Every day we hear about new climate solutions. We see images of solar farms on the news, we read about the electric car boom, and we watch world leaders meet at summits. Yet many of us feel that the climate crisis is actually This sense of frustration is not just a perception – it is a reality that the hope of the Paris Agreement has been overshadowed in recent years by global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, wars and political regression.

Latest report „The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) of November 2025 delivers a stark verdict on where the world really stands in the fight against climate change. Analysts have collected data on the policies, commitments and real action of dozens of countries, and their conclusions reveal why our collective progress is stagnating, even as we seem to be more active than ever.

This article summarizes five of the most surprising and important findings from this landmark report. These facts change the way we look at the current state of the fight against climate change and reveal the uncomfortable truth we need to hear in order to finally take action.

1. The illusion of progress: We have been standing still for four years

The report’s most shocking conclusion is that despite all our efforts, our ultimate goal has not come any closer over the past four years. The CAT analysis shows that the warming projection based on the submitted climate targets (so-called NDCs) has remained virtually unchanged over this period and remains stuck at catastrophic levels. 2.6°C by the end of the century – just like last year.

Strikingly, the new wave of climate targets for 2035 has not changed this forecast. The report even reveals that the apparent improvement in another category – real policies and measures, where the forecast has dropped from 2.7°C to 2.6°C – is an illusion. This shift is largely due to a methodological change in China’s emissions modelling, not real progress in global climate policy. We are witnessing unprecedented activity, but the end result is unchanged.

2. The Paris Agreement wasn't a failure – it just got stuck

Amid the bad news about stagnation, the analysis offers one surprisingly positive finding that makes the current situation even more frustrating: The Paris Agreement initially worked. Coordinated global action had a real and measurable impact.

The report provides a key statistic that demonstrates this. In 2015, before the agreement entered into force, the world was heading according to the policies in force at the time to warming up to 3.6°C. Thanks to the commitments and policies adopted by countries in the following years, this dire projection has been reduced by a full degree Celsius to current levels. 2.6°C.

But this significant progress occurred mostly in the first five years after the agreement, up until around 2020. Since then, the momentum has almost completely dissipated. It is proof that international cooperation can deliver results, but it is also a chilling reminder that we have lost that momentum. So how is it that we have squandered this initial success? The answer lies in the massive tug-of-war that now defines global climate policy.

3. The Great Climate Tug of War: The Forces of Progress and Destruction Cancel Each Other Out

The CAT analysis interprets the current stagnation not as a consequence of inaction, but as the result of a fierce battle between two extremely powerful, opposing trends that cancel each other out and keep the world in a stalemate.

On one side of the rope is the „cleantech revolution.“ This force is real and accelerating faster than anyone predicted:

• Renewables, especially solar and wind power, are booming. By 2025, they will generate more electricity globally than coal for the first time in history.
• Countries like Chile are showing the world how quickly solar energy can grow, India has surpassed its non-fossil fuel targets ahead of schedule, and Ethiopia has banned the import of cars with internal combustion engines.

On the other, destructive side of the rope, however, the ongoing expansion of fossil fuels is pulling just as strongly:

• Many countries such as Australia, China, India and Saudi Arabia continue to invest massively in coal, oil and natural gas.
• The United States under the new administration, the report states, is „actively canceling offshore wind projects, limiting incentives for renewables, lowering limits on carbon pollution, and actively expanding oil and gas production.“.

4. We will miss the 1.5°C target. The question is by how much and whether we can come back.

Following a stagnation after 2020, when global greenhouse gas emissions did not fall, but remained flat or even increased, the report delivers a sobering verdict. According to the latest data, it is now „very likely“ that the world will exceed the 1.5°C long-term average warming limit in the next decade, sometime in the early 2030s. This phenomenon, known as an „overshoot,“ is now all but inevitable.

But the fight doesn't end there. The goal now becomes to minimize, how much we will pass this critical threshold and how quickly we can get back below it. But the report also offers a ray of hope. The „highest ambition“ path could limit maximum warming to 1.7°C. With radical emissions reductions and technologies to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, temperatures could return to below 1.5°C by the end of the century. The time to prevent a shootout is over; now we are fighting to minimize the damage. As the report reminds us:

„"The atmosphere does not negotiate and does not wait."“

5. The new wave of promises for 2035 is disappointing

An analysis of the latest climate commitments (NDCs) for 2035 reveals the crux of the problem: the world’s biggest polluters are failing. China and the EU have failed to put forward targets that would significantly change course, and the US is even actively rolling back climate policies and withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. As a result, the new pledges have failed to „turn the dial“ on global warming.

The so-called „emissions gap“, the difference between what countries pledge and what is needed for 1.5°C, is actually widening. While in 2030 this gap will amount to 29 gigatonnes of CO2e (GtCO2e), by 2035 it will grow to 31 GtCO2e.

Many of the new targets are problematic. Some, like China’s, are achievable with current policies. Others, like Australia and Brazil, rely on creative forest accounting (known as LULUCF – land use, land use change and forestry) to cover up insufficient emissions reductions. And others, like the United Arab Emirates, lack any concrete plans for implementation.

The technology is ready. What about the political will?

The Climate Action Tracker report shows that the world is at a critical crossroads. Technological progress in clean energy is real, tangible and faster than expected. But this positive trend is systematically hampered by a lack of political courage and the continued influence of the fossil fuel industry.

A message shows that we already have the technologies to save the climate. So the question is not whether a 1.5°C future is possible, but whether we as a society choose it. Are we ready for it? JRi