Trends and forecasts in Europe 2024

Document The European Environment Agency's "Trends and projections in Europe 2024" examines historical trends, recent progress and expected future developments in climate change mitigation through greenhouse gas emission reductions, renewable energy gains and improved energy efficiency. The report focuses on progress towards the EU's 2030 climate and energy targets, with a focus on 2023.

In 2023, total net greenhouse gas emissions in the EU decreased by 8 % compared to 2022, reaching 37 % below 1990 levels. This represents the largest year-on-year reduction in emissions in decades, excluding 2020, which was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The reduction was mainly due to a decrease in emissions in the energy sector due to a significant increase in renewable energy production and a reduction in overall energy consumption.

Progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions varies significantly across economic sectors in Europe. Emissions in the energy supply sector have almost halved compared to 2005 levels, while industry has seen significant reductions of more than a third over the past two decades. These two sectors make up the bulk of the current European Emissions Trading System (ETS), which makes available the 2030 emission reduction target. On the other hand, sectors covered by the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR), such as buildings, transport, waste and agriculture, are making slower progress. While the buildings sector has achieved significant emission reductions, the transport sector has shown little progress and has become the largest source of emissions in the EU.

As regards renewable energy, the share of EU gross final energy consumption produced from renewable energy sources has increased by an average of 0.8 % per year since 2005. This pace must triple by 2030 to meet the targets. In terms of energy efficiency, acceleration is needed to achieve the targets.

These latest trends highlight the need for sustained efforts to reduce emissions across the EU and make progress towards climate neutrality. Member States need to step up efforts to achieve the 2030 targets, in particular in sectors covered by the ESR. Maintaining the momentum towards climate neutrality will require a clear and predictable policy framework after 2030, including agreement on a recommended 90% reduction target for emissions by 2040 and ensuring sufficient investment in a carbon-neutral economy of the future. Spring

Glossary of key terms

  • Climate neutrality: A state in which a balance is reached between greenhouse gas emissions and their removal from the atmosphere.
  • Greenhouse gas emissions (GHG): Gases that trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere and contribute to climate change.
  • Emissions Trading System (ETS): A system that sets a cap on total greenhouse gas emissions from certain sectors and allows companies to trade emission permits.
  • Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR): A regulation that sets binding national targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from sectors not covered by the ETS.
  • Renewable energy sources: Energy sources that are naturally replenished, such as solar energy, wind energy, hydropower and biomass.
  • Energy efficiency: Reducing energy consumption while maintaining or improving service levels.
  • Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector: A sector that includes CO2 emissions and removals from forests, land and land-use change.
  • Decarbonization: The process of reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
  • Fit for 55: A package of EU legislative proposals aimed at achieving the target of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030.
  • National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP): A plan that each EU Member State draws up to achieve the EU's climate and energy targets by 2030.

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