In May 2021, the International Energy Agency (IEA) presented its groundbreaking report, "Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector", which outlined a concrete path for the global energy sector to achieve limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The updated Net Zero Emissions Scenario by 2050 (NZE Scenario) is a comprehensive and data-driven plan that takes into account the latest developments in technology, markets and policies. It highlights that global cooperation and a differentiated approach are key to its success, where advanced economies will take the lead and reach zero emissions sooner.

Main pillars for achieving net zero emissions by 2050:

The IEA identifies four key pillars for transforming the energy sector:

1. Large-scale deployment of clean energy technologies and measures to reduce demand: This includes the massive expansion of renewable energy sources and significant improvements in energy efficiency.
2. A sequential transition that ensures energy security: Policies must be strong and coordinated to minimize market volatility and limit the creation of fossil fuel “stranded assets.”
3. Fair and effective global cooperation: Stronger cooperation is needed instead of fragmentation, with advanced economies reaching net zero emissions earlier to give emerging economies more time.
4. Innovations: They are essential, especially in sectors with hard-to-remove emissions, such as heavy industry and long-distance transport, where low-carbon technologies are not yet readily available or ripe for widespread deployment.

In addition, the IEA highlights significant reduction in CO2 and methane emissions, which is essential to maintain the 1.5°C target.

Key technologies and measures in the short term (until 2030):

To achieve significant emission reductions by 2030, the IEA focuses on technologies and measures that are already available, scalable and cost-effective:

• Triple global renewable capacity to 11,000 gigawatts (GW). Solar photovoltaic (PV) panels and wind energy make up the largest share of emissions reductions by 2030, with solar PV capacity increasing fivefold and wind power becoming the second largest source of electricity. Speeding up permitting processes and grid connections is key.
• Doubling the annual rate of improvement in energy performanceThis will be achieved through a shift to more efficient fuels (electrification), improvements in the technical efficiency of equipment and more efficient use of energy and materials, including behavioural changes.
• Accelerating end-use electrification. Electric vehicles (EV) a heat pumps are key technologies. Electric vehicle sales should account for two-thirds of new car sales by 2030, while heat pump sales need to grow by almost 20% per year. Electrification delivers almost a fifth of the emissions reductions by 2030.
• Reducing methane emissions from the energy sector by 75 % by 2030It is one of the least costly opportunities to limit global warming, requiring cumulative spending of about $75 billion by 2030, which is just 2.1% of the oil and gas industry's net revenue in 2022.
• No new permits for unsafe coal-fired power plants.
• Expansion of electricity transmission and distribution networks by approximately 2 million kilometers per year, with annual investments reaching approximately USD 680 billion by 2030.
• Ensuring universal access to modern forms of energy for all by 2030.

Key technologies and measures in the long term (after 2030 towards 2050):

After 2030, technologies that are currently in development or require a longer time for mass deployment contribute to achieving net zero emissions, and approximately 35 % contribute to reducing emissions by 2050.

• Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is critical for achieving net zero emissions, especially in sectors such as cement or synthetic kerosene production, and for removing CO2 from the atmosphere. Between 2030 and 2050, it contributes, together with hydrogen, to one fifth of all emission reductions. Although the project plan suggests an eightfold expansion of capacity by 2030 (to 400 Mt CO2), further acceleration and overcoming obstacles such as lack of infrastructure and long project implementation times are needed to achieve the NZE scenario targets (1 Gt/year).
• Hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels are key to reducing emissions in heavy industry (e.g. steel, chemicals) and long-distance transport (aviation and maritime). The demand for low-carbon hydrogen is growing rapidly, and by 2050, 80 % of low-carbon hydrogen will be produced from residues that do not compete with food production.
• Nuclear energy is set to more than double its capacity from 417 GW in 2022 to 916 GW in 2050 in the NZE scenario, reflecting growing political support. China is a leader in expanding nuclear power.
• Atmospheric CO2 removal using technologies such as bioenergy with CCUS (BECCS) and direct air CO2 capture with storage (DACS) will begin to scale up rapidly, achieving removal of around 1.7 Gt CO2 by 2050.
• Electricity as the "new oil": By 2050, electricity will provide 53 % of total final energy consumption. This requires massive growth in battery energy storage, demand management, and expanded and modernized grids.
• Phasing out unsustainable fossil fuels: Unmanaged coal will be completely phased out by 2040. Demand for oil and gas is falling significantly, meaning that no new long-term oil and gas projects are needed after 2023.

Infrastructure and innovation are vital:

The implementation of the NZE scenario requires massive investments in new, smarter and transformed infrastructure networks, such as power grids, CO2 pipelines, and hydrogen infrastructure. In addition, accelerated innovation in early-stage clean energy technologies is vital to achieving net-zero emissions goals. In 2022, government spending on energy research and development reached nearly $44 billion, of which more than $80 trillion was allocated to clean energy, with China being the largest investor in the field.

Although the path to net zero emissions by 2050 has become narrower, the IEA believes it is still achievable. The report clearly shows that There is no "slow" or "without international cooperation" path to limiting warming to 1.5°C.If political ambition is not increased before 2030, limiting the increase in global average temperature to 1.5°C will become much more difficult and will require significantly more CO2 removal from the atmosphere after 2050, at an additional annual cost of USD 1.3 trillion. It is essential that all countries step up their efforts and work together to avoid irreversible impacts of climate change. JRi