New study warns that the vast majority of the world's landmasses have already exceeded the "safe ecological limits" of the biosphere, posing significant risks to the stability of natural systems and life on Earth. This situation requires an immediate and coordinated global response.

What did the new study reveal?

The study, published in August 2025 in the journal One Earth, was carried out by researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts (PIK) and BOKU at the University of Vienna. The scientists analyzed historical data dating back to 1600 using the LPJmL model, which simulates the flow of water, carbon and nitrogen in soil and vegetation on the Earth's surface.

The main finding is that 60 % of land on Earth has already exceeded locally defined ecological limits, known as the “safe operating space,” regarding the functional integrity of the biosphereIn addition, from the remaining areas there are other 38 % designated as high risk areas ("high-risk zone").

Functional biosphere integrity refers to the ability of plants and ecosystems to maintain the flow of energy through photosynthesis, thereby maintaining material and biochemical cycles – of carbon, water and nitrogen – despite human intervention.

Historical development and geographical distribution of risk

The situation has deteriorated significantly over the centuries. While in 1900 “only” 37 % of land were outside the safe zone and 14 % constituted high-risk areas, today these numbers are dramatically higher: 60 % outside the safe zone and 38 % with high risk.

Geographically, the most at risk areas are Europe, Asia and North America.These are primarily regions with intensive agricultural activity, significant urbanization and extensive deforestation.

Main causes of exceeding limits

Exceeding safe limits of the biosphere is caused by several factors:

1. Intensive use of biomass: Harvesting crops, logging, the use of biofuels and plant residues put enormous pressure on natural systems.
2. Land conversion and deforestation: Vegetation cover is being replaced by fields, urban areas and infrastructure. This leads to a reduction in photosynthesis capacity and a deterioration of the carbon, water and nitrogen cycles.
3. Soil compaction and sealing: Urbanization and concreting reduce soil productivity and its ability to retain water, contributing to vegetation degradation.

Serious consequences for the planet and humanity

Exceeding these ecological limits has far-reaching and serious consequences:

• Threat to food security: Land degradation reduces crop yields, while changes in the water cycle can cause extreme events such as droughts or floods.
• Reduced ability of the biosphere to absorb carbon: If vegetation and soil lose their ability to sequester carbon, climate models will begin to diverge and emissions reduction targets will become much more challenging.
• Biodiversity losses: Changes in ecosystem structure, such as changes in species composition and fragmentation, lead to reduced resilience to external shocks.
• Cascading effects: Changes in one ecological element, such as vegetation, can trigger other chain reactions, such as aridity, erosion, and changes in local microclimate.

Recommended measures and policy context

The researchers propose specific steps to reverse this alarming trend:

• Biosphere protection as a central element of climate policy: Biosphere integrity must be considered as valuable as reducing CO₂ emissions.
• Regional approaches: It is essential to set local limits that take into account local ecology, soil and vegetation biomass tolerance, and to adapt policies to the specific needs of regions.
• Change in land use: The key is less intensive agriculture, restoring ecosystems, limiting deforestation and urbanization while preserving green infrastructure.
• Improving monitoring: Better monitoring of vegetation and photosynthetic activity (using satellites and models such as LPJmL) is essential for early identification of risk zones.

This study provides a strong basis for international agreements such as Conference on Biological Diversity (CBD), goals SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals) and EU policies aimed at nature protection, agriculture and climate-friendly green energy.

Time to act is running out.

The study by PIK and BOKU delivers a clear and urgent signal: more than half of the Earth's land area is no longer within the biosphere's "safe zone"While this does not mean immediate disaster, it is a strong warning. Unless coordinated and globally effective action is taken, damage to ecosystems could be irreversible in many areas.

Defending biospheric integrity – preserving vegetation, healthy soils and local biological cycles – must become an integral part of both policy and innovation.Time is limited and the risks grow exponentially. JRi

Sources:

• Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) + BOKU: Breaching Planetary Boundaries: Over half of the global land area suffers critical losses in functional biosphere integrity, One Earth (2025). ([pik-potsdam.de])
• ScienceDaily — Earth's safe zones are vanishing fast. ([ScienceDaily])