As the European Union ramps up efforts to meet its targets under the Paris climate change agreement, the bloc's proposed Carbon Border Offset Mechanism (CBAM) offers the tantalizing promise of cleaner industry and reduced emissions both within and beyond its borders. By pricing the carbon dioxide emitted during the production of certain imports, the system aims to level the playing field between businesses in the EU and third countries and to prevent so-called "carbon leakage" - the movement of industries with high carbon emissions to countries with weaker environmental standards. A key aim of CBAM is to create "own resources" for the bloc: the EU expects the mechanism to raise around €10 billion ($11 billion) a year by the time it is fully implemented in 2030, earmarked to pay off the bloc's debt for post-pandemic recovery. Perhaps more importantly, CBAM will have global implications. While the mechanism could speed up the green transition by effectively exporting the EU's tough climate targets, it could also adversely affect developing economies, particularly in Africa. One of the main concerns is that CBAM, which officially begins its transition phase in October 2023 and will initially only cover cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen, could significantly increase the cost of exports to the EU. This would be particularly problematic for African economies, which already face some of the highest trade barriers in the world and often rely heavily on exports to fuel growth. David Luke, a professor at the London School of Economics who specializes in African trade policy, recently warned that the CBAM tax could reduce African exports to the bloc by almost 6%. More broadly, the tariff may have a disproportionate impact on countries with weaker economies and limited infrastructure. Insufficient capacity to meet the EU's strict carbon standards would put these countries at a competitive disadvantage and further widen the economic gap with the bloc. Analysis by the Center for Global Development found that Mozambique's GDP, for example, could plausibly fall by 1.6% as the country sent more than half of its aluminum exports to the EU in 2019.
How Europe's carbon border tax could help Africa
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