In the effort to meet the Paris Agreement and limit global warming to “well below 2°C”, the world faces a huge challenge: the global economy is decarbonising at least five times slower than necessary. In this context, draws attention to a phenomenon that could bring about radical acceleration: positive turning pointsThese tipping points represent the moments when low-carbon transitions become self-sustaining and difficult to reverse, thereby contributing to limiting the widespread and unjust damages caused by global warming and helping to achieve sustainability.

What is a positive breakeven point? The breakeven point is defined as the point beyond which self-sustaining change in the system occurs, leading to a significant (qualitative) change in the state of the system. Before the tipping point, there are balancing (negative) feedbacks that maintain the initial state of the system, but they gradually weaken. At the tipping point, reinforcing (positive) feedbacks take control, leading to accelerated change. This change initially accelerates, but slows down as the system approaches the new state, and the new state is often stabilized by new “locking” mechanisms.

We distinguish two types of positive tipping points in low-carbon transitions:

• "Flip towards" concerns the accelerated diffusion of low-carbon innovations (technologies, behaviours, business models).
• "Flip from" refers to the abandonment of existing fossil fuel-based systems. The two types are often temporally linked, with the spread of innovations contributing to the destabilization of old systems. Examples are Elimination of coal in the British energy sector after 2012, the advent of electric vehicles (EVs) on the Norwegian market around 2012 and global expansion of solar photovoltaics, which is expected to be the dominant energy source by 2050.

IPTiP Methodology: Identifying and Triggering Positive Breakthroughs The new “identification of positive tipping points” (IPTiP) methodology seeks to provide a framework for the credible identification of potential tipping points and the actions that can trigger them.

1. Is there potential for a positive tipping point?
   • Empirical approach: It examines whether the system or an analogous system has already reached a tipping point in the past or elsewhere. For example, the rapid decline of coal in the UK energy sector suggests potential in other countries as well, although local conditions such as in China or India need to be considered.
   • Process-oriented approach: A qualitative causal model of the system is created (e.g. using causal loop diagrams) to identify reinforcing and counterbalancing feedback loops. Reinforcing feedback loops include “learning by doing”, economies of scale, technological reinforcement and social contagion. Counterbalancing loops include, for example, “lock-in” to existing technologies. By combining these approaches, confidence in the potential for a tipping point is assessed.
2. Can the tipping point be quantified?
   • Early opportunity indicators: “Critical slowing down” (CSD) is being observed, a phenomenon where a system becomes less resilient and slower to recover from failures before a tipping point. UK internal combustion engine car market share data already shows CSD, suggesting an approaching tipping point.
   • Quantitative models: Models such as Lotka-Volterra equations, which describe the dynamics of competition between technologies, or agent-based models (ABM) are used to study the dynamics of the adoption of low-carbon innovations.
3. What factors most influence the tipping point? Key factors influencing innovation adoption include price (availability), performance (quality), attractiveness (symbolism), accessibility (comfort), information (abilities), complementarity a common benefits (e.g. for health or energy security). For example, the availability of charging stations significantly influences EV adoption. These factors may vary in importance depending on the specific case and geographical or cultural context.
4. What actions can most effectively bring the tipping point closer? Effective actions include political measures, actions civil society a private sector.
   • Policies: In the early stages of innovation, support for research and development, skills development and market creation are important. For breaking out of niche markets, deployment subsidies, purchase incentives and infrastructure supportRegulations and mandates, such as Zero-emission vehicle mandate (ZEV mandate) in the UK, can significantly accelerate the transition and push it to other markets.
   • Coordination: Collaboration between different actors (e.g. policymakers, businesses, investors, activists) can be particularly effective.

Challenges and just transition It is important to avoid over-optimism and oversimplification of the nature of tipping points. Not all sectors have the potential for a tipping point, and some innovations have failed or stalled after an initial acceleration (e.g. nuclear energy). The methodology should explicitly consider issues of equity and fairness throughout the process to ensure just transformation.

Overall, the goal is methodologies IPTiP to create a common framework that researchers can further refine and practitioners can apply, as action to identify and trigger positive tipping points is now urgent. JRi