"Low-carbon strategy Development Strategy of the Slovak Republic until 2030 with a view to 2050" (hereinafter referred to as the Strategy) is a key document aimed at identifying the measures necessary for Slovakia's transition to a low-carbon economy, which should result in achieving climate neutrality by 2050. This ambitious goal, to which Slovakia committed in June 2019, is in line with the Paris Agreement and the European Green Deal. The transformation is expected to bring significant environmental, economic and health benefits, while climate change represents a huge destructive potential that could threaten the functioning of the state and society.

Main goals and challenges

The strategy was developed based on modelling of various scenarios, including business as usual (WEM) scenario a scenarios with additional measures (WAM). However, even these scenarios, as analyzed in detail, are unlikely to lead Slovakia to climate neutrality without further efforts. The projected emission residual in 2050 could be 14 MtCO2eq excluding capture from the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, or at least 7 MtCO2eq after taking into account the maximum possible removals from LULUCFIt is this residue that will be the most difficult and expensive to eliminate. The strategy therefore proposes other additional measures, marked as NEUTRAL, which have not yet been modeled and are intended to help Slovakia achieve climate neutrality.

Costs and benefits of decarbonization

Decarbonizing the Slovak economy according to the WAM scenario, which assumes a reduction in emissions by 70 % compared to 1990 (excluding LULUCF removals), would require additional costs of €8 billion by 2030 a 196 billion euros in 2031-2050 compared to the WEM reference scenario. Average annual expenditure would amount to 1.8 % GDP by 2040 and 4.2 % GDP on average in the years 2020-2050. These costs include investments by households, the business sector and the state in areas such as insulation, energy-efficient appliances and renewable energy sources. Despite the initial costs, the low-carbon transition holds promise environmental, economic and health benefits and can last a long time support GDP growthOn the other hand, it may lead to lower household consumption and a redistribution of labor, which will require social projects and education to adapt the labor force to new market demands.

Financing options

Substantial resources will be available to finance climate action. By 2030, 9.9 to 10.5 billion euros from the EU budget (until 2027), the Modernisation Fund and the Environmental Fund. In the long term, between 2027 and 2050, it is expected that Slovakia will have at its disposal 42 to 45 billion euros only from the EU budget for climate action. The main financial instruments include: the Modernisation Fund (with a share for Slovakia of approximately EUR 1.35 billion by 2030), the Innovation Fund, the EU budget (European Structural and Investment Funds) with a planned 25 % of climate change expenditure, the Environmental Fund, as well as other funds from abroad and the European Green Deal Investment Plan (including the Just Transition Mechanism).

Sectoral efforts and coordination

All emitting sectors will have to contribute together to achieve the target. Sectors such as transport and agriculture must reverse the trend of non-decreasing emissions, while sectors energy and industrial processes must increase their reduction efforts to bring their emissions below the target emissions gap in 2050. In the sector LULUCF it is necessary to reverse the trend of declining CO2 capture. The Council of the Government of the Slovak Republic for the European Green Deal and Low-Carbon Transformation is to ensure consistent horizontal implementation of the measures., which is being approved together with this strategy.

The strategy presents a comprehensive framework for Slovakia's low-carbon transformation, but emphasizes the need for to further model and analyze the impacts of further additional measures (NEUTRAL), to truly achieve the goal of climate neutrality by 2050. It will also be necessary to reassess the readiness of state and public administration bodies to effectively use the growing funds allocated for decarbonization projects. Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century and its solution requires a comprehensive approach across the whole of society. JRi