sources, energy efficiency, waste management and environmental services.

However, by 2050 it is expected fundamental structural transformation. Implementation of the European Green Deal, the package Fit for 55 and principles of the circular economy has the potential to significantly increase the economic importance of green sectors. By 2030, the circular economy could add approximately 0.5 % GDP, while in the long term, low-carbon and environmentally compatible industries are expected to become an integral part of most economic activities.

International Energy Agency (IEA) scenarios suggest that by 2050, almost 90 % of electricity production to come from renewable sources, which indirectly means a significant increase in the share of the green economy in total economic output. There is no single official target in percentage of GDP, but the trend is clear: the green economy is becoming a marginal sector a new core of growth.

2. Share of investments in climate solutions (green CAPEX)

Transforming the economy requires unprecedented levels of investment. In the period 2011-2020, around 5.1 % GDP per year. However, to meet the target of reducing emissions by 55 % by 2030, investments need to be increased by a further 3.2 % GDP per year, which represents an overall level of around 8 % GDP per year.

The European Investment Bank estimates that the energy transition itself will require 2.5 – 3 % GDP per year until 2050. Most of these investments will go into:

• buildings, industry and transport (60 – 65 %),

• energy infrastructure and renewable sources (35 – 40 %).

IEA global scenarios assume that net energy investment will reach 100% by the early 2030s. triple, with the public sector playing a catalytic role and the majority of capital coming from private sources.

Special attention is also required Nature-based Solutions. According to UNEP, global investment in these solutions needs to be increased to approximately $536 billion per year by 2050, so that ecosystems can fulfill their stabilizing and adaptive function.

3. Decarbonization of the economy as a condition for growth

The European Union has a legally enshrined goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050, which means practically 100 % reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions. The intermediate stage is to reduce emissions by approximately 90 % by 2040.

According to the IEA and IPCC scenarios, this target is necessary to keep global warming close to 1.5°C. In such scenarios:

• coal consumption drops to almost zero,

• oil consumption decreases by approximately 75 %,

• natural gas consumption by more than 50 %.

At the same time, it is dramatically decreasing GDP emission intensity, which means that economic growth must be completely decoupled from emissions growth. By 2050, clean energy should account for approximately 50 % of total final energy consumption.

Decarbonization thus does not become a brake on growth, but a basic condition for its sustainability.

4. Share of economic activities in accordance with the EU taxonomy

The EU taxonomy defines which economic activities are environmentally sustainable and compatible with the goal of climate neutrality by 2050. It covers sectors responsible for approximately 93 % of EU emissions, including energy, industry, transport, buildings and agriculture.

Current data from the first years of reporting show that taxonomy-aligned company turnover is only at the level of a few percent so far. For example, financial institutions report on average approximately 2 – 3 % taxonomy-aligned turnover. However, this low proportion does not reflect the final goal, but the initial phase of the transformation.

The EU's long-term goal is to most economic activities have become compatible with the taxonomy, either directly (as sustainable activities) or indirectly (as transitional activities supporting decarbonization). By 2050, virtually the entire economy should be aligned with the planet's climate and environmental limits.

Sustainability as a new framework for growth

If economic growth is to be stable, competitive and socially sustainable by 2050, sustainability must form its dominant component. It is not a single sector or a separate policy, but a new economic model, in which:

• investments in climate and adaptation amount to several percent of GDP annually,

• emissions are falling to zero,

• green and taxonomy-compatible activities are penetrating all sectors,

• Natural capital is protected as economic infrastructure.

By 2050, sustainability will not become an „add-on“ to economic growth, but its basic supporting pillar. JRi