The European Union has committed to achieving climate neutrality by 2050. This goal requires a fundamental transformation of energy, industry and transport, which brings with it not only opportunities for modernisation but also significant social risks. For this change to be successful and sustainable, it must be fair. If climate action threatens livelihoods without adequate compensation, there is a risk of loss of public support and increased political resistance, as confirmed by past protests in some Member States.

Bridging the gaps in the current framework

Although the EU has introduced instruments such as the Just Transition Mechanism (JTM) and the Social and Climate Fund (SCF), these primarily provide financial support but do not create enforceable rights for workers or binding obligations for companies. The current approach remains largely reactive and dependent on continuity of funding.

In response to these shortcomings, voices are growing louder after the introduction of Just Transition Directives (JTD). This legislation should anchor worker protection directly in EU law and transform time-limited financial assistance into a permanent rights-based framework.

Two pillars of successful transformation

According to expert studies, the potential directive should be based on two main pillars:

1. Mandatory anticipatory transformation planning: Companies should be obliged to prepare just transition plans in cooperation with employee representatives. Early preparation for industrial change helps prevent unnecessary job losses and destabilizing shocks in regions.
2. Legal right to paid educational leave: Workers should have the right to upskill or reskill for the green and digital economy. This step directly addresses the main barriers to adult learning, which are lack of time and loss of income.

Scenarios to 2045: What awaits us?

An analysis of seven Member States (Croatia, Denmark, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Poland) shows how the situation could develop over a twenty-year horizon under different policy approaches:

• Business-as-usual scenario: Decarbonization continues, but regional disparities and skills shortages persist. This model fails to address the growing pressure of automation and the uneven impacts in fossil fuel-dependent regions.
• Weak guideline: Measures limited to large companies or selected carbon-intensive sectors only bring local benefits. They risk creating „two-speed“ labour markets, where workers in small businesses and peripheral regions are exposed to greater insecurity.
• Strong guideline: The full application of the rules brings positive results for all Member States, with the greatest gains recorded in countries with weaker institutions and a high transition risk, such as Poland, Lithuania and Croatia.

The Cost of Inaction: Why Do We Need to Act Now?

Inaction on social justice is not free. Without new measures, the green transition is likely to deepen existing disparities. This leads not only to economic losses, but also to an erosion of trust, increased social spending, and political resistance to climate commitments.

Given that EU economies are closely integrated through supply chains and migration, a failure of transition in one country creates negative spillover effects for others. Conversely, a well-managed transition strengthens the single market and increases the resilience of the entire EU.

Regional impacts and social cohesion

The study highlights that participatory planning strengthens social cohesion. When workers are informed and have the opportunity to influence transformation strategies, climate policies are perceived as fairer and gain wider public acceptance.

In countries with advanced systems, such as Denmark and the Netherlands, the new legislation brings added value, in particular by improving access to training for workers in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and subcontracting chains. In regions heavily dependent on a single sector (such as the coal regions in Poland or industrial centres in Lithuania), early training has been shown to shorten unemployment spells and reduce forced migration rates.

The social sustainability of the European Green Deal depends on proactive policies that prepare companies for the coming changes and empower workers. Key steps include:

• Anchoring the individual right to paid education in EU law, which will allow workers to adapt without the risk of losing income.
• Ensuring predictable and adequate funding, which builds public and investor confidence.
• Focusing support on SMEs, which often do not have sufficient capacity to independently plan the transformation.

The goal must be a state where decarbonization is not seen as a threat to economic stability, but as a path to a fairer and more modern social model that leaves no community behind. JRi&CO2AI