An international team of scientists has warned against relying on nature to provide direct "early warning" indicators of climate catastrophe, as new mathematical modelling reveals fascinating new aspects of the complexity of climate dynamics, suggesting the climate system could be more unpredictable than previously thought.

By modelling the Atlantic Meridian Circulation, one of the major ocean current systems, a team including mathematicians from the University of Leicester have found that the stability of the system is much more complex than the simple “on-off” states previously thought. Transitions between these states can lead to large changes in regional climate in the North Atlantic region, but are far from the massive impacts of transitions between qualitatively different states. (University of Leicester, more at phys.org)