An international group led by scientists from Oregon State University noted in its annual report that the deterioration of the Earth's vital systems indicates that we are entering “a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis,” and stressed that “immediate and decisive action is needed.” The project, led by OSU’s William Ripple and former postdoctoral researcher Christopher Wolf, identifies areas where policy change is needed — energy, pollution, nature, food and the economy — in “The State of the Climate Report to 2024: Dangerous Times on Planet Earth,” published in the journal BioScience.

Ripple, a distinguished professor in the College of Forestry at Oregon State University, said: “Much of the very fabric of life on our planet is at risk. We are already facing a brutal climate shock that threatens all life on Earth in a way that humanity has never experienced before. The overexploitation of the planet’s resources, depleting more than the Earth can safely provide, has dragged our planet into climate conditions that are more dangerous than anything our prehistoric ancestors knew.”

Of the 35 planetary vital signs that scientists track annually to monitor climate change, 25 are at record extremes. The three hottest days on record were recorded in July 2024, and fossil fuel emissions are at historic highs, as are human and ruminant populations. The human population is increasing at a rate of about 200,000 people per day, while the number of ruminants, such as cattle, sheep and goats, is increasing by about 170,000 per day. Annual fossil fuel consumption rose by 1.5 % in 2023, mainly due to increases in coal (1.6 %) and oil (2.5 %).

Renewable energy use also increased in 2023, with solar and wind power generation increasing by 15 % compared to 2022. However, renewable energy use represents only a small fraction of fossil fuel consumption, and the recent growth in renewable energy is driven by increased demand rather than fossil fuel replacement. The report notes that annual forest cover loss globally has increased from 22.8 million hectares in 2022 to 28.3 million hectares in 2023, and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane are reaching record levels.

Wolf, now a research scientist at Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates (TERA) in Corvallis, emphasized, “The rate of methane emissions is accelerating, which is extremely concerning. Nitrous oxide, which is strong and persistent, is also at an all-time high.”

Other worrying points in the report include:

– The average surface temperature of the Earth has never been higher.

– Ocean acidity, heat content and average global ocean level are reaching record levels.

– The ice mass of Greenland, Antarctica and the average thickness of glaciers are at historic lows.

– 28 feedback loops have been identified that worsen climate change, such as thawing permafrost.

– It is estimated that 2,325 people in the United States could die from heat-related illnesses in 2023, an increase of 117,000 since 1999.

“Since our previous report was published in 2023, we have witnessed multiple climate disasters, including a series of heat waves in Asia that killed more than a thousand people and caused temperatures to reach 122 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of India,” Ripple said. “Climate change has already displaced millions of people, with the potential to displace hundreds of millions or even billions. This would likely lead to greater geopolitical instability or partial collapse of societies.”

Scientists aim to provide clear, evidence-based information that would motivate citizens, researchers and world leaders to take informed and bold action. Specifically, they recommend the rapid implementation of policies that would:

– They introduced a global price on carbon emissions, thereby limiting emissions by the rich and potentially financing further climate action.

– Improved energy efficiency and savings and replaced fossil fuels with low-carbon renewable energy.

– They have reduced greenhouse gas emissions, including short-lived pollutants such as methane.

– Protect and restore biodiversity-rich ecosystems that play a key role in carbon cycling and storage.

– They supported the transition to a plant-based diet.

– They promoted a sustainable ecological economy and significantly reduced excessive consumption and waste by the wealthy.

– Integrate climate change education into global curricula to strengthen awareness, literacy and action. (Co2AI)