Heat and extreme climate records from 2023 shocked scientists. So where are we headed? Given current trends, the world is moving closer to 2°C of warming and the Paris climate goal of limiting warming to 1.5-2°C.

Climate model scenarios similar to current policies assume warming of 2°C by 2050; if James Hansen is right (see Part 1) and warming accelerates sharply, it could be a decade sooner. These results will be driven by a high energy imbalance, persistently high emissions, accelerating ocean heat accumulation, and a decline in short-term aerosol cooling.

This is the second article in a two-part series. Read the first part  here .

(David Spratt, more at www.resilience.org )