Global temperatures in 2023 exceeded expectations and will record the warmest year on record, even exceeding 1.5°C in one of the main datasets. This warming continued into 2024, meaning that this year is also on track to potentially exceed 1.5°C in one or more datasets.

Exceeding 1.5 C in one or even two years is not the same as exceeding the 1.5 C limit under the Paris Agreement. The goal is generally considered to be long-term warming rather than annual temperatures, which include the short-term impact of natural climate fluctuations such as El Niño.

However, recent warming has led to renewed debate over whether the world could soon exceed the 1.5°C limit under the Paris Agreement – sooner than climate scientists and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had previously estimated. (ZEKE HAUSFATHER, carbonbrief. com)