The planet is currently grappling with a “new reality.” Recent research compiled by 160 scientists warns that we are rapidly approaching several critical thresholds in the Earth system, known as “tipping points.” The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines tipping points as critical thresholds in a system, after which a significant change in the state of the system may occur, often with the understanding that this change is irreversibleUnfortunately, with global warming already surpassing 1.3°C since the Industrial Revolution, one such tipping point is already within reach: the mass extinction of coral reefs.

Unless global warming is drastically reduced, “vast swaths of reefs as we know them will be lost.” The scientific community warns that we have pushed coral reefs beyond their capacity to cope. According to the latest report from the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRMN), the world has lost approximately 14 % coralsThe crisis has intensified since 2023, when corals experienced the largest mass coral bleaching event on record, affecting 84 million reefs in at least 83 countries and territories. This is the fourth such event and the second in the last decade.

Coral reefs are critically important ecosystems found in more than 100 countries and territories. They support at least 25 % marine species and are crucial for maintaining the Earth's vast and interconnected network of marine biodiversity. They are sometimes referred to as the "rainforests of the sea" for their ability to act as carbon sinks by absorbing excess carbon dioxide in the water. Moreover, the ecosystem services they provide are valued to the $9.9 trillion per yearCorals of the genus Acropora they are particularly susceptible to bleaching and show lower tolerance to changes in water quality.

Crossing tipping points can trigger self-reinforcing feedback loops that further increase global warming, such as thawing permafrost or mass forest dieback. Tipping points are also interconnected; once one system collapses, it is more likely that others will be triggered.

If global warming is not curbed, we can expect other critical thresholds to be breached. These include the collapse of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, the sudden thawing of permafrost, and the death of the Amazon rainforest. Current commitments to reduce emissions are putting us on track for warming of 2.6°C to 3.1°C.

Several studies also indicate that Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a key system of global ocean currents that regulates the distribution of heat, is on the verge of a tipping point. The influx of freshwater into the Atlantic Ocean from rapidly melting ice and global warming is pushing the system to the brink of collapse. Without this steady flow of the AMOC, regional temperatures would become more extreme, leading to potentially severe cooling in the North Atlantic and intense warming near the equator, reducing the habitability of Earth.

As COP30, the most important international climate summit of the year, approaches, the report urges countries to do everything they can to limit warming to 1.5°C, which will require halving global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and achieving net zero emissions by mid-century. But COP30 President André Aranha Correa do Lago said that every tipping point is an opportunity. He urged countries to scale up solutions at the COP30 summit in Brazil, stressing that if forests are at risk, restoring them can unlock carbon sequestration and restore biodiversity. If energy systems remain carbon-intensive, the exponential adoption of renewables and electrification can define a new development model. These steps are necessary because, as scientists have warned, "If we wait until we cross the tipping points, it will be too late". CO2AI