In a time of global environmental change driven by urbanization and land use change, humans are becoming increasingly disconnected from nature. This disconnection, known as the “extinction of experience,” is experience), is recognized by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) as a causal factor in environmental crises, including biodiversity loss and climate changeDecreasing opportunities for individuals to experience nature and a diminishing affinity for it creates a cycle that weakens the human relationship with nature.

New study 2025, which uses an innovative hybrid agent-based model (ABM), examined how urbanization, opportunities for engagement with nature, orientation to nature, and intergenerational transmission have shaped connections with nature over time. The model simulated historical trends from 1800 to 2020 and predicted the future out to 2125.

Historical decline and its main causes

The ABM model confirmed a significant decline in connection with nature since 1800, which closely corresponded with historical data on urbanization, which increased from 7.3 % since 1810 to 82.7 % in 2020. This decline is particularly concerning, as connection with nature is an important driver of pro-environmental behavior and human well-being.

The key finding of the study is that dominant driver of the long-term decline connection with nature was intergenerational transmission. Parents’ level of connection to nature has a significant impact on their children’s connection to nature, with low levels in parents in urbanized environments leading to even lower levels in children. This creates systemic inertia and a lag effect, where psychological and behavioral disconnection from nature persists across generations, slowing any recovery. While the mechanism of “experiential extinction” over the lifetime of an individual (i.e., the influence of individual experiences with nature) also influences connection to nature, its impact is marginal compared to intergenerational transmission.

Predictions and the challenge of transformation

The model’s projections up to 2125 are alarming: even with transformative interventions such as dramatic urban greening and enhanced engagement with nature, they suggest a continued disconnection from nature until 2050. This highlights "locked risks" for environmental stewardship and suggests that humanity may have crossed a potential tipping point in its disconnection from nature.

The study identified three clusters of future trajectories:

• Continuing decline: Interventions aimed only at increasing attention to nature or smaller increases in access to nature (50 % and 100 %) were not sufficient to reverse the decline.
• Stabilization: It included scenarios with interventions targeting children, as well as a massive 1000 % increase in access to nature alone, or in combination with a 300 % increase in attention to nature, which halted the decline but did not cause a reversal.
• Transformative change: The most promising scenario occurs when 1000 % increasing access to nature implemented along with 30 % increasing connection with nature in children (e.g. through school-based programs and parental involvement). This combination of environmental restoration and enhanced intergenerational transmission leads to a substantial and self-sustaining increase in connection with nature after 2050.

The Way Forward: Integrated Solutions for Sustainability

The results highlight that disconnection from nature is a systemic phenomenon, deeply rooted in long-term demographic and environmental changes. Therefore, it is essential permanent, systemic policies that integrate connections with nature into urban planning and education.

IPBES considers strengthening connections with nature as a key strategy for achieving biodiversity vision by 2050 and for the transformative change needed to address environmental crises. The study's recommendations include:

• Strengthening intergenerational transmission: Through parent involvement programs and integrated educational programs in schools.
• Transformative urban greening and access to nature: A dramatic increase in access to nature is needed, not just a small increase. The model suggests that tenfold increase in opportunities to spend time in nature could be achievable, for example, by spending 45 minutes a day in green spaces.
• Implementation of adaptive control: Flexible and collaborative approaches that incorporate social learning and stimulate adaptive responses to nature loss.
• Monitoring and evaluation: Expanding national and local monitoring systems to connect with nature to inform policy.

These findings confirm that the human relationship with nature is characterized by nonlinear dynamics, thresholds and feedback loops. Only integrated and coordinated efforts at the level of the whole of society can reverse the trend of disconnection and ensure sustainable, thriving ecosystems, which are essential for addressing global environmental change, including climate change. JRi