A fictional view of the future that becomes reality. The year 2040 brings the fulfillment of the worst predictions - the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, the cessation of ocean circulation, and the death of the Amazon rainforest.

Bratislava, April 12, 2040 – Twenty years after the start of major climate protests, public debate has been dominated by hopelessness rather than determination, and the year 2040 marks a point when reality has completely spiraled out of control. Scientists from all corners of the world have warned that the continued accumulation of greenhouse gases threatens new, often irreversible changes – so-called climate turning points. Chaotic global politics have proven to be a stumbling block – the Carbon Brief portal, for example, warned that the Earth is on a “catastrophic trajectory” without adequate global management of such threats. The latest report warned that five major tipping points are already “on the verge of being exceeded” and three more could be triggered if global warming exceeds +1.5 °C.

Shock from the North: The Greenland ice sheet, once considered one of the most stable components of the climate, has begun to disintegrate. According to satellite data, Greenland is already a “major contributor” to global sea level rise – it has lost more than 5.1 trillion tonnes of ice in the past two decades alone (which would cover the entire US with about half a metre of water). Scientists have estimated that the complete melting of the entire ice sheet would raise sea levels by about 7.2 metres, with just 1.5°C of warming triggering an irreversible process of runoff. The subsequent spread of tidal waves and storm surges across coastal areas – including historic metropolises – has displaced millions of people and triggered a crisis in drinking water and agricultural production.

The Atlantic as a machine stopped working: The Atlantic Ocean Circulation (AMOC) is being shaken to its core. Scientists warn that the massive influx of freshwater from melting Greenland is significantly weakening this oceanic “conveyor” – reportedly by about 15 % over the past 50 years. The latest studies warn that the circulation may even “collapse around mid-century”, bringing a return to conditions from the old ice age. According to the IPCC, a slowdown in the AMOC would have serious global impacts: precipitation in the Sahel would drop significantly, the monsoon in Asia would weaken, and winters in Europe would be characterized by strong storms and sharp fluctuations. Such a climate shock has already led to the outbreak of widespread droughts in southern Europe and destabilized local agriculture and transport across the old continent.

The green lungs of the forest are collapsing: The Amazon rainforest – known as the “lungs of the Earth” – is on the verge of death. The rainforest used to produce about half of its rainfall through its own water recycling, but long-term extreme droughts have broken this mechanism. In the past decade, the Amazon rainforest has experienced three “once-in-a-century” droughts, which, combined with massive deforestation, have caused widespread die-off. As a result, the Amazon rainforest has ceased to function as a net carbon sink and has become almost globally net source greenhouse gases. Scientists warn that if this process is not slowed down, the rainforest could turn into a vast savanna.

Another shock came in close conjunction with events in the Arctic. Scientists point to a chain of linked events: the massive breakup of the Greenland ice sheet released vast amounts of freshwater into the Atlantic, slowing the AMOC circulation and strengthening El Niño. These changes propagated over tropical America, dramatically altering rainfall patterns—ultimately contributing to the catastrophic forest die-off.

Consequences for humanity: The impacts of these climate disasters have touched all areas of life. According to the report, overcoming climate tipping points could lead to “catastrophic” consequences, including an increase in violent conflict, mass migration and economic chaos. Entire regions suffered from water and food shortages, cities struggled with an influx of refugees and the traditional order was rapidly crumbling. Social tensions have increased – support for radical political forces has grown dramatically and institutions that previously adorned civilized states have collapsed. Each subsequent manifestation of the climate disaster has also drained resources to address its causes, deepening a vicious cycle – long predicted in expert circles.

Consequences of human failure: At the end of the day, it turned out that this development was preceded by decades of human inaction. Generations of scientists have been shouting the alarm about climate change, but their warnings have long gone unheeded – the latest analysis reminds us that for at least the last 60 years, such alarming warnings have been repeatedly ignored. Politicians responded with superficial promises (for example, at UN conferences), but with each subsequent COP, emissions continued to grow and society’s lifestyle remained unchanged. Even numerous protests by young people (movements such as Fridays for Future) and civic engagement have left only slow scratches on today’s structures – far too late to slow down the increasing pace of change.

As a British climatologist concludes the new reality, “we have practically run out of time for gradual solutions”. Therefore, after the results of COP39 and the collapse of climate systems, it is obvious that the classic “business as usual” approach is a thing of the past. Although the world is trying to survive in emergency mode (new flood barriers are being built, migration quotas are being expanded, emergency laws are being adopted), this is a fight against time. Many questions remain unanswered – in particular, whether humans can still defend the remnants of natural systems and prepare the Earth for the next inevitable change. JRi