Methane (CH4) is second largest contributor to climate change, responsible for about 30 % of global warming. Although most attention is focused on CO2, methane has a much shorter lifetime in the atmosphere. Nevertheless, its Global warming potential (GWP) 80 times higher than CO2 for the first 20 years, which implies a significant short-term impact on temperature increases. This suggests that effective mitigation of methane emissions can quickly slow down global temperature rise, which cannot be achieved by reducing CO2 emissions alone. Methane is also a precursor to dangerous air pollutants such as ground-level ozone, responsible for around one million premature deaths per year. Awareness of the importance of methane for climate change mitigation is growing, especially after the COP26 and COP28 conferences, where many countries committed to reducing it.

Global trends and key emission sources

Global methane emissions have been rising for decades, with an average annual growth rate of 1.22 % since 2001, with the growth rate accelerating to 2.0 % per year since 2002. After 2015, there was methane emissions increase again, especially in Asia and rapidly developing countries, driven by economic and population growth. Asia and the Pacific are the main contributors to the increase, while developed countries saw a decrease in both production-based (PBE) and consumption-based (CBE) emissions. In 2023, it was dominated by agriculture and food production in global methane emissions (47 %), followed by waste management (17 %), coal and electricity (14 %), and oil and gas (13 %). The sectoral distribution of emissions varies: China and Indonesia dominate emissions from coal and electricity, Russia and Iran from oil and gas, and India and Brazil from agriculture.

Decoupling emissions from economic growth and the role of trade

Only developed countries have achieved strong separation emissions (both PBE and CBE) from economic growth, meaning emissions decline as GDP grows. This success may be partly due to by moving emission-intensive industries to less developed regions (by outsourcing). Global trade is responsible for approximately 30 % of total methane emissions. Trade patterns are changing: South-South trade has increased significantly, reflecting their greater involvement in global supply chains and growing share of imported goods. This increases the complexity of managing methane emissions.

Mitigation strategies and conclusion

A key factor in reducing methane emissions is reduction of emission coefficient thanks to improved energy efficiency and cleaner production technologies. In energy sector this includes advanced leak detection technologies, transitioning to clean energy, and improving ventilation in mines. In agriculture improving feed mixtures for ruminants, obtaining biogas from manure and optimizing rice cultivation are effective. In waste management Better landfill management (sealing, methane recovery), support for composting and modernisation of waste water treatment will help. In addition, it is also important demand-side strategies, such as encouraging the consumption of less red meat. Given the short lifetime of methane in the atmosphere (7-12 years), they have today's efforts have an immediate impact on global warmingIt is crucial to focus on mitigating methane emissions in developing countries to prevent them from rapidly increasing in the future. JRi

The entire study was published in the journal Nature Communications .