The European Union is entering a crucial phase of its decarbonisation strategy and energy transition in 2026. The Union faces a huge challenge: to maintain its leadership in the fight against climate change while protect industrial competitiveness and prevent extreme increases in energy prices at a time of geopolitical tension. At the heart of these changes is a comprehensive reform of the Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), extending carbon pricing to new sectors and unlocking massive investment in clean technologies.

The need for unprecedented investment and support for clean energy

Investments on a historic scale are needed for Europe to achieve its energy transition goals and secure affordable and clean energy. The European Commission estimates that between 2026 and 2030, investments in the energy sector need to reach around €660 billion per year, rising to €695 billion per year between 2031 and 2040.. This is a massive increase compared to an average of €240 billion per year between 2011 and 2021.

As EU and Member State public finances are not sufficient for such a volume, public resources must serve primarily as a strategic lever to mobilise private capital. For this reason, the Commission adopted on 10 March 2026 a Clean Energy Investment Strategy, which The European Investment Bank (EIB) plans to provide more than €75 billion over the next three years. This support will focus on a strategic fund for infrastructure investments for network operators, supporting innovative technologies such as long-term energy storage, floating wind and solar power plants, and addressing challenges in financing small modular reactors (SMRs).

At the same time, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a new fund called the "ETS Investment Booster" of €30 billion, which will be financed directly from the proceeds from the sale of emission allowances. This fund is to operate on a first-come, first-served basis and will ensure access to clean technology financing also for lower-income Member States, thereby reducing regional disparities in Europe.

Carbon market reform and energy price stabilization

The EU's climate ambitions have run into the reality of rising global energy prices, exacerbated by tensions and conflicts in the Middle East. The ETS system will therefore be adjusted to minimise unpredictable fluctuations and protect European industry. The planned changes will affect the so-called Market Stability Reserve (MSR), which regulates the supply of emission allowances on the market, and are also expected to adjust the reference values for the free allocation of allowances to industry.

The European Union even is considering introducing a "moderate" price cap for the EU ETS, which should help prevent extreme price shocks and ensure stable conditions for long-term investments. The Commission also points out that Member States can provide affected energy-intensive sectors with offset up to 80% of indirect carbon costs through the State aid framework.

Maritime transport under close scrutiny: Full compliance and new greenhouse gases

For maritime transport operators and carriers, 2026 marks a complete breakthrough. While in 2024 and 2025 the start-up system covered only 40 % and 70 % emissions respectively, from 1 January 2026, 100 % of verified CO₂ emissions from maritime voyages connected to EU and EEA ports will be charged to the EU ETS. For voyages that start or end outside the EU, the fees will apply to 50 % emissions.

But what is more important, from 2026, the EU ETS in shipping will be extended to other highly effective greenhouse gases: methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). Methane has a global warming potential 28 times higher than CO₂ and nitrous oxide is up to 228 times more potent. This measure will significantly increase the cost of operating vessels powered by liquefied natural gas (LNG) due to methane leaks, but will also affect operators using traditional heavy fuel oils. It is estimated that the operating costs of an average bulk vessel on EU routes will increase by €1.3 million per year, while charges per tonne of CO₂ could range between €60 and €150 in 2026.

End of free allowances in aviation

The year 2026 is also bringing a revolution to aviation. Airlines flying within Europe must face the fact that free emission allowances completely abolish. While in the past free allowances were seen as a buffer that protected European airlines from sudden cost increases, carbon is now becoming a direct and real-time billable operating cost.

At current market prices, airlines will pay between €70 and €100 per tonne of CO₂, which for a medium-sized carrier means a real annual cost of between €70 and €100 million. These changes will be directly reflected in aircraft leasing pricing. Older and less efficient aircraft are losing their appeal in the market, because their higher fuel consumption generates massive additional costs for carbon allowances. Airlines also have to deal with the bureaucratic and financial optimization of two parallel mechanisms – the European EU ETS system for domestic flights and the global CORSIA system for international flights.

Implementation in Slovakia: What awaits the national economy?

Global and European changes do not remain only in Brussels, but also directly affect the national level. The National Council of the Slovak Republic (NR SR) approved amendments to the laws on trading in emission quotas and on the Environmental Fund in an abbreviated legislative procedure., to align domestic legislation with new European rules applicable from 2026.

In accordance with European standards, emissions from maritime transport, including the aforementioned methane and nitrous oxide, are being included in the system for the first time in Slovakia. However, from the perspective of ordinary citizens and smaller companies, the introduction of the so-called ETS 2 system will be much more important. From 2027, a new separate emissions trading system will be created in Slovakia, covering the buildings, road transport and small industry sectors.. This scheme will be targeted primarily at distributors supplying fuels to these sectors, with the aim of achieving an overall reduction in national emissions of 42 % by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. It is also expected that consideration will be given to including municipal waste incinerators (with a capacity above 20 megawatts) in the scheme from 2028.

However, the revenues that the state will receive from emissions auctions will not remain idle. The legislation regulates the method of their distribution and use through the Environmental and Modernization Fund. This money will be used to finance innovations and reduce energy consumption for Slovak companies. Support will be provided to green projects in industry, construction of facilities for the production and storage of energy from renewable sources, and projects to increase the energy efficiency of buildings..

The changes that 2026 brings to climate protection mechanisms fundamentally redraw the economic map of Europe. The end of the era of „free pollution“ for airlines and the full burden on maritime transport show that carbon pricing is inexorable. On the other hand, however, European leaders are aware of the real risks of losing competitiveness, as evidenced by the establishment of a 30 billion fund, the dampening of price fluctuations and the willingness to reform the system from within. The decisive factor now will be how effectively Member States, including Slovakia, can convert these revenues and billions in investment into building a modern, green and competitive industry. JRi&CO2AI