New database The GVI Projections Database presents projections of socioeconomic vulnerability for almost all countries in the world between 2020 and 2100This database is a valuable resource for monitoring human components of vulnerability.vulnerability to climate change, natural disasters and other shocks. It assesses how societies and geographical areas are affected by external stressors and their ability to respond to them. The database works with three Common Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): the “green path” (SSP1), the “middle path” (SSP2) and the “hard path” (SSP3) scenarios.

What is the GDL Vulnerability Index (GVI)?

The GDL Vulnerability Index (GVI) is composite index, which summarizes seven main socioeconomic dimensions of vulnerability into a single number using an additive formula. The GVI operationalizes the vulnerability pillar of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) risk framework, integrating socioeconomic vulnerability with climate hazards and exposure. The GVI is designed to focus exclusively on the human and societal aspects of vulnerability.

The seven key thematic areas covered by the GVI include:

• Economy: The GDP per capita rate and poverty (the share of the population below the threshold of $3.65 per day) reflect the ability of economic actors to prepare for and cope with climate events.
• Education: The average number of years of schooling of the adult population (25+ years) indicates the level of preparedness and ability to respond to disasters.
• Health: Life expectancy at birth serves as an indicator of quality of life and healthcare, which affects the vulnerability of a population.
• Gender: The Gender Development Index (GDI) measures gender inequalities that can amplify the vulnerability of women and girls in the context of climate change.
• Infrastructure: Access to clean drinking water, electricity and mobile phones is crucial for preparedness and organization of crisis responses.
• Public administration: Rated by the World Bank's Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), which reflect the quality of governance and the ability to implement adaptive strategies.
• Demographics: Age structure (dependency rate) and urbanization (proportion of population in cities) affect biological sensitivity and resource availability in case of emergency.

The GVI differs from other established indices (such as ND-GAIN or INFORM) in its flexibility and data-driven approach, which is less dependent on expert judgment. Thanks to the uniform formula, GVI scores are comparable across regions and over time. Validation has shown high correlations with these more sophisticated indices, confirming its reliability.

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

The GVI projections are developed along three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which are narratives describing probable socioeconomic futures and the associated challenges for climate change adaptation and mitigation.

• SSP1 ("green path"): A sustainable development scenario, characterized by improving environmental conditions, increasing investments in education and health, decreasing inequality, and a focus on human well-being.
• SSP2 ("middle way"): It represents a continuation of historical patterns in development, with uneven economic growth and slow progress towards sustainable development goals.
• SSP3 ("rough road"): A scenario with high challenges for adaptation and mitigation. Countries focus on national interests, leading to limited international cooperation, declining investment, and worsening inequalities.

Methodology and construction of the GVI Projections database

The baseline data for the GVI projections are 2020 values. Projections for 2025–2100 are derived from multiple SSP databases. For indicators such as GDP per capita, life expectancy, dependency ratio and urbanization, a two-step adjustment procedure was used to harmonize World Bank/UNDP data with SSP projections. For poverty, governance and gender index, regression prediction models were developed to translate definitions between databases. Indicators such as access to electricity and mobile phones were projected assuming global saturation at different time frames for each SSP. The indicator “access to safely managed drinking water services” was omitted from the projections, as its availability is more directly linked to climate change rather than purely socio-economic factors. The final GVI projections are therefore based on ten indicators.

Key findings and projections

GVI projections show significant reduction in socio-economic vulnerability under the SSP1 scenario over the 21st century, with the greatest improvement in countries with high vulnerability. A slower but still significant reduction is expected under SSP2, while SSP3 shows very little improvement, with large differences in GVI across countries remaining. Regional patterns of vulnerability persist, with North America, Western and Northern Europe, and Australia and New Zealand showing the lowest GVI values, while regions in Africa, South Asia, and Pacific Island States have the highest projected values. Under SSP1, highly vulnerable countries could achieve socioeconomic conditions comparable to today’s low-vulnerability countries.

Data verification and availability

The GVI Projections database is publicly available as a zip archive on the Figshare repository and on the Global Data Lab website. Robustness tests have shown high stability of GVI even when removing one or two of the underlying indicators, with correlations exceeding 0.94. This confirms that the human aspects of development are highly correlated with each other. Comparison with the factor analysis method also showed that both methods lead to almost identical results. These findings strengthen confidence in the applicability of the GVI for long-term projections. JRi

Findings, published in the magazine Scientific Data