Welcome to the NOAA Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases group information website! The central site for global greenhouse gas monitoring and is in charge of operating the global air sampling network that continues to monitor the air we breathe.

November 15 424.07 ppm

Safe concentration: 350 ppm

ppm – the number of particles of carbon dioxide per million particles of air.

More on gml.noaa.gov

Welcome to the NOAA Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases group information website! The central site for global greenhouse gas monitoring and is in charge of operating the global air sampling network that continues to monitor the air we breathe.

November 13 424.04 ppm

Safe concentration: 350 ppm

ppm – the number of particles of carbon dioxide per million particles of air.

More on gml.noaa.gov

Preliminary estimates compiled as part of the Global Carbon Budget project indicate that the amount of carbon dioxide (CO ₂ ) released into the atmosphere by fossil fuels will increase by another 0.8 % in 2024, which would increase annual emissions to 37.4 billion metric tons of CO ₂ .

"The impacts of climate change are becoming more dramatic, but we still see no sign of fossil fuel burning peaking," said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter. who led the study. "Until we reach net zero CO emissions worldwide ₂ , global temperatures will continue to rise and cause increasingly serious consequences.” (More on research.noaa.gov)

Carbon dioxide removal is essential to achieving net zero emissions as any residual CO emissions need to be neutralized ₂ . The scientifically accepted definition of carbon dioxide removal requires that atmospheric CO be removed ₂ stored "permanently"; however, what is meant by durability remains unclear, and interpretations have varied from decades to millennia. Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we investigated here the effect of carbon dioxide removal with different storage lengths _CO2 . We found that storage time significantly affects whether net zero emissions achieve the desired temperature results. With typical 100-year storage, they lead to net zero CO emissions _{2 with residual emissions of 6 Gt CO 2} per year to an additional warming of 1.1 °C by 2,500 compared to permanent storage, putting internationally agreed temperature limits at risk. Our findings suggest that the storage period of CO ₂ less than 1000 years is insufficient to neutralize the remaining fossil CO emissions ₂ with net zero emissions. These results reinforce the principle that credible claims of neutralization by carbon dioxide removal within net zero require balancing emissions with removals of similar atmospheric residence time and storage, e.g. geological or biogenic. (Cyril Brunner , Zeke Hausfather & Reto Knutt, more at nature.com)

Welcome to the NOAA Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases group information website! The central site for global greenhouse gas monitoring and is in charge of operating the global air sampling network that continues to monitor the air we breathe.

November 11 424.02 ppm

Safe concentration: 350 ppm

ppm – the number of particles of carbon dioxide per million particles of air.

More on gml.noaa.gov

Quantifying fair national shares of the remaining global carbon budget has proven challenging. Here, we propose an indicator – additional carbon liability – that quantifies the responsibility of countries to mitigate and remove CO ₂ while achieving their own goals. Taking into account carbon debts since 1990 and future claims based on individual countries' emission trajectories, the indicator uses the same cumulative per capita emissions approach to allocate responsibility for closing the mitigation gap between countries with a positive total excess carbon claim. The carbon budget is exceeded by 576 gigatons of fossil CO ₂ when warming is limited to below 1.5 °C (probability 50 %). The additional carbon liability is highest in the United States and China, and highest per capita in the United Arab Emirates and Russia. Assumptions about the carbon debt significantly affect the results in most countries. The ability to pay for this responsibility is difficult for Iran, Kazakhstan and several BRICS+ members, unlike the G7 members. (Thomas Hahn, Johannes Morfeldt, Ingo Fetzer, more at nature.com)

Assessing compliance with the anthropogenic warming target of the Paris Agreement requires transparent, reliable and timely metrics. Linearity between increases in atmospheric CO ₂ and temperature offers a framework that appears to meet these criteria and produces estimates of anthropogenic warming that are at least 30 % more certain than alternative methods. Here, for the year 2023, we estimate that humans have caused a global increase of 1.49 ± 0.11 °C relative to the pre-1700 baseline. (Andrew Jarvis & Piers M. Forster, more at phys.org) 

The UN Climate Change Conference began in November. One contentious issue will be at the center of attention: negotiating new payments from industrialized countries to their less wealthy counterparts - particularly using profits from oil and gas companies.

The debate over the financing of these payments is, to put it mildly, heated. But now, the revelation of a study led by the Technical University of Munich (TUM) could change everything.

It turns out that the windfall gained by oil and gas companies during the 2022 energy crisis was enough to meet the existing obligations of industrialized countries for almost five years. The researchers' solution? Tax on these so-called windfalls. (Sanjana Gajbhiye, more at earth.com)

RECORD heat, extreme weather events, air pollution and the spread of infectious diseases: climate change poses an already huge but ever-growing threat to human health around the world, experts warn.

The latest round of UN climate talks begins next week in what is expected to be the hottest year on record - and in the shadow of climate skeptic Donald Trump's re-election as US president.

COP29 will take place in Azerbaijan as the world continues to release increasing amounts of planet-warming fossil fuels, even as many nations suffer from devastating floods, droughts, heatwaves and storms. (More on businesstimes.com.sg)

Just a few weeks ago, massive rainfall caused by storm "Boris" led to chaos and flooding in Central and Eastern Europe. Analysis by the Alfred Wegener Institute shows that in a world without current levels of global warming, Boris would deposit roughly nine percent less precipitation. Such conclusions can be drawn thanks to a new modeling approach called "storylines". How it can be used in near real time has just been presented in the journal Nature Communications Earth & Environment. The AWI team also released a freely available online tool that allows users to identify the fingerprints of climate change in current extreme weather events and create their own comparison graphics. (More on eurasiareview.com)

The world has just reached an alarming new milestone: average global temperatures in 2024 are o 1.55 °C higher as in the pre-industrial era. This figure, published this week by the European Climate Service Copernicus , represents the first ever crossing of the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement. This milestone is considered to be breaking point in the fight against climate change - this is a moment that can decide the future of our planet and which should act as to take stricter measures at the COP29 climate conference .

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What does the tipping point mean for global temperature?

"It is a tipping point for global temperature," the Copernicus climate service said in a press release published this week. If we exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial values, we will reach the highest limits that can become irreversible and threaten many aspects of our planet - from natural ecosystems to the economy and human health. It is this tipping point that is leading scientists, climate activists and politicians to increase the urgency in the fight against climate change.

The temperature threshold of 1.5 °C is not just a symbolic goal. This limit has been set by scientists as the threshold beyond which the likely catastrophic climate change increases sharply. Exceeding this threshold signals that current efforts to mitigate climate change are unnecessary and that the world must focus not only on reducing emissions, but also on urgent adaptation to climate change.

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Why is crossing the 1.5°C threshold a tipping point?

With an increased global temperature of more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, we are in danger of reaching the so-called climatic tipping points – irreversible changes in natural systems that can have catastrophic consequences. The most frequently discussed body fractures include:

• Decay of Arctic sea ice : Arctic sea ice extent lasts longer than warmer temperatures, exposing a dark ocean that absorbs more sunlight and warms even faster. This phenomenon causes accelerated melting of ice and contributes to the further increase of sea level ice.
• Melting of permafrost : In the northern regions of the planet, permafrost is breaking down - frozen soil that contains a huge amount of greenhouse gases, especially methane. By heating, these gases are released into the atmosphere, which further increases the temperature and increases global warming.
• Collapsing Amazon forest : The Amazon rainforest, which is one of the largest carbon reservoirs, may lose its ability to absorb CO₂ at higher rates and become a net producer of emissions. Destruction of the Amazon rainforest would reduce biodiversity, leading to the loss of habitat for many species.

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Threat of disaster and call for immediate action

If the current warming trend continues, it is very likely that this tipping point for global temperatures will trigger a chain reaction that will have global and long-lasting consequences. Scientists warn that without immediate and consistent action, what awaits us disaster in the form of increasingly extreme manifestations of weather, drought, flooding, the destruction of ecosystems and unpredictable impacts on human society.

This milestone is not just another record, but a warning of the real risks of the climate crisis. It is intended to serve as a challenge to world leaders to step up their roles in climate policy. At the next COP29 climate conference in Baku, one of the reduced agenda items will be new targets to reduce and introduce more effective adaptation measures.

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How can COP29 contribute to solving this crisis?

Exceeding the temperature threshold of 1.5 °C should motivate the country to take concrete measures and existing obligations at the COP29 conference. This conference represents an important opportunity to increase the financing of adaptation measures that regulate the most vulnerable countries that are preparing for the consequences of climate change.

At COP29, follow these simple steps:

1. Increase in target emissions : Countries must meet the following risks to reduce current warming trends. This means, for example, increasing the share of renewable energy sources and limiting fossil fuels.
2. Financing adaptation measures : Financing for developing countries is key to mitigating the impacts of climate change. COP29 should find commitments to provide financial and technical assistance to these countries.
3. Support for natural solutions : Preserving forests, wetlands and other natural ecosystems can help absorb carbon from the atmosphere and slow global warming. Nature is one of the best ways to protect the environment while protecting emissions.
4. Development of new technologies : Investing in technologies that enable capture and carbon, by helping to store emissions where they can be completely eliminated.

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Conclusion: Crossing the tipping point as an opportunity for change

Exceeding the 1.5°C limit is not a numerical milestone – it is only a warning signal and a demand for action. This cost tipping point, that we are approaching a limit beyond which the return to a stable climate may be more difficult and costly. The world is at a crossroads: either we choose to act and move on, or we face a future that may affect the future of the planet.

As stated by the Copernicus service, the crossing of this limit was intended to serve as an effective response to the increase in load and the adoption of effective measures. COP29 is a unique opportunity for world leaders to take decisions that can reverse the current trend and ensure a sustainable future for the next generation. Spring

In 2024, the average temperature on Earth is expected to exceed the historical limit of global warming by 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This symbolic milestone is justified by serious concerns, because due to the consequence of the emergence of serious problems, it is necessary to remember that society too. The topic of global warming is as relevant today as ever, and crossing the 1.5°C limit set by scientists and climatologists reminds us of the urgency of the fight against climate change. In this article, we look at why 2024 is so important, what are the causes and consequences of rising global temperatures, and what can be done to mitigate this crisis.

Why is the 1.5°C limit so important?

International climate agreements, in particular the Paris Agreement of 2015, have committed to keeping global warming below 2°C, setting as a target 1.5 °C . This goal was set on the basis of extensive scientific studies, which showed that an increase in temperature of more than 1.5 °C meant a significant worsening of extreme climatic phenomena, such as heat, droughts, floods or forest fires. Many ecosystems, such as coral reefs, would not be able to adapt to the rapid changes and the risk of their extinction would be high. Climatologists therefore warn that crossing this limit will bring not only ecological, but also economic and social consequences that will be felt by millions of people around the world.

Year 2024: Causes of record warming

This exceptionally high rise in temperature is due to several factors:

• El Niño phenomenon : This climatic phenomenon, which occurs in the Pacific Ocean, causes an increase in the temperature of the oceans and consequently the atmosphere. Combined with increasing greenhouse gas emissions, this phenomenon contributes significantly to the overall increase in global temperature.
• Growing emissions : World emissions of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases still increasing, mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and intensive agricultural production. These gases trap heat in the atmosphere, leading to a gradual increase in temperature.
• Urbanization and industrial development : Extensive industrial development in developing countries, urbanization and infrastructure construction further increase the amount of emissions and contribute to overall warming.

Consequences of global warming above 1.5 °C

Exceeding the 1.5°C limit has serious consequences on many levels:

• Worsening of extreme climatic phenomena : The heat will be even more intense, so longer and most common, and extraordinary new floods affecting the area, which are extensive damage to infrastructure and people's lives.
• Loss of biodiversity : For many species, especially those that are sensitive to temperature changes, crossing the 1.5°C limit means a serious threat. Animals and plants will be forced to migrate or adapt to new needs, but many of them cannot.
• Threat to food safety : Changes in weather and climate extremes will worsen harvests in agriculturally active regions. This can lead to food crises, increase food prices and worsen living conditions for the poorest.
• The rise of climate migrants : Several areas will be uninhabitable due to extreme weather and degraded living conditions, causing millions of people to migrate in search of better conditions.

What can we do to mitigate climate change?

Although 2024 will bring tough news on the state of the climate, there are various steps we can take to mitigate this crisis:

1. Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions : Promoting renewable energy sources such as solar and wind is key. Efforts to limit fossil fuels and use energy more efficiently can help slow global warming.
2. Afforestation and biodiversity protection : Reforestation and ecosystem protection contribute to achieving CO₂ in the atmosphere. Nature plays an important role in environmental regulation, and afforestation programs have not only ecological but also social benefits.
3. Support of sustainable agriculture : Limiting the excessive use of land and water, introducing agricultural technology and reducing emissions from agricultural production are important steps.
4. Awareness raising and education : In order for society to act, it is necessary to raise awareness about climate change and its consequences. Education in this area is an investment in the future that can help shape the next generation that will be able to face this challenge.
5. International cooperation : The climate crisis knows no borders and the fight against it requires cooperation at the global level. Solutions must include coordinated efforts, joint investment and support for less developed countries.

Conclusion

The year 2024 is an important year for our planet, which reminds us of the seriousness of the climate situation. Exceeding the limit of 1.5°C of global warming requires immediate and immediate measures to protect our environment. At this time, it is important to find forces and solutions that will not only mitigate climate change, but also protect our health, biodiversity and the future of future generations. Spring

Chronic respiratory diseases are one of the leading causes of death in Europe and it is estimated that more than a third of these deaths are caused by preventable environmental factors. Key interventions include reducing pollution, energy poverty and exposure to risk at work, according to a European Environment Agency (EEA) report published today. (More on eea.europa.eu)

A UN biodiversity meeting this month failed to reach an agreement on funding. The world is far from ready for the "calamity" caused by climate change and must urgently prepare for even worse in the future, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Thursday.

Global efforts to adapt to climate change—from building defensive sea walls to growing drought-resistant crops—have not kept pace as global warming accelerates the frequency and intensity of disasters. (Agence France-Presse, more at ndtv.com)

Northern permafrost regions, areas of permanently frozen ground, are undergoing rapid changes due to global warming. These changes pose a potential risk to the climate, (viac…)

Today, the European Commission is taking further steps to support Member States affected by unprecedented climate disasters. As announced by European Commission President von der Leyen during her visit to Poland on 19 September 2024, the Commission is proposing amendments to three EU regulations to ensure the rapid mobilization of EU funds to support disaster recovery. (More on ec.europa.eu)

Tackling methane – and fast – has been declared a critical priority by world leaders and fossil fuel managers, many of whom have signed an accelerating series of pledges from 2021 to bolster their green credentials. The new commitments are among the key outcomes of successive annual UN climate conferences, and major polluters insist they are making progress. (by Aaron Clark and Zachary R Mider, Bloomberg News, more at phys.org)

Climate change is no longer a distant threat that haunts textbooks or ecologists' lectures. It has become part of our everyday reality and many experts warn that if we do not act immediately, (viac…)