A 2024 report by the European Environment Agency (EEA) analyses Trends and projections in climate change mitigation in Europe. Assesses progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, expansion of renewable energy sources a increasing energy efficiencyThe report uses data from EU Member States and other countries and provides an overview of progress made towards the 2030 targets and long-term climate neutrality goals. Emphasizes differences in progress between sectors and countries and points out the need to accelerate efforts to achieve climate goals.

1. What progress has the EU made in achieving its 2030 climate and energy targets?

The EU has made significant progress towards its 2030 climate and energy targets. Preliminary estimates for 2023 indicate that EU greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 8 % compared to 2022, the largest year-on-year decrease in emissions recorded since 2005. This decrease was mainly driven by reductions in emissions from the energy sector, as well as from industry and buildings. As regards renewable energy sources, the overall share of renewable energy sources in gross final energy consumption in the EU increased to 23 % in 2022, up 0.8 percentage points compared to 2021.

Despite this progress, further efforts are needed to achieve the 2030 targets. Based on current policies and measures, Member States are projected to collectively reduce net emissions by 43 % by 2030 compared to 1990. Adding the additional measures currently planned, the projected greenhouse gas emission reductions reported under the Governance Regulation increase to 49 %, which still leaves a gap of six percentage points to the 2030 climate target.

2. Which sectors in the EU have made the most progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions?

The energy supply sector has made the greatest progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with emissions almost halved compared to 2005 levels. This reduction was driven by a significant reduction in coal use and an increasing use of renewable energy sources. The industrial sector has also seen significant emissions reductions, by more than a third over the past two decades, thanks to process improvements and efficiency gains. These two sectors make up the majority of the current European emissions trading scheme — the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) (EU, 2023b) — which enables the 2030 emission reduction target of the ETS to be achieved.

3. What is the role of different EU policies in achieving the 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target?

The EU has put in place a wide range of policy measures to ensure that climate goals are achieved. The current "Fit for 55" package has strengthened the existing framework and ensured that greenhouse gas emissions are included in one of the following key policy instruments:

• EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) covers greenhouse gas emissions from stationary installations in the energy sector and large industrial plants, which together accounted for 37 % of total EU greenhouse gas emissions in 2022. Since 2012, the ETS has also included CO2 emissions from aviation, while greenhouse gas emissions from maritime transport will be included from 2024. From 2027, a new and separate ETS will be established to cover CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in buildings, road transport and other sectors. The EU emissions trading scheme is based on a cap-and-trade system. A cap sets the total amount of greenhouse gases that operators included in the scheme can emit. Within the cap, operators buy or receive emission allowances that they can trade as needed. With the revision of the ETS Directive in 2023 (EU, 2023c), the cap set by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme was tightened, leading to a target of 62 % reductions in emissions in 2030 compared to 2005 levels. Since 2005, greenhouse gas emissions in the ETS sectors (stationary installations) have decreased significantly, with emissions in 2023 being 48 % lower than in 2005. In particular, the reductions in emissions were significant in 2023, with emissions from stationary installations decreasing by almost 17 % compared to 2022. Continued reductions in recent years allow the 2030 target to be achieved, although Member States' greenhouse gas emission projections for the ETS sector are still more than 10 % higher than the target.
• National greenhouse gas emission reduction targets are governed by the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) (EU, 2023g) and cover the transport, buildings, agriculture and waste sectors, as well as emissions from energy and industrial installations outside the current EU emissions trading system. These ESR emissions account for more than 60 % of total EU greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to setting national targets for Member States to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, the Effort Sharing Regulation also sets annual emission limits for the period 2021 to 2030. With the latest revision of the Effort Sharing Regulation, the Effort Sharing Regulation resulted in a targeted emission reduction of 40 % in 2030 compared to 2005. In 2022, ESR emissions were 18 % below the 2005 base year level, which is still below the trajectory towards the 2030 target set in the legislation. Estimates for 2023 indicate a slight additional decrease, bringing ESR emissions to 19 % lower than in 2005. This reduction again remains below the 2030 trajectory set in the Effort Sharing Regulation. To meet the ESR target by 2030, Member States will need to take additional measures to significantly reduce emissions.
• Carbon emissions and removals related to land use and land use change are included in the Regulation on greenhouse gas emissions and removals from land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) (EU, 2023f). In the EU, these activities collectively act as a net sink of greenhouse gases. In 2022, they removed the equivalent of 7 % (236 Mt CO2 eq.) of annual greenhouse gas emissions in the EU. This CO2 sink has decreased in the EU over the last decade, mainly due to increased harvesting combined with stabilising forest growth. Preliminary estimates for 2023 indicate a slight increase in carbon removals from LULUCF activities, although this trend needs to be confirmed by final data, given the differences between estimated and final data in this sector over the years. Member States’ projections indicate a stabilisation of removal capacity towards 2030, leaving a gap towards the LULUCF target.

4. How does the EU compare to the rest of the world in terms of greenhouse gas emissions?

Although emissions in Europe have fallen significantly since 1990, this is not the case globally. According to EDGAR estimates (Crippa et al., 2024), global greenhouse gas emissions (excluding emissions and removals from LULUCF) increased by 62 % between 1990 and 2023. At the sectoral level, global greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector and emissions from industrial processes have almost doubled since 1990, while transport (+78 %) has also seen a significant increase. As a result, the EU's share of annual global greenhouse gas emissions has decreased. In 1990, Europe was responsible for 15 % of global emissions. By 2023, this figure had fallen to just over 6 %. In terms of per capita emissions, the EU is still above the world average, with emissions reaching 7.26 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per capita (tCO2 eq/cap), while greenhouse gas emissions relative to GDP in the EU are significantly lower than the world average.

5. What is the EU's trajectory towards achieving climate neutrality?

The 2030 climate target is consistent with the EU’s broader objective of achieving climate neutrality by 2050 at the latest. In order to clarify the path towards this target, the Commission has assessed different options for setting an additional interim emission reduction target by 2040 (EC, 2024c). Based on a comprehensive impact assessment (EC, 2024b), the Commission recommended in a Communication (EC, 2024c) to reduce the EU’s net greenhouse gas emissions by 90 % by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. This recommendation reflects the minimum level of the 2040 target recommended by the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, 2023). This approach provides the greatest certainty of achieving climate neutrality by 2050, while increasing predictability and minimizing the overall budget of greenhouse gases emitted in the EU.

6. How does progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions vary across EU countries?

Overall, greenhouse gas emission reductions vary significantly between EU Member States. While countries such as Lithuania, Romania and Sweden have reduced their net greenhouse gas emissions by more than 70 % since 1990, other countries such as Cyprus and Ireland have seen net emissions increase.

Regarding the binding national climate targets under the Effort Sharing Regulation, most countries' emissions remain below the trajectory, although more and more Member States are falling behind. In 2022, emissions in the Effort Sharing sectors were below their respective annual emission allocations for all but eight Member States (Croatia, Cyprus, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Malta and Romania). Preliminary estimates suggest that this number will increase to ten in 2023.

7. What are the main trends in renewable energy sources in the EU?

The current target share of renewables in gross final energy consumption in the EU in 2030 is to reach at least 42.5 % and to strive to reach 45 % (EU, 2023d). Each Member State contributes to this target through its updated National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), the final versions of which were due by the end of June 2024. The total share of renewables in gross final energy consumption in the EU (RES – total) increased from 10.2 % in 2005 to 23.0 % in 2022 (Figure 1.6). This represents an average annual linear growth of 0.8 percentage points. Preliminary estimates suggest that the RES – total share for 2023 was 24.1 %.

8. What are the main trends in energy efficiency in the EU?

The EU has set a target of reducing energy consumption by 32.5 % by 2030 (compared to the 2007 baseline) and achieving a 20 % reduction by 2020. By 2022, the EU has reduced its final energy consumption by 9.7 %, although a significant part of this change has taken place in 2022. The EU has not set binding national energy efficiency targets; however, Member States have set their own energy efficiency targets as part of their NECPs. Spring