This year marks the 10th anniversary of the adoption of the Paris Agreement (PA) on climate, a key international pact that aimed to limit global warming and build a climate-resilient future. The new work study by IDDRI (Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations) assesses its impact over the past decade and outlines a vision for future climate action. Although the PA has enabled unprecedented collective progress, the results are still insufficient, with structural transformation incomplete and uneven.

The IDDRI analysis is based on four key pillars that underpinned the design of the Paris Agreement and were intended to enable the achievement of its overall objective (set out in Article 2):

• Ensuring universal action: The agreement was designed to engage all states and actors in a collective and cooperative effort. It is characterized by a shift from the strict division between developed and developing countries that characterized the Kyoto Protocol to a more nuanced “self-differentiation” through flexibility and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR-RC).
• Creating a vision for the new economy: The PA embodies a vision of a society and economy based on a decarbonized world, emphasizing a just and prosperous future for all in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication.
• Setting long-term direction for all actors: The agreement aims to collectively limit warming to 1.5°C by 2100, increase adaptation and build a resilient future, which is to be enabled by aligning financial flows globally.
• Extending climate goals and measures to society: The PA recognizes the cross-sectoral, cross-policy and economy-wide nature of climate action, which must permeate the national level and involve a wide range of actors beyond states.

Progress and ongoing challenges:

Pillar 1: Ensuring universal action The Paris Agreement has almost reached universal participation, having been ratified by 194 parties, and has proven resilient to withdrawals (with the exception of the US, which withdrew twice). It is also visible very good level of compliance with procedural obligations, such as the submission of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Transparency Reports (BTRs). Thanks to the PA, the projected temperature increase has been reduced from 4°C to 2.1-2.8°C. However, there are concerns about a slight deterioration in the timely submission of documents and there is a persistent gap in ambition, while full implementation of current NDCs would lead to a warming of 2.6°C. In addition, implementation of commitments into domestic policies is insufficient and financial support to developing countries falls short of expectations and their "fair share."

Pillar 2: Creating a vision for the new economy The transformation agenda is firmly anchored in discourse, with science and policy actors increasingly linking climate action to broader development goals and equity. There has been significant acceleration of the deployment of renewable energy sources and electric mobility, with their costs falling more than expected. However the new economy is more likely to join the fossil economyrather than fully replacing it. There is continued resistance from interest groups and social injustice and inequalities in access to the benefits of the transformation remain unresolved. Progress in energy efficiency is slower.

Pillar 3: Setting long-term direction The PA has successfully set a clear long-term direction for climate action, especially in the area of mitigation, with by the almost universal adoption of carbon neutrality goals (107 countries covering 82.3 % of global emissions). The ratchet-up mechanism (NDCs cycle) and the Global Stocktaking (GST) have proven their value in increasing climate ambition. Nevertheless, there remains mismatch between long-term goals and required short-term measuresThere is no clear and operational long-term vision for adaptation, and reconciliation of financial flows with climate objectives (Article 2.1c of the PA) is still unclear and insufficiently operationalized.

Pillar 4: Extending climate goals and measures into society Paris Agreement successful expanded climate goals beyond state actors, involved subnational levels (cities, regions), the business and financial sector, civil society and international organisations. It is also notable increase in climate litigation since 2015, which use PA commitments as a basis for challenges to government and corporate policies. However, challenges remain regarding integrity and reversibility of non-state actor commitments (e.g. greenwashing) and the fragility of voluntary commitments financial sector (banks leaving alliances). Fragmentation of efforts and lack of orchestration between different actors represent a clear weakness in the international climate architecture.

The Paris Agreement remains relevant and functional framework, but its effectiveness in implementation is strongly dependent on the external context. Although significant collective progress has been made, transformations on the ground are not happening fast enough, meaning that the time window to meet the PA and SDGs is rapidly closing. Targeted improvements in governance are needed to strengthen the agreement, including strengthening the diffusion of signals, improving the ambition mechanism, strengthening national conditions and better differentiation of responsibilities. Spring