Climate change is relentlessly increasing the frequency and severity of extreme heat events, which are already the leading cause of weather-related mortality. In the search for solutions, one of the most effective adaptation tools is often forgotten: are accurate weather forecasts. The latest research shows that Improving short-term temperature forecasts plays a critical role in reducing mortality and could save thousands of lives annually in the future..

The deadly consequences of inaccurate predictions

When people know that extreme weather is approaching, they can quickly adjust their daily plans and take necessary precautions. An extensive analysis of historical data on mortality, temperatures, and daily forecasts in the US revealed that Accurate forecasts are already significantly reducing mortality, primarily during warm and hot days. Conversely, forecast errors can be extremely dangerous. If a forecast error occurs on days when the average daily temperature exceeds 20 °C, mortality increases rapidly.

Interestingly, the impact of meteorologists' errors is highly nonlinear. During extreme heat, forecasts that predicted colder weather than actually occurred are particularly deadly to the human body, while forecasts that were too warm do not significantly affect mortality on these days. More accurate forecasts do not in themselves constitute physical protection from heat, but they are absolutely necessary because they facilitate the daily adaptation decisions of the general population, emergency services, or people working outdoors..

The future of meteorology and the importance of data

The good news is that experts expect the quality of forecasts to continue to improve. Already between 2005 and 2023, the accuracy of one-day temperature forecasts has improved by a fantastic 34 %. A large survey of professional forecasters suggests that by 2100, the error rate of predictions could be halved compared to today.

This expected progress is largely driven by the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, as well as improvements in numerical models and computing technology. However, experts are also raising a warning finger. A reduction in primary data collection and a lack of high-quality Earth observations could lead to a dramatic deterioration in forecast accuracy.. Artificial intelligence models are completely dependent on accurate input data. Another serious limiting factor in the coming years will be understaffing and a shortage of highly qualified meteorologists.

Thousands of lives saved and billions in savings

The importance of accurate forecasts is growing dramatically as the planet warms. It is assumed that if forecast accuracy improves in line with central expert projections, by 2100, annual heat-related mortality would be reduced by 18 %. In the more optimistic case of accelerated technological development, this decrease could be as much as 25 %. In absolute terms, this means thousands of human lives saved every year. In the extreme warming scenario (SSP5-8.5), more accurate predictions would prevent 1,900 more deaths on hot days alone compared to the situation if the climate did not change.

This benefit is of enormous importance not only for public health but also for the economy. If we were to express the lives saved in monetary terms within the framework of government analyses, achieving better forecast accuracy is worth more than $30 billion per year by the end of this century. Conversely, if we don’t invest in these innovations, it will cost us tens of billions of dollars a year in unnecessary deaths. These findings even change the way we calculate the societal costs of carbon emissions in the future. The benefits of better forecasts also complement other forms of adaptation, such as increasing the use of air conditioning in homes.

The conclusion is clear: timely and accurate information is our strongest shield. Continued public funding and investment in weather observations, computing power and expert training are critically important tools for addressing future climate challenges.. JRi&CO2AI