The European Union is on track to meet its 2030 climate targets, according to recent information from Brussels. The European Commission, after analyzing the plans of the member states, expectsthat emissions will fall by 54 % by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, which is very close to the target of a reduction of 55 %.

This optimism is supported by recent progress – the bloc has already reduced emissions by 37 % compared to 1990, including significant decrease by 8 % in 2023Most member states are also reportedly in line with the target of a 42.5% share of renewable energy in total consumption by 2030. Climate chief Wopke Hoekstra said that despite the “geopolitical winter” and ongoing events, there was “good news” and the EU was “on track” to meet its 2030 target.

Despite the progress, the EU faces a difficult balancing act between supporting European industry in competition with the US and China, strengthening defences against Russia and combating climate change, which is wreaking “devastation at an alarming rate” with fires and floods. Hoekstra stressed that "ambition on paper must match ambition in the real world"Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen added that while there are "reasons to be proud", "we cannot be complacent" and the EU "is not yet where it needs to be".

The Commission also pointed out inequalities between Member States in the area of emissions reductions and highlighted the challenges of forest protection and carbon storage. She specifically mentioned Belgium, Estonia and Poland, which have not yet submitted their energy and climate plans, and urged them to do so “without delay”. According to Giulia Nardi of the Climate Action Network Europe, the 2030 targets are achievable, but "without effective national policies and credible financing – which are largely absent from most updated plans – implementation will lag behind".

Uncertainty remains regarding more ambitious targets for 2040. The EU has set itself the goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050Brussels wants to agree intermediate target for 2040, with the Commission aiming to reduce emissions by 90 % compared to 1990 levels. However, negotiations on the 2040 target between EU countries are stalled and the Commission has so far refrained from formally proposing a 90 % reduction. Some countries, such as the Czech Republic and Italy, consider this target “unrealistic”.

The Commission is considering more flexibility in calculations for 2040, including purchasing carbon credits on international marketsThe EU executive insists it will submit a formal proposal before the summer (2025) and stresses that the bloc will be ready for the next UN climate conference, COP30, in Belém, Brazil, in November.

At the same time, there are concerns among environmental groups. Environmentalists fear a “complete collapse” of the European Green Deal. In recent months, the Commission has reportedly been “cutting red tape” for businesses. The source also suggests that the political landscape has changed with the rise of right-wing parties across Europe. Brussels has taken steps to simplify environmental rules affecting businesses, with France and Germany calling for further repeal, while also delaying its law to combat deforestation.

Overall, the EU is expected to be on track to achieve its 2030 climate targets, but achieving longer-term goals and ensuring their implementation in practice faces significant political, economic and implementation challenges.

The article is based on information published on May 28, 2025. Spring