Achieving net zero goals is no longer just a matter of drastically reducing emissions. The scientific consensus is now clear: without active carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, it is impossible to meet goals of the Paris Agreement. If we think of the climate crisis as an overflowing bathtub, reducing emissions means turning off the tap, but CDR technologies represent a drain that must drain accumulated water, to bring the system back into balance. This article analyzes the current state, emerging technologies, and key factors that will determine whether the sector can grow to the necessary levels in the coming decades.

The gap between ambition and reality

CDR is now the essential „finishing touch“ of the global climate strategy. Estimates suggest that by 2050 we will need to remove approximately 7 to 9 billion tons of CO₂. However, the current reality is in stark contrast to these needs. While conventional methods such as afforestation already remove around 2 billion tons per year, new industrial CDR technologies are still in their infancy. In 2023, the global deployment of these new technologies (excluding forests) was just over 1.3 million tons, which is almost microscopic compared to annual emissions of 40 billion tonnes. This colossal gap between targets and the current state is driving innovation across the spectrum of solutions.

Portfolio of technology solutions

There is no „silver bullet.“ Success will depend on a portfolio of approaches that combine natural processes with high-tech engineering.

1. Biochar: A „Sleeping Giant“ Ready for Deployment Biochar currently dominates the durable carbon removal market, delivering approximately 90 % of all verified tons. It is a stable form of carbon produced by the pyrolysis of biomass (e.g. agricultural waste) that can lock in CO₂ for millennia. At a cost of between $150 and $250 per ton, it is one of the most affordable technologies. The potential of biochar is enormous; using just a fraction of the global agricultural waste could remove billions of tons of CO₂ per year. An example of successful scaling is Brazil, which, thanks to its agricultural base, can supply tens of millions of tons of removals per year.

2. DACCS: Direct Air Capture DACCS (Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage) technology uses machines to chemically filter CO₂ directly from ambient air. Although it is seen as promising for achieving net negative emissions, its main obstacles remain its high cost (currently $200-700 per tonne) and high energy intensity. DACCS is likely to become a tool of „last resort“ for sectors that cannot be decarbonised otherwise, but its mass deployment is not expected until after 2030, when emissions prices could rise to the level of its costs.

3. WECCS: Turning Waste into a Climate Asset Waste to Energy with Carbon Capture (WECCS) offers a unique triple benefit: it prevents methane emissions from landfill, reduces fossil emissions and permanently stores biogenic carbon from organic waste. In the UK, WECCS could capture 5 to 8 million tonnes of CO₂ per year, turning waste incinerators into carbon-negative power plants. Analyses show that WECCS provides up to twice the net climate benefit per ton of waste than the production of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF).

4. Accelerated rock weathering and mineralization These methods accelerate the natural geochemical cycle in which rocks absorb CO₂. Spreading crushed minerals, such as limestone or basalt, on agricultural land converts atmospheric CO₂ into stable bicarbonates. Limestone weathers to 10,000 times faster than silicates, making it a more effective tool in the face of the climate crisis. Ex situ mineralization (ESEM) allows CO₂ to be sequestered in industrial waste (e.g. steel slag), creating building materials with a negative carbon footprint.

5. Marine Carbon Removal (mCDR) The oceans are the largest carbon reservoir on the planet. Methods for mCDR include increasing ocean alkalinity or direct CO₂ capture from seawater (DOC). The advantage of DOC is that it does not require chemical adsorbents like DAC and can utilize existing infrastructure, such as desalination plants. Despite its enormous potential, mCDR faces environmental uncertainties and requires strict international governance.

Key factors for global scaling

For CDR to become a routine part of climate policy, three fundamental factors must be met:

• Demand generation through policy: Voluntary purchases of credits (e.g. by Microsoft or Google) were key to the start of the sector, but for real scaling, the integration of CDRs into binding emissions trading systems (ETS) is necessary.
• Robust Monitoring and Verification (MRV): Market confidence depends on the ability to prove that the carbon removed is actually and permanently stored. Standardized ocean or land monitoring networks are essential for CDR credits to become bankable assets.
• Cost reduction and innovation: Standardization of capture device design (modular approach) and the use of new materials such as metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) can reduce investment costs by 15 % to 40 %.

Legal and economic context

CDR technologies often find themselves in the so-called „valley of death“ between research and commercial deployment. Existing legal frameworks, originally designed for agriculture or waste management, often do not account for CDR, creating uncertainty for investors. Clarifying ownership rights to CO₂ and responsibilities for long-term storage is critical for market development.

From an economic perspective, integrating a diverse portfolio of CDR credits into the EU's 2040 targets could save countries up to EUR 50 billion per year compared to an approach that would rely solely on expensive domestic measures.

Building a carbon removal market can be likened to putting together an orchestra: governments set the pace (regulation), scientists provide the tools (technology), and investors fund the performance. The CDR sector is moving from the margins of the climate debate to its centre. While the technical and financial challenges are considerable, the prospect of technologies such as biochar, DACCS and WECCS offers hope that humanity can actively redress the planet’s climate balance. In a post-COP30 world, ambition will no longer be enough; it will take courage to start removing what we have been unable to avoid. JRi&CO2AI 

Source: ORCHESTRATING CARBON REMOVAL