New study prepared by Wageningen Environmental Research, Guidehouse and Fondazione MEDES for the European Commission, provides a comprehensive view of how agricultural land use in the EU-27 has developed over the past 30 years and how it can develop sustainably over the next three decades. Sources indicate that although the area of arable land in the EU-27 decreased from 120 million hectares in 1990 to 111 million hectares in 2022, total agricultural production paradoxically increased from 488 to 510 million tonnes of dry matter..

Trends of the last three decades

According to sources, land use change was the main factor in almost half of EU regions urbanization, followed by afforestation (31 %), intensification (14 %) and extensification or creation of natural areas (5 %). To better understand these changes, the study developed the RALUC (Rural Agricultural Land Use Change) typology, which divides regions based on dominant land use dynamics and socioeconomic characteristics.

Urbanization has particularly affected areas with high population density in Germany, France, northern Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and Poland.. A specific phenomenon is the so-called "coastalization" (land grabbing in coastal areas), driven by tourism, especially in Spain, France and Italy. At the opposite end of the spectrum are rural regions in Spain, Portugal and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, where afforestation and extensification dominate.

Sources emphasize that Livestock feed production dominates the land use structure, covering 53 % of area in 2022 and representing 60 % of total production in dry matter tonnes. This trend is closely linked to the dietary habits of Europeans and the high consumption of animal protein. The area used for energy crops has also increased significantly, from 57,000 hectares in 1990 to around 6.2 million hectares in 2022.

Scenarios until 2050

The study analyzes two main scenarios of the future: „Business as Usual“ (BAU) and „Sustainable Agriculture“ (SA).

• In the BAU scenario, where no new policy instruments are envisaged, more than 8 million hectares of agricultural land due to urbanization, degradation and land abandonment.
• In the SA scenario, which is in line with the objectives of the strategy Farm to Fork and the Green Deal, land losses would be significantly reduced thanks to active policy interventions.

Sources indicate that climate change will cause regional differences: while the Mediterranean will face increased aridity and soil loss, northern and continental zones may see a slight increase in agricultural area thanks to a longer growing season.

Key recommendations for sustainability

To achieve sustainable agriculture, the sources suggest several strategic steps:

1. Regional approach to livestock farming: In some regions, it is necessary to reduce animal numbers to reduce methane and nitrogen emissions, while in others, their maintenance is crucial for preserving the biodiversity of traditional pastures and producing organic fertilizer.
2. Innovations in energy: Support agro-photovoltaics (agro-PV), where panels protect crops from excessive water evaporation, and the construction of modern biogas production facilities.
3. Ecosystem restoration: The priority should be the restoration of peatlands, support for agroforestry and precision agriculture.
4. Social and demographic support: The stability of the sector in the "new EU" depends on halting rural depopulation and attracting young people.

According to sources, the success of the transition to a sustainable model will also depend on a change in society's lifestyle., especially from the transition to plant-based proteins, without which achieving the goals of the Farm to Fork strategy will be extremely difficult. JRi&CO2AI