2023 was the warmest year on record. In the months of July and August, temperatures rose by 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels. This information raises questions about whether we have already violated the Paris Agreement, an international climate treaty signed by almost 200 countries in 2015.

Why is a 1.5°C increase in global temperature dangerous?

No level of global warming is safe. By burning coal, oil, and gas, we have fundamentally altered the Earth's carbon cycle, releasing significant amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. This has upset the balance of the Earth system and created pollution that traps heat in the atmosphere.

Global temperatures are now rising faster than at any time in Earth’s history. We are witnessing increasingly dangerous and frequent extreme weather events such as wildfires, floods, heat waves and droughts. Climatologists have long warned that to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change, we must drastically reduce pollution and limit global warming to as close to 1.5°C as possible. Every additional degree above this level exponentially increases climate damage and the risk of crossing tipping points in the climate system, which could lead to sudden and irreversible changes.

How does the Paris Agreement relate to 1.5°C of global warming?

In 2015, 196 countries committed to reducing climate pollution to keep the global average temperature rise well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. The Paris Agreement was signed in Paris, hence its name.

How do we know that we have exceeded the 1.5°C target under the Paris Agreement?

Average temperatures over a period of 20 to 30 years are used to assess whether the 1.5°C threshold has been exceeded. The pre-industrial period is usually defined as 1850-1900. The last decade, from 2014 to 2023, was estimated to be the warmest on record, with an average temperature about 1.2°C higher than the period 1850-1900.

The assessment of exceeding 1.5°C must be done in multi-year time intervals. One day, month or year with a temperature above the 1.5°C limit does not mean that this limit has been exceeded, but it signals that we are approaching it.

The Paris Agreement does not specify how many years the long-term trend should be, which can lead to different conclusions from experts. The Paris Agreement aims to limit temperatures by the end of the century to as close as possible to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, allowing for short-term overshoots and subsequent rebounds.

Despite the complications, we know that we are not yet past the 1.5°C threshold. The world has warmed by 1.2°C based on average temperatures over the past 10 years, which means we still have room to take action to maintain a safe and healthy climate.

What are the impacts?

We are already feeling the effects of climate damage from more frequent extreme weather events. Millions of people in Europe and around the world are facing the consequences of climate change in the form of extreme temperatures, heavy rains and floods. In Europe, we are experiencing record temperatures, extreme droughts and intense storms. The solution is to reduce climate pollution quickly and decisively, with the greatest efforts focused on this decade.

Is it too late?

The game is not over; the fight to reduce climate pollution continues. Every action we take now is crucial. After years of inaction, Europe is finally making progress on clean energy and industry, gradually reducing its dependence on coal, oil and gas. Governments at all levels have an opportunity to build on this progress and secure a cleaner and safer future for future generations of Europeans. (Co2AI)