A new study published in Communications Earth & Environment and led by researchers from the Potsdam Institute (PIK), RNORC and Northumbria University shows: even small warming around West Antarctica can trigger the collapse of the WAIS. This process could trigger a rise in ocean levels of approximately 4 meters, gradually over several centuries – but this is a practically irreversible phenomenon.
(pik-potsdam.de, ScienceDaily)

Non-return of paralysis of extended duration

According to David Chandler (RNORC), the WAIS has had two stable regimes over the past 800,000 years: one with the ice sheet intact (the current state) and one where the WAIS collapsed. The transition to a collapsed state can be triggered by very small ocean warming. And once it has started, the ice sheet remains collapsed even without further warming—recovery requires thousands of years of a colder environment than pre-industrial.
(pik-potsdam.de)

Antarctica is already losing ice – and very quickly

Another study from The Cryosphere warns that current ocean conditions may be sufficient to deglaciate much of the WAIS. Realistic models predict an initial slow retreat, followed by rapid mass loss at a rate of ~3 mm per year of global sea level rise.
(tc.copernicus.org)

Marine processes and uncertainty in predictions

The main fact is that the WAIS rests on underlying tectonic structures often below sea level, making it extremely vulnerable to warming oceans. Continued warming of the Amundsen area waters is reducing the support of the ice shelf and allowing ice to flow more rapidly into the sea — leading to a self-feeding process of retreat known as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISSION).
(Nature, Wikipedia)

Most famous threat: Thwaites

The WAIS also includes the Thwaites Glacier, nicknamed “Doomsday Glacier”It is the size of Great Britain and more than 2 km thick. Its complete collapse would raise sea levels by about 65 cm, but if it also triggered the collapse of nearby glaciers (e.g. Pine Island), the surge could reach a few meters per centuryIts flow has more than doubled since the 1990s, and its leading ice shelf is crumbling — potentially as early as 2026.
(News.com.au, Wikipedia)

What is the state of the planet? Alarm or hope?

According to Dr. Louise Sime of the British Antarctic Survey, because the WAIS is mostly below sea level, its collapse is much more severe than that of Greenland. This process could trigger a climate-driven shift if interventions are not made quickly.
(The Guardian)

On the other hand, millimeter-year changes may seem small, but they gradually lead to dramatic consequences — and often exceed IPCC assumptions or other model scenarios.

WAIS represents one of the most severe climate tipping points. Models confirm that a small increase in ocean temperature can trigger a collapse that can no longer be stopped. We are looking at a timescale of years, decades — while the ice sheet would take thousands of years to regrow. This development highlights the urgency of policy decisions built into decarbonization, climate protection, and oceans. CO2AI