The European Union has legally committed to achieving climate neutrality by 2050. As further milestones are defined, there is growing urgency to clarify the role of individual sectors in climate change mitigation and their contribution. to residual emissions. Residual emissions are usually defined as those whose reduction is technically infeasible or economically unjustified under given assumptions.

Agriculture is commonly referred to as a „hard-to-abate“ sector. It is expected to become the largest contributor to residual emissions and the dominant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU by 2040, as other sectors undergo faster decarbonisation.

The critical role of non-CO₂ emissions

Agriculture is the largest sectoral source of global emissions methane (CH₄) a nitrous oxide (N₂O), with these non-CO₂ gases having significantly higher global warming potential than carbon dioxide. N₂O has approximately 273 times the global warming potential (over 100 years) and damages the stratospheric ozone layer. Methane, although it has a shorter atmospheric lifetime, is approximately 84 times more potent than CO₂ in the short term (20 years). It is also a key factor in the formation of tropospheric ozone, which has adverse health effects and causes crop losses.

Non-CO₂ emissions from agriculture in the EU (including enteric fermentation and soil management) accounted for 12 % of total net CAP emissions in 2023. The scenario analysis by the Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) focuses on the three largest sources of emissions: enteric fermentation of livestock, manure management and N₂O emissions from agricultural land.

Range of possible outcomes

The scenarios examined for the EU agricultural sector show a wide range of possible outcomes. Residual emissions range from 150 Mt CO₂e by 2045/2050 (Agora Agriculture scenario) to 275 Mt CO₂e by 2050 (EcAMPA 4 CP scenario). This represents the difference between 59 % and 25 % by reducing emissions compared to 2023 levels.

The differences are primarily due to model assumptions, particularly regarding changes in consumer behavior and the deployment of mitigation technologies.

Pathways to ambitious emission reductions

Scenarios that assume shift in demand away from animal proteins together with the introduction of mitigation technologies, achieve the highest emission reductions. These scenarios, such as Agora and LIFE (developed as part of the impact assessment for the EU 2040 target), assume a reduction in meat and dairy consumption.

These pathways also offer significant co-benefits that go beyond climate. Reduced demand for animal products reduces the need for feed imports (by 55–100 % in the Agora and TYFA scenarios), thereby alleviating pressure on land outside the EU and improving the EU's trade balance. In addition, modelled dietary shifts (e.g. in the LIFE, Agora and TYFA scenarios) are expected to lead to positive public health outcomes through reduced consumption of excessive meat and saturated fat.

Agroecology-focused scenarios (e.g. TYFA) demonstrate that agricultural production can remain sufficient to cover the EU's nutritional needs until 2050, even with an overall decline in production volumes, the elimination of synthetic fertilizers and the restoration of EU self-sufficiency in protein.

The role of technology and the carbon price

Scenarios that do not include exogenous (external) shifts in demand (e.g. S2, S3, EcAMPA 4 CP) achieve emission reductions mainly through technology implementation.

In these scenarios, the application of mitigation measures is driven by the expected costs and application carbon prices on emissions from agriculture, which in the analyzed studies ranges from EUR 100 to EUR 470 per ton of CO₂e.

In crop production, the main factor in reducing emissions is the use of nitrification inhibitors in the application of synthetic fertilizers. In the livestock sector, the greatest technological potential is associated with feed additives 3-NOP a anaerobic digestion. However, it is worth noting that large-scale deployment of these technologies often requires some level of intensification and consolidation, which may conflict with other sustainability goals.

Political implications

Achieving the lowest residual emissions pathways is the safest course to limit climate change. EU policy should prioritise the conditions that enable the most ambitious scenarios. This requires renewed attention to sustainable eating habits and the broader food environment, for example through price and tax reform.

A comprehensive and coherent approach is essential for the agricultural sector long-term vision by 2040 and 2050, which takes into account not only emission reductions but also human health, biodiversity and climate resilience. Ensuring a just transition for farmers is key, finding a balance between applying the polluter pays principle and providing targeted public funding to support the uptake of new sustainable practices. JRi

A message with the name „"Residual emissions in EU agriculture"“ (Residual emissions in EU agriculture)