In order to stopped increasing greenhouse gas emissions annually, must be achieved absolute decoupling of emissions from economic growth — i.e. GDP can grow, but total emissions must fall or remain the same. Below I bring analysis based on the decomposition of emission growth through the so-called Kaya Identity, with emphasis on EU and global average.

Why is every climate conference about GDP, emissions, and "green growth"?

At a time when the planet faces increasing manifestations of the climate crisis, we often hear two seemingly contradictory demands:

• We need to reduce greenhouse gas emissionsto slow down warming.
• We need to continue economic growthso that people have jobs, states have income, and companies have innovation.

But… is it possible to have both?

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🔥 Climate goals: what does the science say?

The goal of the Paris Agreement is clear: keep global warming below 1.5°C, a maximum of 2 °C compared to the pre-industrial era. To achieve this, according to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), we must:

• reduce global CO₂ emissions by 43 % by 2030 (compared to 2019),
• to reach zero emissions by 2050.

This means: Every year, CO₂ emissions must fall by approximately 7–10 %.

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📈 Problem: Emissions are still rising

The world economy is growing – on average over the last decade about 3 % per year.
But at the same time they are also growing greenhouse gas emissions – in 2023 they were the highest in history.

So:
More production, more consumption = more emissions.
If we want to continue growing, something fundamentally has to change.

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💡 Can GDP grow but emissions decrease?

Theoretically yes. That's what they call it. absolute decoupling of growth from emissionsThis means that the economy is growing, but CO₂ emissions are not – or are even falling.

This can only be achieved if:

• we consume less energy per unit of economic output (so-called energy efficiency),
• and we produce that energy from cleaner sources (renewable resources, excluding coal, oil and gas).

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🇪🇺 How is the European Union doing?

The EU is one of the few regions where the economy is already growing and emissions are falling.
For example:

• EU GDP grew by more than 60% between 1990 and 2023,
• Emissions fell by over 30% over the same period.

This means that the EU is already absolute decoupling of growth from emissions – thanks to strict regulations, renewable resources and changes in the industry.

BUT:
➡️ This pace is not enough to meet the 1.5°C target.
And what's more - the rest of the world is growing faster and less "cleanly" so far.

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🌍 What about the rest of the world?

In the world it is more complicated:

• Global GDP is growing by 3.1% per year,
• But technological changes only reduce emissions by 1.5 % per year.

This means:
➡️ Emissions are still growing by about 1.5 % per year.

To stop this, the world would have to:

• Either slow down economic growth in half (which would have social consequences),
• Or massively accelerate the transition to renewables and energy savings.

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📉 Specific numbers: what would we have to achieve?

Scenario	Annual GDP growth	Necessary emission reduction per unit of GDP
Current status	+3 %	only –1.5 % per year → emissions are still rising
Goal: no growth in emissions	+3 %	we need to reduce emissions by –3 % per year
Target: 1.5°C	+3 %	we need to reduce emissions by –7 to –10 % per year

➡️ This can only be done with a quick transition to clean energy, green technologies, change in consumption and behavior.

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🧭 What does this mean for us?

Economic growth is not a problem in itself.
The problem is if it grows in a way that increases emissions.

If we want:

• reduce emissions,
• achieve climate goals,
• and at the same time live with dignity,

we need:

• investments in renewable energy,
• green infrastructure,
• lower consumption of disposable products,
• and fair distribution of resources.

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🟢 Conclusion: is "green growth" real?

Yes – but only under very strict conditions:

✅ When growth does not increase the consumption of coal, oil and gas.
✅ When economic activity relies on low-carbon technologies.
✅ When profit is not superior to long-term sustainability.

Green growth is possible – but not automatic. Needs planning, political courage and social change.

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The article was prepared by our CO2AI, JRi