Using “Imaginaries” to explore the future

The report uses a set of four imagined futures, called ‘imaginaries’, that the EEA and its Eionet (European Environment Information and Observation Network) network developed in 2022. These imaginaries provide contrasting images of what a sustainable Europe could look like in 2050, and serve as four distinct “lenses” through which to examine what sustainable production and consumption systems might emerge in the future. The four imaginaries are:

• Technocracy for the common good: Sustainability is achieved through state control at the national level that prioritizes the collective interests of society, using digital technologies for extensive monitoring and control.
• Unity in adversity: It focuses on solidarity and interregional support in the distribution of resources and the reduction of wealth disparities.
• The great decoupling: Innovative companies are key players in achieving technological breakthrough, especially in the bioeconomy, which allows decoupling GDP growth from adverse environmental impactsA sustainable yet consumer-oriented lifestyle depends on affordability of consumption, social and political stability, and trust in markets.
• Ecotopia: A profound social transformation has replaced profit maximization and consumerism with values of sufficiency, justice, and respect for nature. Nature has intrinsic value, and power is decentralized to local civic actors.

The report focuses on four key production and consumption systems: the food system, the mobility system, the built environment system and the energy system. Chapter 4 describes in detail what these systems could look like in 2050 within each of the imaginaries, in terms of production, consumption and provision of access to the system’s products and services. For example:

• Food system: In all imaginaries it is emphasized transition to sustainable protein sources (plant-based, cultured meat) as an important strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and resource use. Precision agriculture is also widespread.
• Mobility system: Plays an important role multimodality and public transport, often supplemented by digitalization and automated systems to optimize flows. Reducing the need for long-distance travel is also part of some imaginaries.
• Built environment system: In all imaginaries the emphasis is on redesign, repurposing and renovation of existing buildings to extend their lifespan, improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions. Development often integrates natural ecosystems.
• Energy system: In all imaginaries there is key development and use of renewable energy sources to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. In some scenarios, strategic deployment of pure hydrogen is applied.

Resilience to future shocks

The report also examined how future shocks – probable extreme events, which could significantly change the political landscape – could affect a sustainable Europe in 2050. These upheavals served to stress testing imaginaries and identification of vulnerabilities. Examples of shocks considered include widespread failure of digital systems, the uninhabitability of large areas around the world, a global financial crisis, or a global public health crisis. Examining these impacts helped identify set of capacitiesthat would help society navigate systemic changes and build resilience.

Capacity areas for transformational change

Based on the analysis, the report identified areas of capacity needed to manage sustainable transformations and build resilience to shocks. These capacities fall into several thematic groups:

• Collaborative and anticipatory management: including multi-level governance and inclusive frameworks.
• Social engagement and creativity: involving citizens and organized civil society in decision-making processes.
• Connection with nature and empathy: including education focused on empathy and collective well-being.
• Spatial planning and multifunctional land use.
• AI and digitalization: safe and trustworthy deployment of AI for the public good.
• Preparedness for shocks: including financial reserve and resilient public care and education.

This report comes at a time when the EU is seeking to strengthen its competitiveness and ensure sustainable prosperity. It represents a current challenge to incorporating foresight (strategic anticipation) into decision-making processes and the development of policy responses that include systemic and long-term thinking. The work aims to to inspire, stimulate discussion and broaden understanding. Spring

Glossary of key terms

• Agroecology: Agricultural practices integrated with natural ecosystems to support ecosystem services.
• Agrivoltaics: Using land for both food production and solar photovoltaic energy.
• Built environment: A system covering buildings, human settlements and related infrastructure.
• Cellular agriculture: The process of producing food of animal origin directly from animal cells.
• Circular economy: A system aimed at extending the life of products through reuse, renovation, repair and remanufacturing.
• Shared living: Living spaces designed for higher occupancy and support for shared living and care.
• Nuclear power systems: Local networks and communities that adapt to their energy needs and available resources.
• Future disruptions: Plausible extreme developments that could significantly change the political environment.
• Future literacy: The ability to understand why and how to "use the future."
• Imaginary: Believable and contrasting images of what a sustainable Europe could look like in 2050.
• Mobility system: A system covering the movement of people and goods, including infrastructure and behavior.
• Nature-inspired solutions: Solutions inspired and supported by nature that also provide environmental, social and economic benefits.
• Personalized nutrition: Diets and recommendations tailored to individual needs and preferences.
• Precision design (in agriculture): Adapting seeds to regional soil and climate conditions.
• Precision farming: Using technologies such as sensors and AI to optimize agricultural operations.
• Prosumption: Individuals or communities that both produce and consume energy.
• Regenerative land use: Practices that improve soil health, promote biodiversity, and increase carbon sequestration.
• Traditional ingredients: Raw materials obtained from natural sources.
• Secondary raw materials: Raw materials obtained from waste.
• Sufficiency: A value focused on reducing consumption and moving away from consumerism.
• Sustainable intensification: Increasing yields while minimizing environmental impacts.
• Food system: A system encompassing all elements and activities related to the production, processing, distribution and consumption of food.
• System dynamics: Properties of systems, such as nonlinear dynamics, feedback effects, entrapment, trade-offs, and load shifting, that lead to emergent interactions between systems.
• Transformational resistance: The capacity of systems in transformation to successfully cope with significant changes and move towards long-term goals despite (or even because of) systemic stresses, sudden shocks, or crises