The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released an update to its key 2023 messages “Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5°C Goal in Reach.” Originally published in May 2021 for the Energy and Climate World groundbreaking and set an authoritative benchmark for the clean energy sector to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. Interest in it was huge, reflecting the strong demand for impartial analysis translating the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals into practical milestones for the global energy sector.

Many changes have occurred since the first map was launched, including the intense economic recovery following the Covid-19 crisis and the global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. These events led to global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reaching a new record of 37 billion tonnes (Gt) in 2022. As a result, the path to staying within the 1.5°C limit has narrowed. However, the IEA stresses that the global path to net zero by 2050 is still achievable.

The IEA’s Net Zero Energy (NZE) scenario shows that while demand for fossil fuels has not yet begun to decline, there has been exceptionally rapid progress in key clean energy technologies such as solar PV and electric vehicles (EVs). In fact, solar PV installations and electric car sales are in line with the milestones set in the original 2021 report.

Key measures related to technologies already available will deliver the largest emission reductions by 2030:

1. Tripling global installed renewable capacity to 11,000 GW by 2030 represents the largest contribution to emissions reductions in the NZE scenario. Solar PV and wind are the cheapest and fastest deployable sources.
2. Doubling the annual pace of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. This leads to energy savings that are equivalent to today's oil consumption in road transport.
3. Accelerated electrification in transport (EVs) and buildings (heat pumps), which will provide almost a fifth of emissions reductions by 2030. Electric car sales are on track to reach two-thirds of new car sales by 2030.
4. Reducing methane emissions from the energy sector by 75 % by 2030. This measure is among the cheapest opportunities to limit warming in the short term.

In the NZE scenario, falling demand for fossil fuels leads to a crucial milestone: no investment is needed in new coal mines, their extensions, or in new conventional oil and gas extraction projectsAt the same time, it is essential to accelerate investments in electricity grids, as well as in hydrogen (H2) and CCUS (carbon capture and storage) infrastructure, as building networks and infrastructure takes a long time. For example, transmission and distribution networks should be expanded by around 2 million kilometers per year by 2030.

A key principle of the NZE scenario is a fair and differentiated path. Developed economies should reach net zero emissions earlier, around 2045, to give emerging economies more time. Strong and efficient international cooperation is essential to avoid fragmentation and to secure financing for emerging markets, where the cost of capital for renewable energy sources (RES) is at least double that of developed economies. Without increased ambition and implementation of policies before 2030, limiting global warming to 1.5°C will be much more difficult. JRi