Recent annual report The “Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024” (IGCC 2024), compiled by leading scientists such as Piers M. Forster et al., provides the most up-to-date scientific knowledge on the state of key climate indicators and the influence of human This report, based on the methodologies of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6), highlights the alarming acceleration of climate change and the need for urgent evidence-based decision-making.

Global warming is reaching critical levels.

One of the most striking findings is that the average global surface temperature in 2024 reached 1.52 °C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900). This makes it the first calendar year with a higher probability of exceeding 1.5°C since pre-industrial times. The average warming for the decade 2015–2024 was 1.24°C. Of this warming, 1.22°C was caused by human activities.

The rate of warming caused by human activity is unprecedented in the instrumental record and has reached 0.27 °C per decade in the period 2015-2024This rapid rate of warming is driven by a combination of historically high greenhouse gas emissions and a reduction in the cooling effect of aerosols. Notably, most land areas have already experienced warming in excess of 1.5°C since 1850–1900.

Greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations remain high.

Total global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reached 55.4 ± 5.1 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent (Gt CO2e) in 2023. Average annual GHG emissions for the decade 2014–2023 were 53.6 ± 5.2 Gt CO2e. Fossil fuels and industry accounted for about 70 % of global GHG emissions in 2023. However, there are indications that The rate of increase in CO2 emissions has slowed in the last decade compared to 2000.

Concentrations of the main greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continue to rise. In 2024, the global average surface concentrations of CO2 were 422.8 ppm, CH4 1929.7 ppb, and N2O 337.9 ppb. Concentrations of all three main greenhouse gases have increased since 2019.

The Earth's energy imbalance is increasing. The total anthropogenic effective radiative forcing (ERF) increased to 2.97 W m−2 in 2024 compared to 1750. The increase in ERF is due to the increasing positive influence of greenhouse gases and the decreasing negative influence of aerosols. For example, sulfur emissions from shipping have decreased since 2020, which has weakened the radiative forcing of aerosols.

The Earth's energy imbalance (EEI), which measures the accumulation of excess energy in the climate system, reached an average of 0.99 W m−2This represents 25 % increase compared to the value set by AR6 for the period 2006–2018. Approximately 90 % of this global warming since the 1970s has been absorbed by the oceans.

Sea level rise and the critical remaining carbon budget.

Global mean sea level (GMSLR) rose by 228.0 mm, corresponding to an average speed of 1.85 mm per year. The growth rate continues to accelerate, consistent with an increase in the Earth's energy balance.

The remaining carbon budget (RCB) for a 50 % probability of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is 130 Gt CO2 from the beginning of 2025At current levels of CO2 emissions (42 Gt CO2 per year in 2024), this budget would be exhausted in a little over 3 yearsIf emissions continue at the current rate, human-induced global warming is projected to reach 1.5°C in about 5 years. The budget has been reduced since previous IPCC assessments due to emissions between 2020 and 2024 and methodological updates.

Extreme land temperatures and changes in precipitation.  The average maximum annual land temperature (TXx) reached in 2024 2.35°C above pre-industrial levels, a new record. Over the past 10 years (2015–2024), TXx has warmed by 0.49°C. Global land precipitation shows significant interannual variability, with the influence of El Niño events evident.

This decade is critical. Due to human activity, global warming is increasing at an unprecedented rate, and although the rate of increase in greenhouse gas emissions has slowed, total emissions are at historically high levels. Close monitoring and rapid emission reductions are essential to avoid the worst-case scenarios of climate change. Spring

Glossary of key terms

• Anthropogenic warming: Warming of the climate system directly caused by human activities, such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use changes.
• AR6 (IPCC Sixth Assessment Report): A comprehensive report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that assesses the scientific knowledge on climate change.
• Aerosols: Small solid particles or droplets in the atmosphere that can affect climate by scattering or absorbing sunlight and influencing clouds. They can have a cooling or warming effect.
• CH4 (Methane): A potent greenhouse gas that stays in the atmosphere for a shorter time than CO2 but has a higher warming potential. It is a short-lived climate factor (SLCF).
• CO2e (Carbon Dioxide Equivalent): A measure used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases based on their global warming potential.
• 10-day average AR6: The definition of warming used in AR6, which represents the average of observed warming over the last 10-year period.
• EEI (Earth Energy Imbalance): The net difference between the amount of energy entering the Earth system and the amount of energy leaving it. A positive EEI indicates heat accumulation.
• ERA5: Fifth generation atmospheric reanalysis of global climate from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts).
• ERF (Effective Radiative Force): The net change in the energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system caused by an external change, such as greenhouse gas emissions. It is expressed in watts per square meter (W m−2).
• F-gases (Fluorinated gases): Greenhouse gases with a high global warming potential that are produced industrially and used in various applications.
• GHG (Greenhouse Gases): Gases in the Earth's atmosphere that absorb and emit radiant energy within the thermal range, causing the greenhouse effect. The main ones include CO2, CH4, and N2O.
• GMST (Global Mean Surface Temperature): The average temperature of the Earth's surface, commonly used as an indicator of global warming.
• GMSLR (Global Mean Sea Level Rise): Increase in global average sea level.
• GWI (Global Warming Index): One of the warming attribution methods used to quantify the human contribution to warming.
• Halogenated greenhouse gases: They include CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, PFCs and SF6, which are potent greenhouse gases.
• HFCs (Hydrofluorocarbons): A type of halogenated greenhouse gas used as a replacement for ozone-depleting substances.
• HTHH (Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai): The name of a volcano whose eruption in January 2022 had an impact on the Earth's climate, especially on stratospheric water vapor and aerosols.
• Internal variability: Natural fluctuations in the climate system (e.g. El Niño/La Niña) that are not caused by external forces.
• KCC (Kriging for Climate Change): A warming attribution method used to separate human influences from natural variability.
• La Niña-to-El Niño sequence: The transition from a cool phase (La Niña) to a warm phase (El Niño) of the Pacific Ocean, which significantly affects global temperatures.
• LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry): A sector in emissions accounting that includes emissions and removals of greenhouse gases related to human activities on land.
• N2O (Nitrous oxide): A greenhouse gas and short-lived climate factor (SLCF) with significant warming potential.
• Pre-industrial period: The period before large-scale industrial development, commonly defined as 1850–1900 for warming reference.
• PRIMAP Hist-CR: The dataset used to represent national inventory emissions is often associated with lower estimates of CH4 emissions.
• RCB (Remaining Carbon Budgets): The estimated amount of carbon dioxide that can still be released into the atmosphere to limit global warming to a specific target level.
• ROF (Regulated Optimal Fingerprinting): A warming attribution method used to quantify the human contribution to warming.
• SLCF (Short-term Climate Factors): Climate-affecting pollutants with a relatively short lifetime in the atmosphere (days to decades) that also have a strong warming or cooling effect (e.g. methane, soot, some aerosols).
• SR1.5 (IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C): IPCC report examining the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and the associated global emissions pathways.
• TXx (Average annual maximum temperature on land): An indicator of extreme temperatures, which represents the average maximum temperature recorded on land in one day per year.
• UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change): An international environmental treaty aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.
• WGIII (IPCC Working Group III): The part of the IPCC that deals with climate change mitigation, including emissions estimates.
• ZEC (Carbon Emissions Binding): The period during which the Earth will continue to warm even after carbon emissions stop, due to delayed climate processes.