Protected areas such as national parks, nature reserves and indigenous territories are a pillar of biodiversity conservation. However, climate change is increasingly threatening their effectiveness in protecting wildlife., ecosystem services and livelihoods. To meet the global target of protecting 30 % of the world’s land and water by 2030 – known as the 30x30 target of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework – scientists are calling for the incorporation of “climate-smart” approaches into the planning of new and existing protected areas.

Kristine Buenafe, lead author of a recent study published in Nature Reviews Biodiversity, highlights that without taking into account the dynamics of climate change, conservationists risk protecting areas where species may no longer be present in the future. It is therefore critically important to consider where best to locate new protected areas and ensure that they are “climate smart”, i.e. resilient to climate change.

Key climate-smart approaches The main strategies for developing a network of climate-smart protected areas include:

• Protecting future habitats of species: Takes into account shifts in species ranges.
• Protecting climate refuges: Identifies areas that serve as refuges from climate change. These areas are less affected by warming and should be prioritized for protection.
• Improving climate connectivity: Provides connectivity between areas to facilitate the movement of species and adaptation to changing climate conditions.
• Supporting adaptive potential: Focuses on areas that enhance the natural ability of species and ecosystems to adapt.

These approaches rely on scientific spatial models and prioritization assessments. No single climate-smart approach can take into account all the impacts of climate change on biodiversity, therefore, adopting multiple approaches, even if seemingly contradictory, can more effectively mitigate the effects of climate change.

Threat to tropical Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) Research has shown that many areas of high conservation value in tropical forests are already experiencing unprecedented temperature conditions. Brittany Trew of Harvard University found that almost two-thirds of key biodiversity areas (KBAs) in tropical forests are already transitioning to new temperature regimes due to climate change. This is particularly worrying because tropical forests are home to most of the world's biodiversity.

Because the environment beneath the forest canopy is climatically very stable, even small increases in temperature can lead to new climate regimes. Species that have evolved within a narrow range of thermal conditions are particularly at risk here. The study identified KBAs that act as climate refuges, and many of them are currently unprotected or only partially protected. These refugia are unevenly distributed; for example, in Asia and Oceania they are concentrated in New Guinea, coastal Indonesia and northern Australia, while in Latin America they are for example in the Peruvian Yungas, the Mexican Yucatán and the coastal Atlantic Forest of Brazil. Africa has far fewer such areas. Prioritizing the protection of these areas is crucial for the future resilience of tropical biodiversity.

Putting science into practice Organizations have already begun to explore practical ways to “climate-proof” protected areas. For example, the Climate Adaptation and Protected Areas (CAPA) initiative supports the implementation of adaptation measures in and around protected areas in Africa, Fiji and Belize. Their activities include habitat restoration, improving water retention capacity and reintroducing species to increase genetic diversity. They also emphasize the need to engage indigenous peoples and local communities, who are often the most vulnerable to climate change and underrepresented in climate discussions. Another example is the Protected Areas Resilient to Climate Change (PARCC) project in West Africa, which has laid the groundwork for assessing the impacts of climate change and building capacity for decision-makers.

Challenges and recommendations To achieve long-term success, adaptation plans must combine strategies that address the immediate needs of local communities and wildlife. Key to developing effective climate-smart conservation plans are also: cross-border cooperation and transparent consultation with stakeholders, including indigenous peoples, local communities, industry representatives, scientists and practitioners. It is also important to extend climate-smart approaches to freshwater and marine ecosystems, which are currently underrepresented in research, and to develop reproducible approaches for data-poor areas, particularly in the Global South.

Daniel Dunn, co-author of the study with Kristine Buenafe, warns that if we do not incorporate climate considerations into our 30x30 measures within the next five years, we will be “managing protected areas with the hope and prayer that everything will be there for our great-grandchildren.” It is essential that these approaches are adopted quickly for the long-term effectiveness of conservation. Spring

Glossary of key terms

• Protected Areas (PAs): Geographically defined areas that are designated, regulated and managed to achieve specific conservation objectives.
• Climate-Smart Protected Areas (CS PAs): Protected areas whose design and management explicitly consider and adapt to the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services.
• Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs): Places of global importance for the survival of biodiversity, identified based on standardized criteria and often prioritized for conservation.
• Microclimate: Climatic conditions in a small, confined area that may differ significantly from the general regional climate (e.g., under tree canopy).
• Temperature Novelty: An indicator that quantifies the extent to which recent temperature regimes differ from historical conditions, often expressed as the proportion of years with temperatures outside the historical range.
• Climate Refugia: Areas that remain relatively stable or less affected by climate change, thus providing refuge for species. They can be topographical (e.g. high altitude) or climatic (e.g. microclimate).
• 30×30 Global Biodiversity Framework (30×30 Target): An international goal aimed at protecting at least 30% of the world's land and inland waters, and 30% of oceans by 2030.
• Dispersal: The movement of organisms from their place of birth or origin to another location. It is crucial to the ability of species to adapt to climate change by shifting their ranges.
• Intraspecific Genetic Diversity: Genetic variability within a species. It is important for the adaptive potential of a species to changing environments, including climate change.
• Species Distribution Model (SDM): A model that predicts the geographic distribution of a species based on environmental variables, often used to predict future range shifts due to climate change.
• Vulnerability: The extent to which a system is sensitive to the negative impacts of climate change and is unable to adapt to them.
• Climate Connectivity (Climate Connectivity): The ability of species to migrate across land or sea to more climatically suitable areas. Includes considerations of corridors and barriers.
• Novelty Threshold: A predefined level of temperature novelty (e.g. 0.4 or 0.8) that indicates that conditions are so different from historical ones that they pose a significant threat to biodiversity.
• Temperature Range: The difference between maximum and minimum temperature, often used in the context of habitats or physiological tolerances of species.