The document identifies 36 major climate risks for Europe. These risks are classified into five categories: ecosystems, food, health, infrastructure and economy and finance. The document analyses each of these risks in detail in terms of severity, time horizon, policy readiness and risk responsibility.

Ecosystems:

• Increased risk of forest fires: This risk is exacerbated by a combination of longer dry spells, higher temperatures and changes in forest composition and structure. In 2017, fires in Portugal burned 250,000 hectares in two days and caused 51 deaths, partly due to drought and Cyclone Ophelia.
• Increased peatland degradation: Peatlands are important ecosystems that store large amounts of carbon. Climate change, such as drought and increased temperatures, can lead to their degradation and the release of stored carbon into the atmosphere.
• Changes in forest ecosystems: Climate change is leading to a shift in vegetation zones and a change in the species composition of forests. As a result, forests are becoming less resistant to pests and diseases.
• Loss of biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystems: Climate change threatens biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystems. Global warming of 1.5°C and 3°C may lead to phenological changes, shifts in species ranges, and an increased likelihood of local species extinction.
• Biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems: Climate change threatens biodiversity in freshwater ecosystems due to changes in water temperature, flow, and habitat availability.
• Biodiversity loss in marine ecosystems: Climate change is affecting marine ecosystems. Rising water temperatures and changes in water salinity can lead to biodiversity loss and damage to marine habitats.

Food:

• Reduction in crop yields: Extreme weather events such as droughts, heat waves and floods can lead to reduced crop yields. The paper states that the severity of crop losses caused by droughts and heat waves has tripled in Europe over the past five decades.
• Increased food prices: Reduced crop yields and disruptions to supply chains can lead to higher food prices, which can negatively impact food security. The paper notes that global warming could lead to higher coffee prices.
• Lack of water for agriculture: Droughts can lead to water shortages for irrigation, which threatens food production.
• Changes in marine ecosystems: Climate change is affecting marine ecosystems, which has implications for fisheries and aquaculture. Changes in water temperature, water acidity and food availability can lead to declines in fish and other marine organisms.
• Food security due to the impact of climate change outside Europe: Climate change outside Europe could affect food production and lead to higher food prices on world markets, which could negatively affect food security in Europe. The document states that in 2022-2023, food security is expected to deteriorate in countries such as Afghanistan, Ethiopia and Yemen due to climate change.
• Livestock production: Climate change can negatively impact livestock production due to heat stress, water and feed shortages, and increased risk of disease.

Health:

• Increased risk of heat stroke and heat stress: Higher temperatures and more frequent heat waves increase the risk of heatstroke and heat stress. This risk is particularly high in cities where the “heat island” effect occurs. In 2022, an extremely hot summer in Europe led to 60,000-70,000 premature deaths.
• Increased risk of cold-related mortality and morbidity: Although Europe is warming, cold waves still occur and can lead to an increased risk of mortality and morbidity, especially in vulnerable populations.
• Increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases: Climate change can worsen air quality and increase the risk of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.
• Increased risk of infectious diseases: Climate change can lead to the spread of infectious diseases transmitted by vectors such as mosquitoes and ticks. The document cites examples of diseases such as dengue fever, chikungunya, West Nile fever and Lyme disease.
• Increased risk of allergies: Climate change can extend the pollen season and worsen allergies.
• Increased risk of foodborne illness: Climate change may increase the risk of foodborne illness due to contamination of food and water with bacteria and other pathogens.
• Increased risk of mental illness: Extreme weather events and climate change can lead to an increased risk of mental illnesses such as post-traumatic stress disorder and depression.
• Increased mortality and morbidity due to extreme events: Extreme weather events such as floods, storms and heat waves can lead to increased mortality and morbidity. In 2021, floods in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands led to more than 200 deaths.

Infrastructure:

• Infrastructure damage due to extreme weather: Extreme weather events such as floods, storms, landslides and heat waves can damage infrastructure such as roads, bridges, buildings and power grids. The document cites examples of road damage due to high temperatures and damage to rail infrastructure.
• Damage to coastal infrastructure due to coastal erosion and sea level rise: Sea level rise and coastal erosion threaten coastal infrastructure such as ports, buildings and roads.
• Disruption of energy systems: Extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts and floods can disrupt energy systems. Heat waves can reduce the efficiency of electricity generation and increase the demand for energy for cooling, while droughts can affect hydroelectric power plants.
• Reduced water infrastructure capacity: Droughts and increased temperatures can lead to reduced water availability and reduced capacity of water infrastructure such as dams and water mains.
• Increased risk to transport infrastructure: Extreme weather events such as floods, storms, landslides and heat waves can disrupt transportation systems such as roads, railways and air transport.

Economy and Finance:

• Economic losses due to extreme weather and climate change: Extreme weather and climate change can lead to economic losses in sectors as diverse as agriculture, tourism, energy and insurance. The document states that economic damage caused by coastal flooding alone could exceed €1 trillion per year in the EU by the end of the century.
• Increased financial risks: Climate change increases financial risks for businesses, investors and insurers. The paper says climate shocks can affect government bonds and reduce the ability of banks to lend.
• Disruption of international supply chains: Extreme weather and climate change can disrupt international supply chains. This can lead to shortages of goods and services, price increases, and economic losses.
• Increased insurance costs: Insurance companies are facing rising costs due to climate change and extreme weather, which could lead to higher insurance prices for businesses and individuals.
• Increased adaptation costs: Adapting to climate change requires significant investments in infrastructure, technology and behavioral changes.
• Social unrest: Climate change and its impact on the economy and the environment can lead to social unrest and political instability.

The document emphasizes that these risks are interconnected and they can to cascadeFor example, drought can lead to reduced crop yields, which can increase food prices and cause social unrest.

The document also highlights uneven distribution climate risks and adaptive capacity within Europe. Southern Europe is identified as an area with highest level of risk a lowest adaptive capacityThe full document is available. here

 Spring