The global climate system is experiencing a significant change as the La Niña phenomenon, known for cooling the planet and affecting weather around the world, has ended after three months, according to the US agency NOAA. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) the weak La Niña that only appeared in January – much later than expected – is now a thing of the past. The Earth is currently in neutral phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycleThis condition, in which ENSO Alert System Status is not active, is the mildest of the three possible (El Niño, La Niña, neutral), but it also makes long-term weather forecasts more difficult because none of the extreme forces (cooling or warming of the Pacific Ocean) currently significantly affect global climate patterns.

Current conditions reflect a persistent ENSO-neutral state. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near average over most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the latest weekly El Niño index values ranging from -0.1°C to +0.4°C. Subsurface ocean temperatures were near or above average over the 180°-100°W range, with above-average temperatures at greater depths in the central and western Pacific. Low-level winds were easterly over the east-central Pacific throughout the month, while high-speed winds were mostly near average across the equatorial Pacific. Convection was enhanced over Indonesia. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific reflects an ENSO-neutral state.

La Niña is defined as cooling of surface water in the central equatorial Pacific OceanIts typical impacts are far-reaching and include more hurricanes in the Atlantic (although not this year), drought in the southern and western United States, and more rainfall in Indonesia, northern Australia, and southern Africa. Studies show that the consequences of La Niña are more often economically demanding than during an El Niño or neutral phase. For example, last year, its phase caused droughts, food shortages and extreme heat in some regions.

In Europe, the effects of La Niña are most pronounced in the winter months. There are two key areas in the Pacific Ocean – the Eastern (EP) and the Central (CP) – where the cold anomaly will occur. Cold in the EP area usually means fewer storms and more high pressure areas, leading to drier and colder weather in Western Europe. Conversely, cold in the CP area supports a stronger jet stream and more storms, leading to wetter, windier and milder winters. However, it is important to note that even though these are models, meteorologists warn that Other factors also affect European weather such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), stratospheric winds, or convection over the Indian Ocean.

As for future predictions, ENSO-neutral state is very likely in the summer of 2025 in the Northern Hemisphere (with an 82 % chance in June-August). This condition is projected to continue into the winter of 2025-26, although confidence in this scenario is lower. For the November-January period, there is a 48 % chance of a continuation of the neutral condition and a 41 % chance of a return of La Niña. IRI and North American Multi-Model Ensemble forecasts also suggest that ENSO-neutral is most likely until winter 2025-26, with a smaller chance that La Niña could form during this winter.

This discussion is result a collaborative effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS), and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center website. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for July 10, 2025. Spring