The European Union (EU) has committed to achieving, through the European Climate Law and the Green Deal, climate neutrality by 2050 and reduce net greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) by at least 55 % by by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. The agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sectors play a key role in this effort due to their dual function – carbon sequestration and GHG emissions at the same timeThe EcAMPA 4 report, part of the series “Economic Assessment of CAP Emission Mitigation Policy Options for EU Agriculture” (EcAMPA), assesses the potential contribution of AFOLU sectors to meeting these EU targets.

Methodology and modeling in EcAMPA 4 EcAMPA 4 expands on previous studies and focuses on carbon sequestration in forestry, adoption of advanced agricultural practices, and protection and restoration of organic soils. The analysis uses the CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact) model, an economic optimization model for the agricultural sector that covers 47 key agricultural products and global markets. The CAPRI model is adapted to calculate CAP emissions from agricultural sources and to assess the impacts of policies.

Key emission mitigation scenarios The EcAMPA 4 report examines several policy scenarios designed to increase CO2 sequestration and reduce non-CO2 emissions. These scenarios include:

• Increased afforestation (Affor): This scenario simulates the long-term impact of increased forest cover on carbon stocks, with 7.5 million hectares (Mha) of forested area added by 2050. Although it has only a negligible impact on agricultural CAP emissions, it contributes significantly to increasing forest carbon stocks.
• Sustainable forest management (FM): It aims to reduce timber harvesting by 10 % to increase carbon sequestration in European forests. This leads to an additional sequestration of 63 Mt CO2-eq.
• Organic Soil Protection (HisX): This scenario involves the fallowing or restoration of histosols (peatlands) used for crop production and pasture. It represents a significant potential to reduce CAP emissions in agriculture (by 4.2 % compared to the reference scenario) and CO2 emissions in the LULUCF sector (by 65 Mt CO2). Restoration costs, such as re-irrigation, are included (approximately €216/ha per year).
• Carbon pricing (CP): Introduction of carbon taxes on CO2 emissions and carbon subsidies for CO2 sequestration in AFOLU sectors. The carbon price is estimated to reach €100 per tonne of CO2 equivalent by 2050. This scenario leads to a significant reduction in emissions in agriculture (by 29 %).
• Combined set of strategies (Combi): It combines elements of the FM, HisX and CP scenarios, with a dominant role for carbon pricing. This scenario shows the greatest potential for emission reductions, with achieving negative net CAP emissions in AFOLU sectors by 2050.

Technological options for mitigating emissions In addition to changes in land management, they also play a key role technological and managerial measuresThose with the greatest potential include:

• Fallowing of histosols: The most significant contribution (91-95 Mt CO2-eq.).
• Feed supplements: Such as 3-Nitrooxypropanol (3NOP), nitrates and flaxseed, which reduce CH4 emissions from digestion.
• Anaerobic digestion: Effective in reducing CH4 and N2O emissions from manure.
• Nitrification inhibitors: They reduce N2O emissions from synthetic fertilizers.
• Precision agriculture: It optimizes the application of inputs, thereby contributing to the reduction of N2O emissions.

Impacts on production, land and market While the Affor and HisX scenarios only have marginal impact on the overall food supply in the EU, mainly by changing land allocation, the carbon pricing (CP) scenario significantly affects production. The most affected are animal production, especially beef, sheep and goat meat (decrease by up to 8 %), as well as oilseed production. In response, animal product prices are rising, leading to consumer shift towards poultry, pork and plant-based proteins.

Emission Leakage The introduction of carbon pricing may cause emission leakage, meaning that the reduction in emissions in the EU is partly offset by their increase in non-EU countries. In the CP and Combi scenarios, this represents 7 % and 4 % of the total reduction in emissions in the EU, respectively. This is due to the decline in the competitiveness of domestic producers and the increase in imports of cheaper alternatives.

A message confirms that AFOLU sectors can make a significant contribution to the EU's climate neutrality objectives. Combining existing technologies, better forest management and targeted protection of organic soils can lead to substantial reductions in carbon footprints and increased carbon sequestration. Although carbon pricing is an effective tool, it poses challenges related to emissions leakage and the impact on agricultural production and income. Future policies should consider reinvesting carbon pricing revenues to support farmers in adopting emission-mitigating technologies. Spring

Glossary of key terms

• 3NOP (3-Nitrooxypropanol): Feed supplement for ruminants that inhibits methanogenesis and reduces methane (CH4) emissions.
• AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use): Sectors including agriculture, forestry and other land use, which are major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions and removals.
• Anaerobic digestion: On-farm technology that decomposes organic matter without oxygen, reducing CH4 and N2O emissions from manure.
• CAP (Common Agricultural Policy): The European Union's Common Agricultural Policy, which influences agricultural practices and land use.
• CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis): An economic optimization model used for a comprehensive analysis of the EU agricultural sector, including greenhouse gas emissions.
• CBM (Carbon Budget Model): A carbon budget model used to estimate carbon stocks and flows, especially in forest ecosystems.
• CH4 (Methane): A potent greenhouse gas that is released mainly from animal production (e.g. enteric fermentation) and organic soils.
• Climate neutrality: The goal is to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by offsetting remaining emissions through carbon removal.
• CO2 (Carbon dioxide): The main greenhouse gas released, for example, from the decomposition of organic soils and changes in land use.
• CO2-eq. (Carbon dioxide equivalents): A unit of measurement used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases based on their global warming potential.
• Combi (Combined set of strategies): A scenario in the study that combines various mitigation strategies, including maximum application of histosol protection and voluntary application of technological options.
• CP (Carbon Pricing): A scenario in the study that introduces carbon pricing to incentivize emissions reductions.
• EcAMPA: Abbreviation for "Economic assessment of GHG mitigation policy options for EU agriculture", a series of studies.
• European Climate Law: EU legislation that sets legally binding targets for climate neutrality and greenhouse gas emission reduction.
• European Green Deal: A comprehensive EU strategy to transform the EU into a modern, resource-efficient and competitive economy.
• Fallowing histosols: Abandoning the agricultural use of organic soils (peats) and restoring them to prevent greenhouse gas emissions from their decomposition.
• FM (Forest Management): A scenario focused on sustainable forest management to increase carbon absorption.
• GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies): A model/database used to estimate the potentials and costs of reducing greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions.
• GHG (Greenhouse Gas): A gas in the atmosphere that absorbs and emits radiant energy, causing the greenhouse effect (e.g. CO2, CH4, N2O).
• Histosols (Organic soils): A type of soil with a high organic matter content, often of peat origin. Their drainage leads to significant greenhouse gas emissions.
• HisX (Organic Soil Protection): A scenario in the study that focuses on protecting and restoring histosols by leaving them fallow.
• JRC (Joint Research Centre): The European Commission's Joint Research Centre, which provides scientific evidence for EU policies.
• LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry): A category covering greenhouse gas emissions and removals related to land-use change and forestry.
• N2O (Nitrous oxide): A potent greenhouse gas that is released mainly from agriculture (e.g. fertilization).
• Nitrification inhibitors (NI): Chemical compounds that slow down the nitrification process in soil, thereby reducing nitrogen losses and N2O emissions.
• NUTS (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics): A standard hierarchical classification of geographical units used for statistical purposes in the EU.
• Precision agriculture: Agricultural techniques that use technology to optimize yields and reduce inputs, often with a positive impact on emissions (e.g. better timing of fertilization).
• REWETTING: The process of restoring the original water regime in drained peatlands with the aim of stopping peat decomposition and greenhouse gas emissions.
• ROW (Rest of the World): Rest of the world, a term used to refer to countries outside the European Union.
• UAA (Utilized Agricultural Area): Utilized agricultural area.
• UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change): The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, an international treaty aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations.
• Winter cover crops: Crops grown outside the main growing season to improve soil health, prevent erosion, and sequester carbon.