The world should prepare for several years even more record-breaking heatthat will push the Earth towards more deadly, destructive and unpleasant extremes, warn the world's two leading meteorological agencies agencies, the World Meteorological Organization and the UK Met Office. According to their five-year forecast, there is 80% chanceThe world is likely to break another annual temperature record in the next five years. It is even more likely that the world will again exceed the international temperature limit set 10 years ago.

Higher global average temperatures may not sound concrete, but in real life they translate into higher probability of extreme weather: stronger hurricanes, heavier rainfall, drought, fires and hurricanes/typhoons enhanced by human activity. Every tenth of a degree, by which the world will warm due to human-caused climate change, means higher frequency and more extreme events, especially heat waves.

For the first time, there is a small but still possible chance that before the end of the decade global annual temperature will exceed the Paris Climate Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) and reach more alarming 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since the mid-19th century. It is projected that in the next five years, 86% chancethat one of these years will exceed 1.5 degrees, and 70% chancethat the average of these five years will exceed this global threshold. These projections are based on more than 200 predictions using computer simulations from 10 global scientific centers.

A decade ago, the same teams estimated a similarly small chance — about 1 in 100 — that one of the next few years would exceed the critical 1.5 degree threshold, and then it happened last year. This year, 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, enters the equation in a similar way, which scientists at the UK Met Office called “shocking.” Two degrees of warming is a secondary threshold in the 2015 Paris Agreement that was considered less likely to be exceeded.

Technically, even though 2024 was 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times, the Paris Climate Agreement threshold applies to a 20-year period, so it has not yet been exceeded. Taking into account the past 10 years and projections for the next 10 years, the world is currently likely to be about 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than since the mid-19th century.

With the next five years expected to be on average more than 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, more people than ever will be at risk severe heat waveswhich will lead to more deaths and serious health impactsunless people are better protected from the effects of heat. We can also expect more serious forest fires, as a warmer atmosphere dries out the land. Arctic ice – which will continue to warm 3.5 times faster like the rest of the world – will melt and seas will rise faster.

Global temperatures tend to rise like an escalator, with temporary and natural El Niño weather cycles acting as jumps up or down on that escalator. Recently, after each jump caused by El Niño that increases global warming, the planet has had little or no rebound. As Stanford University climatologist Rob Jackson has noted, "Record temperatures are instantly becoming the new normal.". Spring