The future of livestock farming in the EU: How to certify methane emission reductions?

Reducing methane emissions is becoming a key pillar of the European Union's climate policy. Methane is an extremely potent greenhouse gas with a warming potential of more than 80 times higher than carbon dioxide. Since breeding With livestock responsible for more than half of anthropogenic methane emissions in the EU, the sector is facing increasing pressure to implement effective mitigation measures.

New framework: What will the CRCF bring?

The European Union has introduced a regulation on a certification framework for carbon removal and carbon agriculture (CRCF). It is the first voluntary EU-wide scheme to incentivise investment in climate-positive practices through robust and science-based certification. While currently focused mainly on forestry and soil, the European Commission will assess by 2026 whether and under what conditions to include it. mitigation of methane from livestock.

Technologies with the greatest potential

Analyses suggest that the most appropriate practices for the first wave of certification are those that are technologically advanced, measurable, and verifiable. These include:

  • Feed additives: Substances such as 3-NOP (Bovaer) demonstrably reduce emissions from enteric fermentation by approximately 30 %.
  • Manure management: Technologies like anaerobic digestion (biogas stations) and manure acidification (pH adjustment) are already market-ready and can significantly reduce emissions during excrement storage.

However, these measures are costly. For example, the cost of 3-NOP is estimated at €80-120 per tonne of CO2e saved, meaning that farmers will need strong incentives to voluntarily implement them.

Obstacles in herd management

In contrast to technological solutions, the procedures herd management (e.g. lowering the age at first calving, genetic selection or increasing fertility) appear to be problematic for CRCF. The main risk is non-additionality – many of these changes are economically beneficial for farmers because they increase productivity, and they would probably implement them even without subsidies. There are also serious concerns about animal welfare, as the pursuit of maximum efficiency can lead to unwanted intensification of farming.

Monitoring is also complex. While for feed additives it is sufficient to track sales and headcount data, herd management requires complex modeling of the entire farming system, which does not correspond to the planned simpler architecture of the CRCF based on standardized baselines.

Call for national inventories

For certification to be meaningful, it must be linked to national greenhouse gas inventories (NIRs). However, currently most EU member states (up to 15) do not reflect any of the key mitigation technologies in their reports. The exception is Denmark, for example, which is investing heavily in research and data to integrate these practices into its systems.

Limits of technological solutions

Although technologies can reduce the emission intensity (the amount of methane per litre of milk), they may not lead to a reduction in the sector’s overall emissions. Between 2014 and 2023, the number of cattle in the EU fell by 6.1 %, but thanks to higher productivity, emissions fell by only 3.5 %. This phenomenon, known as rebound effect, suggests that efficiency alone is not enough.

Sources indicate that to achieve climate goals by 2045, it will be necessary to combine technological measures with structural changes, such as changes in diet and reduction of livestock numbers, which are measures that are beyond the scope of the CRCF certification framework. The CRCF should therefore only be part of a wider package of instruments, including reform of the Common Agricultural Policy and pricing mechanisms for emissions. JRi&CO2AI 

 

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