The next 30th climate summit COP30 will take place from 10 to 21 November 2025 in Belém, BrazilThis summit comes at a time of deepening climate crisis and following urgent warnings from scientists that crossing the global 1.5°C warming is imminent. The World Meteorological Organization confirmed that in 2024 the average global temperature reached approximately 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, underlining the urgency of the situation.

Scientific warnings and the urgency of action

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stresses that the 1.5°C limit can only be maintained if global greenhouse gas emissions will peak before 2025 and fall by about 43 % by 2030. Scientists have repeatedly warned that every additional 0.1°C of warming would dramatically worsen the impacts of the climate crisis, increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events (such as heat waves and floods) and increase the likelihood of “climate feedbacks.” The IPCC warns that exceeding warming even for a short time increases the risk of so-called climate “tippings,” such as the collapse of the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets, which would cause irreversible sea level rise. To avoid these scenarios, climatologists emphasize urgent reduction of emissions and the need to achieve global net zero CO₂ emissions by around 2050 (for a 1.5°C limit). However, current nationally determined commitments (NDCs) cover only a fraction of the reductions needed (around 5–6 % by 2030).

Key policy decisions expected at COP30

Political action at the summit should focus on a systemic shift away from fossil fuels and the implementation of climate action. The most important ones include:

• Gradual transition away from fossil fuels: Banning the construction of new coal, oil and gas power plants and phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, with support for a shift to renewable energy sources (RES). The IEA suggests that in a carbon neutral scenario by 2050, almost 90 % of electricity could come from RES.
• Binding climate laws: Adopting strict legislative targets (e.g. carbon neutrality by 2050), carbon budgets and CO₂ pricing system (emission allowances or carbon tax).
• A functioning carbon market: Implementation of the final rules of the Paris Agreement Emissions Trading System (Article 6) with uniform standards and a reliable methodology for measuring emissions.
• Massive development of clean technologies: Significant increase in investments in renewable energy, battery storage, smart grids and emission-reducing technologies. The COP28 Global Outcome Summary called on countries to tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030.
• Electrification of transport: Introducing a binding deadline for ending the sale of new fossil fuel cars (e.g. by 2035) and supporting the growth of electric vehicles.
• Just transition: Providing support for workers and communities dependent on fossil resources (retraining, investments in green industry).

Necessary tightening of nationally determined commitments (NDCs)

Countries need to significantly strengthen their National Climate Plans (NDCs) to reflect the scientific evidence. More ambitious emission reduction targets are expected (around 43 % by 2030 compared to 2019) and comprehensive coverage of all sectors and greenhouse gases. NDCs should include a long-term vision of carbon neutrality by mid-century and intermediate targets. It is also important to strengthen adaptation measures, increase transparency and fulfill commitments by developed countries to finance climate action in developing countries.

Adaptation financing and loss and damage fund

COP30 is expected to bring about a drastic increase in resources for climate adaptation in developing countries. The estimated adaptation needs are USD 200-300 billion per year by 2030, while international flows for adaptation reached only around USD 28 billion in 2022. The breakthrough should be new collective quantified target (NCQG) for climate finance, which COP29 proposed to increase to $300 billion per year by 2035 (with a roadmap to 1.3 trillion by 2035), with a significant portion to be directed towards adaptation.

Another key topic is joint liability for non-economic losses and damages. A Loss and Damage Fund was established at COP27, to which approximately USD 0.66 billion has already been contributed at COP28. The World Bank has been temporarily entrusted with the role of host secretariat for the first four years. Further financial commitments and clear mechanisms for the functioning of the Fund are expected at COP30, with a new independent Board of the Fund to approve funding priorities and criteria. The Fund is expected to start making its first payments to affected communities in 2025. Proposals to introduce financial contributions from countries responsible for emissions, for example through carbon taxes, are also being discussed.

Technological innovations for climate goals

Technological progress is key to achieving climate goals. Key solutions include:

• Renewable energy sources (RES): Solar, wind, hydro and geothermal power plants must significantly replace fossil fuels. The IEA estimates that in a carbon neutrality scenario, renewables will play a dominant role by 2050, providing up to 90% of electricity generation.
• Carbon capture (CCS) and CO₂ removal: Essential for sectors with hard-to-replace emissions (e.g. steel, concrete). All paths to 1.5°C involve the use of so-called carbon removal, such as BECCS (bioenergy with CCS) or direct capture of CO₂ from the air. These technologies require massive investments in research and development.
• Innovations in agriculture and land: Precision and regenerative agriculture, more careful use of fertilizers and reducing food waste can significantly reduce emissions. Afforestation and research programs into new varieties resistant to extreme weather are also important.
• Other clean technologies: Massive electrification of transport and heating, development of hydrogen economies and modernization of the construction sector.

The world expects COP30 to deliver not only political demands but also concrete progress in preparing and financing technical innovations that will reduce emissions and improve the adaptability of societies. All these measures should be enshrined in formal summit resolutions and subsequently implemented in national policies to achieve concrete results. JRi