Nature is not a luxury, but our most basic form of critical infrastructure. It is the cornerstone that keeps food on our tables, enables economies to function, and holds society together. But we are currently managing our planet with such with a level of negligence unimaginable in any other economic sector. The loss of global biodiversity and the degradation of ecosystems already directly threaten the resilience, security and prosperity of our entire society.

Nature's ledger and dangerous tipping points

Imagine nature as a vast, interconnected ledger—a financial balance sheet containing all life, where each ecosystem represents a critical account that generates dividends in the form of clean air, fertile soil, medicines, and food security. Today, however, many of these accounts are overdrawn, as our withdrawals (deforestation, pollution, overfishing) far exceed our deposits.

Humanity is rapidly crossing so-called planetary boundaries, pushing the biosphere towards irreversible tipping points. The most prominent threats include:

• Deforestation: Tropical forests, home to more than 50 trillion terrestrial species, are being cleared at an alarming rate. In 2024 alone, the world lost 26.8 million hectares of natural forest, directly producing around 10 gigatonnes of carbon emissions. The Amazon rainforest, resilient for more than 60 million years, is approaching a tipping point, with up to 47 trillion hectares of its area likely to reach a critical threshold by 2050, potentially triggering a chain reaction that could turn it into a desert.
• Pollinator collapse: Pollinators, especially bees, are the basis for about three-quarters of global crop production, worth more than $250 billion a year. Their decline due to habitat loss and pesticide use poses a huge threat to food security and can necessitate costly manual pollination.
• Disruption of marine ecosystems: Coral reefs, which support 25 trillion tons of marine life, could decline by as much as 90 trillion tons by 2050 due to warming and ocean acidification. Combined with pollution and overfishing, this threatens to collapse entire fish populations that local communities and the global market depend on.

Once these thresholds are exceeded, ecosystem recovery may not be possible. The risk is no longer just volatility, but complete irreversibility.

Food safety on thin ice

Nature degradation has an immediate impact on our food systems. Agriculture requires stable weather, healthy soil, and sufficient water – planetary boundaries that we have already breached. Soil quality and health are declining rapidly worldwide; in the US Corn Belt, for example, soil degradation is leading to lower yields and annual losses of $2.8 billion.

These chronic risks are combined with extreme weather events. The result is lower yields, empty store shelves and soaring food prices. In the UK alone, food price inflation soared to almost 20% in 2023, contributing to a record 9.3 million people facing serious economic hardship. Experts also warn that civil unrest in the UK triggered by a food system crisis is "at least possible" in the next decade.„.

The system is also extremely vulnerable because of its concentration. More than 80% of the world's wheat is produced in just ten countries, and global trade is controlled by a handful of companies. Any local ecological or climate shock therefore has a huge global impact.

Zoonotic diseases and the threat of further pandemics

Destruction of nature and loss of biodiversity act as a catalyst for the spread of new infectious diseases. Up to 70% of emerging diseases (such as Ebola, Zika and COVID-19) originate from microbes transmitted from animals to humans. Paradoxically, by destroying nature, we are actually increasing the incidence of zoonotic diseases. Healthy and diverse nature acts as a „dilution effect“ that slows the spread of pathogens. Conversely, animal species that thrive in environments disturbed by human activity (such as rats and bats) are the most common vectors of disease.

Land-use change and deforestation have caused more than 30 trillion new diseases since 1960, as deforestation for agriculture and logging brings people into ever closer contact with wildlife. There are an estimated 1.7 million viruses, hundreds of thousands of which have the ability to infect humans. While the COVID-19 pandemic has cost the global economy between $17 trillion and $35 trillion, preventive measures based on nature conservation and curbing the wildlife trade would cost only a fraction of that amount – around $22 billion to $31.2 billion.

Natural risk is a financial risk

Nature is the foundation of 100 % investment portfolios. Companies around the world are already feeling the pinch. For example, Associated British Foods (ABF) had to write down £35 million in 2023 due to massive flooding in Mozambique, while simultaneously facing a £27 % drop in sugar production in the UK due to bad weather. Similarly, Olam Group saw a profit decline of over £55 %, largely due to anomalies in almond yields in Australia, a direct result of physical natural hazards.

Biodiversity loss carries macroeconomic threats comparable to the 2008 global financial crisis. If systems break down, there is no technological replacement on a sufficient scale to replace them.

Time for a fundamental change in thinking

Our current economic and financial models are largely blind to this reality, failing to properly quantify the complex and nonlinear risks of ecosystems. It is imperative that governments and institutions embrace the concept of „Planetary Solvency“ and begin to assess risks together – not just through climate models, but through integrated climate-nature scenarios.

The basis of our prosperity must no longer be blind resource extraction, but the search for balance with nature. The protection and restoration of ecosystems must become an absolute priority of national security and economic strategy. Ignoring this fact will lead to nothing other than the inevitable collapse of civilization. As the report emphasizes, „the only risk is inaction.“ Nature is already giving us a bill, and we must start paying it before it is too late. JRi&CO2AI

Source: Entering the wild unknown nature.