Global climate patterns in 2023 and 2024 created conditions for severe drought impacts around the world that persist into 2025. These years were, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) two of the warmest years in global record history, with July 22, 2024 even being recorded as the warmest day on Earth. These high temperatures, combined with a lack of precipitation, had widespread consequences in 2023 and 2024, including water shortages, low food supplies, and energy allocations.

Climate change hotspots and their vulnerability

A message identifies areas that are considered “climate change hotspots.” A hotspot can be a place where the climate is particularly sensitive to global climate change, or a place where the impacts of climate change are particularly severe for the environment or human activities. Regions identified in this way include southern and eastern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Amazon basin, Panama, Mexico, and Southeast Asia.

These areas are very vulnerable for various reasons:

• Mediterranean is warming twice as fast as the global average, and temperatures are expected to increase by 2–3°C by 2050 and 3–5°C by 2100. Water availability is expected to decrease by 2–15 % for every 2°C of warming.
• Turkey It is semi-desert and 88% of its territory is threatened by desertification. By the end of the 21st century, precipitation is expected to decrease by 30% and temperatures to increase.
• Morocco It is expected to become more arid in the 21st century, with precipitation falling by up to 65 % in the High Atlas basin by 2100.
• Spain may see a decrease in precipitation of 14–20 % by 2050 compared to the 2000–2022 average, which would change its climate to a warm steppe.
• IN The Amazon rainforest Up to 47 million hectares of its land area is expected to be at risk from drought and forest fires by 2050. Deforestation and drought reinforce each other in a positive feedback loop.
• Southeast Asia It is also one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change, with temperatures expected to rise and precipitation to decrease.

The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The 2023–2024 drought was influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of ENSO that have significant effects on global weather and climate. El Niño typically causes dry conditions in southern Africa, South and Southeast Asia, northern South America, Central America, and Australia. For example, a strong El Niño in 2023 contributed to drought in southern Africa and the Zambezi basin, and exacerbated an existing drought in Panama. The combined effects of ENSO and climate change have intensified drought in many parts of the world.

Consequences and vulnerability of the population

Global droughts since 2023 have had widespread impacts, exposing and exacerbating existing social, economic and environmental vulnerabilities. Thousands of lives have been lost to drought-induced food shortages, particularly in Africa. Millions of people have faced food insecurity, malnutrition and displacement. In addition, there have been widespread water supply disruptions, agricultural failures and energy rationing.

Women and children, indigenous peoples, and isolated or rural communities are particularly vulnerable due to cultural norms, limited access to aid, and financial dependence on agriculture. Forced child marriage has been reported in Ethiopia and southern Africa as an extreme solution for desperate families.

Recommendations and ways forward

Addressing drought in the context of climate change requires immediate systemic solutions across sectors and international cooperation. Investments in early warning systems, knowledge sharing, sustainable water management and innovative agriculture are key.

Important measures include:

• Reducing water demand: Agriculture is the largest global consumer of freshwater, so reducing demand in this sector is crucial. Crops with low water consumption should be prioritized and native plants should be considered. Equally important is the repair and modernization of inefficient water systems that can lose significant amounts of water – for example, Mexico City loses up to 40 % of water to leaks, and some Catalan communities up to 80 %.
• Dry preparation: Governments should develop and maintain drought plans with proactive measures and early warning mechanisms. There is also a need to review the validity of existing water-sharing agreements, such as the 1944 Treaty between Mexico and the United States, as their sustainability is threatened by climate change and growing water needs.
• Diversification of energy sources: Countries dependent on hydropower are particularly vulnerable. Diversifying into solar, wind and geothermal energy can increase energy security and free up water for other purposes.
• Nature-based solutions: Agroforestry, soil management and wetland restoration can increase water conservation and reduce vulnerability.
• Community engagement: It is essential to involve women, indigenous peoples and rural communities in water policy decisions and monitoring drought impacts to ensure equitable and effective solutions. An example is the Drought Impact Tracker prototype, which allows residents to directly contribute information on drought impacts.

The impacts of drought, intensified by climate change, require comprehensive and collaborative efforts to build resilience and secure a sustainable future for all. Spring