Europe stands at a crossroads of intense global uncertainty, with climate change emerging as a key and complex threat. The European Commission's latest flagship report, "Analysis of the risks facing Europe", prepared by The Joint Research Centre (JRC) offers an integrated scientific analysis of 47 different risks, highlighting the urgent need for a cross-sectoral and whole-of-society approach. The report directly supports the objectives of the EU Preparedness Strategy and the Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM), providing a scientific basis for policy and operational decisions.

Climate change as a systemic risk

Climate change is described as cross-border, emerging and systemically linked riskIts impacts often amplify other threats, leading to compounding impacts that can cascade across sectors and regions. Of particular concern is the concept of Earth System Tipping Points (ESTPs), which represent critical thresholds beyond which the system reorganizes, often abruptly and irreversibly. Understanding and mitigating the risks associated with crossing these climate tipping points is essential for a resilient and sustainable future.

The impacts of climate change on Europe

The JRC report analysed a wide range of 47 risks, including natural ones such as floods, heatwaves, storms, droughts, forest fires and earthquakes, as well as biological ones, armed conflicts, hybrid threats and technological failures. Many of these risks are directly or indirectly linked to climate change. For example:

• Heat waves can significantly increase mortality; projections suggest an increase in annual heat-related deaths from 30,000 at 1.5°C warming to 96,000 at 3°C warming by 2100.
• Dry are strongly affected by climate change and are classified as high-impact, low-probability (HILP) hazards.
• Flood a coastal floods are 100 % transboundary and climate-related risks.
• Forest fires a convective storms they are also linked to climate change and have a high impact.
• The impacts do not only concern property and infrastructure, but also have significant impacts on human health, economy and supply chains. “Human health” is the most frequently affected sector, with almost 36 associated risks.

Evaluation frameworks and economic aspects

The report highlights that risk assessment faces significant challenges in addressing emerging threats, as historical data are often lacking, requiring a more qualitative approach focused on scenario planning and expert judgement. The European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) identified 36 climate risks with potentially serious consequences for Europe. However, there is still the need for comprehensive data on the impacts of climate change on European societies and ecosystems for informed policy-making and adaptation planning. The economics of disaster prevention and preparedness highlights the need for better information on the expected impacts of climate risks on financial stability and insurance markets, as well as solutions gaps in climate risk insurance.

Adaptation and mitigation measures

To strengthen Europe's resilience and preparedness, the report proposes a set of adaptation and mitigation measures:

• Adaptation measures They include the implementation of national heat health action plans, the development of climate-resilient health infrastructure and the strengthening of early warning systems. Technological solutions and urban greening are also proposed for heat waves.
• Mitigation measures for climate-related risks such as droughts and tropical cyclones include livelihood diversification, robust flood protection measures, support for green infrastructure and development of advanced early warning systems.
• It is key integrate climate change adaptation strategies into disaster risk management planning.

A message The JRC is a fundamental step towards building a more consistent, anticipatory risk assessment framework at EU level, underlining the need for systems thinking and integrated prevention strategies to ensure a more resilient European Union. Spring