The carbon credit market has struggled with a crisis of confidence in recent years – revelations about the poor quality of projects, fraud investigations and uncritical marketing claims have caused a massive drop in interest.However, the latest report from GlobalData predicts that Corporate demand for high-quality carbon credits will soon resumeThis is being driven by growing interest in projects with biochar – a carbon material obtained by burning biomass, which has a high permanent capacity to retain carbon in the soil.(businessgreen.com)

Rapid growth and long-term challenges

According to a report by Oliver Wyman, the market for carbon credits aimed at removing CO₂ could grow from $2.7 billion in 2023 to as much as $100 billion annually by 2030–2035. However, this will only be possible if barriers such as the lack of standardization of credits and their integration into corporate clean growth strategies are addressed.(Reuters)

Investment in carbon credit projects reached $42 billion between 2013 and 2023. Half of this amount was spent in the recent past (2021–2023), mainly in Asia, the Americas and sub-Saharan Africa. Europe, the Middle East and North Africa are lagging behind in this area.

Bio-interventions in soil and the forest sector: a new wave of opportunities

Market with soil carbon credits (soil carbon credits) is starting to gain momentum. Startups like Agreena are helping farmers implement regenerative agriculture and capitalize on the CO₂ their soils capture. This market is currently worth hundreds of millions of dollars and is estimated to reach billions in sales by 2030–2035.The Guardian)

Forecasts also indicate a significant increase in demand for natural solutions, especially afforestation. Forests can provide more than a third of the necessary CO₂ reductions by 2030 through their ecosystem services, yet they receive less than 3% of global climate finance.

The need for reform and transparency

The social capital of the market is weakened. Until 87 % of issued credits may not provide real climate benefit, the BCG analysis warns, highlighting the urgent need for reform and a shift towards credits with verifiable impacts. Added to this are warnings from the auditing sector – academic studies point to the failure of independent verifiers to play their role as guarantors of the quality of carbon offsets.

Space for ethical market growth

While the carbon credit market faces credibility issues, clear signs of its revival are visible. Key will be:

• invest in verifiable natural solutions (afforestation, soil carbonization),
• ensure standardization and thorough verification (MRV mechanisms),
• and restore trust through transparency and quality.

If current weaknesses can be overcome, the carbon credit market can fulfill its role as an effective financial instrument for achieving climate goals – with significant growth potential and real impact. JRi