A new analysis based on simple equations has reduced uncertainty about how clouds will affect future climate change. Clouds have two main effects on global temperatures — they cool the planet by reflecting sunlight and warm it by acting as an insulator for Earth's radiation. The effect of clouds is the largest area of uncertainty in global warming predictions.

In a new study, scientists from the University of Exeter and the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique in Paris have created a model that predicts how changes in the surface area of anvil clouds (storm clouds common in the tropics) will affect global warming.

By testing their model against observations of how clouds affect warming today, they confirmed its effectiveness, thereby reducing uncertainty in climate predictions. (University of Exeter, more at phys.org)