The European Commission recently proposed an ambitious climate target – to reduce the EU’s net greenhouse gas emissions by 90 % by 2040 compared to 1990. Such a step would bring us close to complete decarbonisation (climate neutrality) a decade earlier than originally planned by the Paris Agreement. But what would this really mean for people's lives? How will it affect our wallets, work, health or daily habits? The following is an overview of the main impacts and measures in five areas.

Economic impacts

From an economic perspective, large-scale decarbonization would bring relatively mixed impacts, but in the long term, it would rather bring benefits. On the one hand, fossil fuel prices are expected to rise: if the EU significantly limits the burning of coal, oil and gas, their supplies can hardly become cheaper (thanks to lower demand, prices could fluctuate, but they are balanced by a carbon tax or emissions trading). On the other hand, the enormous increase in renewable sources – wind and solar power plants – is already bringing significant savings today. For example, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that in 2021–2023, thanks to new wind and solar power plants, Europeans will save approximately 100 billion euros on electricity costs. In the absence of these investments, prices on the EU stock exchange would be up to ~8 % higher in 2022. In other words, the growth of RES reduces the total energy expenditure of both households and businesses. Greenpeace even warns that the transition to renewables “will ultimately reduce people's energy bills” while improving energy security across Europe. The European Commission similarly stresses that a clear 90 % target gives investors certainty and strengthens the EU's industrial leadership in new technologies.

For households, this also means changes in energy ownership and consumption. Higher taxes or carbon fees on petrol and natural gas may slightly increase fuel and energy prices temporarily, but part of the costs are offset by the increasing competitiveness of renewable energy. On the other hand, domestic budgets will have to invest in energy savings: for example, insulating homes, modernising heating systems or installing solar panels. Overall, however, the long-term forecast shows lower operating costs: with a higher share of renewable energy and more efficient technologies, it will be cheaper (or at least more stable) to heat and drive. Nevertheless, the EU is counting on clear support for vulnerable groups (see below – social challenges) so that increased costs do not affect the poorest.

Impact on daily life

The 90 % target will require our daily behavior to adapt to the new energy mix. This will be felt most significantly in transportation and housing.

• Transportation: The EU is already banning the sale of new cars with combustion engines from 2035. This means that by 2040, virtually all cars and light commercial vehicles on the road will be electric (battery or hydrogen powered). Electric cars have lower running costs than traditional cars – electricity often costs less than petrol in the EU and electronics require less maintenance. The EU recognises that “the current total cost of ownership of a battery electric car is the same as or lower than a gasoline one”, while assuming a further reduction in the purchase price of new EVs thanks to greater competition and development. Citizens can therefore expect a gradual shift to charging stations instead of gas stations, a boom in shared mobility services or public transport, and less noise and emissions directly on the streets. Heavy trucks, buses and trains will also be either electrified (batteries, trolleybuses, electric locomotives), or in more severe cases powered by green hydrogen or synthetic biofuels.
• Housing and heating: Households will also feel the shift away from fossil gas. Many single-family homes and apartments will switch to heat pumps, which use renewable energy from the surrounding air, ground or water. Heat pumps are significantly more efficient than old gas or electric heaters, and studies show that their massive expansion has major benefits: a model from ELPA and EHPA estimates that installation of another 60 million heat pumps by 2030 would reduce the EU's demand for natural gas in buildings by up to 40 % and save €60 billion on gas imports. People would pay up to 20 % less on average for heating than if nothing had changed. In addition, the energy performance of homes would be significantly improved: stricter insulation standards, new windows, smart thermostats, LED lighting and so on - all with the aim of reducing energy consumption.
• Appliances and daily habits: Household equipment will also gradually change. All new appliances (refrigerators, washing machines, lights, etc.) must now meet strict energy standards and be labeled with a new energy class (A to G). These state settings reduce consumption. People will naturally replace old appliances with more energy-efficient ones more often (e.g. induction hobs instead of gas, energy-saving lighting, modern electronic controls). The use of digital solutions will also increase significantly - a greater emphasis on the Internet of Things that optimize consumption (e.g. heating, app-controlled climate). Overall, it can be expected that ordinary households will pay more attention to ecological alternatives (e.g. biofuels, local products, recycled materials) in their everyday purchases, which will support the emergence of new markets and services.
• Mobility: In addition to cars, this also applies to public and individual transport. Cities will support cycling, walking and effective distance learning to reduce the need for cars. Investments will be directed to electric buses, trolleybuses and safe cycle paths. Passengers can prepare for smarter trip planning (e.g. ride-sharing apps) and slightly slower car traffic between cities, as European carbon policy limits may slightly increase the price of air and road transport (which, in turn, opens up space for cheaper train transport).

In essence, everyday life will gradually be brought into sync with the new, more carbon-neutral economy. Some changes will be obvious (like an electric car in the garage or new solar panels on the roof), others more hidden (like a more efficient boiler or regulated energy prices). The Commission stresses that the aim is “make it easier for people to overcome this transformation”, for example by supporting investment in households.

Jobs and industrial transformation

The ambitious Green Deal will fundamentally affect industry and the job market. Hard coal, oil and gas will lose their importance as raw materials, which means a decline in sectors such as mining (coal), refineries or the tradition of diesel engine production. On the contrary, the demand for new technologies and services will increase, which will create job opportunities:

• Renewable energy and construction: Jobs are widely expected to increase in sectors related to the construction and installation of green technologies. For example: construction and energy efficiency will be among the largest employers – building insulation, photovoltaic installation, wind farm construction, and grid modernization are significant market drivers. Eurofound estimates that the “Fit for 55” package alone could create 100,000 jobs in the EU by 2030. about 204,000 new jobs compared to normal growth. These positions are often associated with manual or semi-skilled work that does not require a college degree (especially in construction, maintenance, and the like).
• Automotive and transportation: The transition to electric vehicles will change the automotive industry – manufacturers and subcontractors will have to retrain employees on new technologies (batteries, control systems, electronics). Some traditional assembly lines will be reoriented to produce EVs. According to a study by Transport & Environment, the shift to electrified vehicles alone could create hundreds of thousands of new jobs across the EU by 2030 – this includes not only car production, but also batteries, charging infrastructure and battery recycling. (On the other hand, it should be noted that EV production requires fewer parts, so some positions at suppliers will shrink; however, the latest estimates speak more of a balance and overall employment growth.)
• Energy sector and heavy industry: Industries such as energy and heavy industry will have to transform. Coal-fired power plants will gradually disappear, which will reduce jobs in mines and in power plant maintenance. On the other hand, the growing production of green energy (solar, wind, biogas plants) requires engineers, technicians, installation and maintenance workers. Carbon-forward industries such as steel mills and cement plants will look for new processes - for example, electric or hydrogen furnaces and carbon capture. This will create jobs for developers, CCUS (carbon capture) technicians and innovators in the chemical industry. Pipelines and networks will carry a different content - biomethane and hydrogen are expected to expand. The Gas Infrastructure Association GIE warns that the future will require "the transport of renewable and low-carbon energy" in systems (biomethane and green hydrogen will flow through the pipes instead of natural gas). This means new projects in the installation and operation of infrastructure, as well as the reconversion of existing networks.
• Employment – summary: Overall, most studies estimate rather a slight increase employment in the economy. Fit for 55 should bring about according to EU models +0.3 % to +0.5 % net job growth, which means tens of thousands of new jobs (around 200–300 thousand by 2030) above and beyond normal growth. Positive effects are expected especially in countries with well-developed green capacities (e.g. Spain, Italy) and in regions with high demand for construction and services. On the other hand, regions heavily dependent on coal or oil mining (e.g. some parts of Poland, Romania) will need targeted investments and retraining programs (so-called just transition). The EU is therefore preparing special Just Transition Funds, aimed precisely at supporting employees and regions that are transitioning from carbon to new technologies.

Health and environmental benefits

A strong reduction in emissions will bring a number of positive effects for the environment and public health:

• Cleaner air: The main benefit will be a significant improvement in air quality. Even with the current “Fit for 55” targets, the number of deaths related to PM₂.₅ pollution is expected to be reduced by more than half by 2030 (or by ~55 % compared to 2005). Current EU data shows that in 2022 around 239,000 people in the EU still died from PM₂.₅ fine particles – if the rate of reduction is maintained, the 55 % target would be exceeded and by 2030 these deaths would have fallen by up to two thirds. With a 90 % reduction in emissions by 2040, the total amount of pollutants (PM2-5, NOₓ, ozone) will be significantly lower. Transport and home heating account for a significant part, so their expected reduction in favor of clean alternatives will directly save lives: fewer patients with asthma, cardiovascular problems or other ailments. The World Health Organization emphasizes that air pollution is one of the greatest environmental risks to health. The EIA even calculates that a global transition to clean energy could prevent up to 40 % deaths from respiratory diseases by 2035 - Europe would benefit similarly given stricter limits and measures. Fewer emissions also mean less acid rain, better water and soil quality, and healthier ecosystems overall.
• Climate and environment: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will directly limit climate change, which will also bring a better quality of life. A slower increase in average temperature will mean fewer extreme heat waves, severe storms and droughts – thus less economic damage and more direct relief for vulnerable groups (children, the elderly). More stable weather will protect crops, forests and aquatic ecosystems in the long term. In cities, this will also be seen in less noise smog and more “green” zones – with a shift away from fossil fuels, we will meet the EU’s “Green Zone” goal, which includes planting trees in cities and cleaner regions. Citizens will experience a more attractive landscape (cleaner rivers, more greenery) and reduced pollution, which contributes to a higher quality of life and recreation (e.g. swimming in rivers, tourism in mountains without smog).

Societal challenges and justice

The transition to a low-carbon economy will bring challenges, especially in terms of spreading the burden fairly across different segments of the population. Not everyone can afford a new car or a house renovation – and not all EU countries are equally prepared for the transformation.

The European Commission is aware that carbon taxes or new energy pricing can increase domestic budget bills if they are not offset. That is why the Social Climate Fund in the amount of approximately 86.7 billion euros. The fund aims to help the most vulnerable households and small businesses bridge the period of rising prices (e.g. fossil fuels) and finance projects that will reduce their long-term costs. EU countries are to develop plans for how they will use this fund. According to Politico, the fund will support projects such as: subsidies for renewable sources in households (e.g. solar panels), comprehensive energy renovations of buildings (insulation, replacement of windows), purchase of heat pumps, electric or low-emission vehicles for low-income families, and the like.

Vulnerable groups will also be able to receive additional assistance – for example, direct subsidies for energy, rental vouchers (so they can keep their homes heated), preferential loans for insulation, training in new crafts or reassignment to new job sectors. The principle is not to make the weakest disadvantaged situation only because of green policies. The Jacques Delors Institute warns in a study that without such measures, the carbon price in buildings and transport would rather deepen the current energy poverty – that is, families would have to reduce energy consumption to a level that threatens their health and standard of living. The very definition of “energy poverty” says that this is a situation where a household cannot afford to heat their house sufficiently or pay energy costs without endangering their health. The EU will therefore introduce measures to prevent such situations (e.g. special tariffs for low-income households or programs to reduce consumption without reducing comfort).

Last but not least, societal attitudes also play a role. The public will be explained that short-term constraints (e.g. occasional higher petrol prices or the need to replace an old boiler) are balanced by long-term global benefits – cleaner air, a more stable climate and better quality job opportunities in the future. It will take a lot of communication and political will to ensure that the reform is carried out “fairly”. Price benefit systems, comparative consumer tests, support measures or grants will also enable low-income groups to participate in the transformation – for example, replacing an old car or boiler will be more accessible to them. However, the fact is that this is a huge change and will require solidarity. The European Commission therefore stresses that without the support of such groups, the 90 % target would not be politically or socially sustainable.

Summary: 90 % emissions reduction by 2040 is both a challenge and an opportunity for EU citizens. In practice, this means more green energy, less fossil fuels, more expensive petrol and subsidised trams; older houses will be insulated, old cars will be replaced by electric cars; new job opportunities will be created in wind farms, solar panel installations, heat pump companies and carbon capture. The result should be an economy with more stable energy prices, jobs better adapted to the future and, above all, a cleaner environment. The key will be fair support for those who might have the hardest time during the transition – that is why the EU is preparing funds and aid programmes precisely for this purpose. For the average person, this will mean more electric cars and chargers, heat pumps in boiler rooms, better homes with lower bills and, finally, cleaner streets and air – all with the aim of ensuring a healthier and more sustainable future for us all. Spring

Sources: The basis for this analysis is based on official EU proposals and expert studies (eg IEA, EU institutions, environmental organisations). Each claim is supported by citations from reliable sources in the relevant text.